my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year
hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.
for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):
i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.
for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.
see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:
December 15, 2008 | Categories: 2008 stock trends, aapl options, put and call option practice plays, Southwestern Energy Company, stocks going up, trading options, x | Tags: 2009 stock picks, aapl, amat, broken stock downtrends, call and put option practice trades for december 2008, dick davis dividend book, HOKU, ma, mini christmas claus rally 2008, stock trades going into the new year, swn, the stock market and gambling, v, x, X Steel Company | 2 Comments
call options plays worked +45%, RIMM drops hard after earnings release, stocks bottoming
the market seemed to get more optimistic today. warren buffet’s edgy deal profiting from Goldman Sachs (GS) couldn’t hurt. without even looking at my charts i know that congestion would be shown with stocks starting to break out. after the market today Research in Motion (RIMM) dove down on earnings. it just shows how unpredictable stocks are releasing earnings. stocks across the board are down a lot and i’m curious if investors fear more after RIMM’s -20% drop. i do know also the Republican party threw out the bailout plan Democratics were happy with. i’m sure this creates some room for panic and turbulance in the markets as well. i will likely be practicing put options tomorrow unless the bailout plan is passed through law and okayed by everyone. should Fed bernaneke really be taken serious? if he just gave “why” an answer with “facts” rather then just vague statements i think everyone would take the Fed more seriously.
see below call option plays closed today:
September 28, 2008 | Categories: put and call option practice plays | Tags: aapl, bailout plans, big drop after earnings release, call option practice plays, congress, fed chairman bernanke, goog, gs, profit, rig, rimm, september 2008, swn, trading options, v, warren buffet | Leave a comment
put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom
currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.
see put option practice plays below:
Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).
September 23, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, bank bail outs, bottoming signs, doji evening stars, fastest growing stocks, fslr, goog, hans, ICE, NTRI, NYX, put option practice plays, rig, rimm, september 2008, swn, v, what will happen to tax payers | Leave a comment
quick call option plays – short plays
The following stocks I’m going to try to play short call plays to see if the second day they come back with positive buying if not then the correct thing would be to continue practicing them on puts.
September 11, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, call and put option practice plays, flsr, rig, swn, v | Leave a comment
wild market seems like. trading blind.
It seems since I got back from patrol in march 08′ that I’ve been the total slacker journaling in my market diary, practice trades, and just keeping up with my favorite stocks. I basically traded blind in April-May and got what I deserved losing my account. The market has been so wild. Like today FSLR down almost 40 pts in a month and specifically down -$15 today. GOOG has been moving up finally and it’s PEG of 1.00 deserves the stock to do so. A $600-700 price target looks really realistic with all the billions, new technologyies, and still growth. Then there is oil and energy stocks. It’s a no brainer oil stocks were going to move higher and pull back. Lastly theres big growth stocks like MA and V. I have to admit I was not trading V at the right time at $82 twice. When I saw is laying dead at $77 that was the right pull back price now currently hit $87 this move would have been plenty to earn 100% on, but I guess you keep learning and eating dirt along the way…
Still waiting to close. VA appraisers most be stereotyped to take forever to finish so now I have to wait the full amount which is June 6th supposedly to get my keys. My refinancing if everything goes smooth will be June 9th. My home was appraised at $117k in Virginia. I’m still happy with that with the markets fluctuating in housing industry. That’s still almost a 50% gain over 3 years on the purchase price. My home in Hawaii was appraised higher then the selling price so the appraiser knew it was worth well more then what I paid. Usually a home is only appraised at the loan value not more over while mine was appraised $10k over the purchase price meaning the true market value is around $60-80k in the money full of equity. This is pleasing in the chance that in a few years I could earn over $100k would be awesome if I did decide to sell. Even then I’m going to turn this into my dream home (or should I say apartment) so I might really end of loving it.
May 29, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: appraisals, big returns, condo, dream home in hawaii, equity, fslr, goog, housing industry, ma, refinancing investment properties, stocks, v | 4 Comments
Sell off completed. – Bought more V calls. Bought Oahu Home – India Business Venture news
So the market sold off thursday and friday. I expected the market to dump friday. Historically it seems there is more bad news on a friday then good. I suppose the CEO’s can take off quickly on their yachts and forget all the bad earnings they just reported.
I bought 10 more Visa MAY 85 Calls – out of the money this time. My last calls went up to $5.80. It would have been nice to sell out and rebuy back at $1.55 like I did on Friday, but work prevents me to and my GTC order was up to high I admit. I lowered my GTC order at $5 expecting Visa to move back up monday through wednesday with the market recovering some positions especially in a hot IPO like Visa that is a money maker and growth creator. I could be wrong I have been before! Yet I only have like 4-5 days to hit my GTC order and with time against me I’m looking at Tue or Wed then I have to sell my calls and either take a loss or bigger loss = $0 expired calls. Currently I have around $2000 in the position.
My India venture is not running smoothly. It is so wishy washy. I’ve talked with other American entrepreneurs who use India either as a partner or outsoucing and the rumors seem very true that there is a major problem in communication. I keep asking my partner to email our work completed for our customers such as a Daily Project Report which I created. All the project manager has to do is type in a 2-3 sentence summary of the work completed for the day and email it to the customer, myself, and my partner running the business. Does this sound like too much? When you continually see bitching customer emails and communication is definitely unclear you think doing what your American partner asks is completely understandable not cumbersome. All I want is just 2-3 sentences for me and our customers. This keeps them off our back, gives them an up to date understanding of what we are doing for their business, and creates a legal log as proof with an email trail showing we are completing work. Now why after over a week asking for this to be done daily it isn’t??? Two words = No Control. I have no control. All I can do as an investor and partner in this India business is to invest in them and realistically “hope” they succeed and finish the jobs the current mismanaged way they are doing it. I feel no one is listening to me and taking my views and thoughts into consideration. I don’t like managing other people, but clearly there are problems and a daily update for the customer would 100% clearify what the hell is going on! I hope my partner starts listening to me and let me help him create better clearer customer satisfaction. Business to business is all about referrals and currently being in the customers position even if we do have problems with them is keep things clear and understanding how they think. I don’t think my partner really cares and that is going to create monsterous problems in the future building our business together. I wish I was there so I could be with the team, write a brief summary, and report to the customers myself. We are trying to act like a big corporation but obviously we are acting like a small two person business! hahahah. Personally, I think showing customers we are about the IT solution projects we do for them will boost our customers thoughts about our professionalism and giving us referrals to keep us in business.
Anyway. I’m buying a condo in Hawaii. I can’t remember if I mentioned that. It will be a 1023 sqft, 3bed/2bath, 2 parking space condo in a town called Mililani in Oahu. It is centrally located in Oahu and the back door to the North Shore. I got it bank owned which was abandoned and got it for $235,000 around $60,000 under the 2007 tax assessment and under $80,000 2008 market assessment value. It is a great price and in a very nice attractive neighborhood. It might sound expensive but similar costs over $325k – 600k. I’ve already put an Ad out for roommates even though I don’t even have it in my possession yet. The kitchen needs to be redone so I know that is going to cost me $10k. I’m going to sell my boat and take that money to repair the kitchen. It will be a 30-45 minute drive to work, but well worth it finally owning and living in something I’m going to love. Plus renting it will not be a problem if I ever leave Hawaii and I got a VA loan being military so I recevied 100% financing and no PMI. So I definitely got a bargain and made big money by just getting ahold of it negotiating with the bank.
I suppose I will keep blogging for you 1-5 blog readers curious about what another entrepreneur is up to. Please if for some reason I make you super rich pass it forward and share the success with me financially or making me a partner 😉
May 12, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: blogging, buying a house in hawaii, giving customers 100% satisfaction, india business venture, mililani condo, parnter communication problems, recent pull back, reports, trading stock options, v, visa may 85 call options | 6 Comments
Bought V May 85 Calls I-T-M. Thinking a soon sell-off…
I love Visa (V) and I bought 1 contract today at $4. This IPO has a higher PE + double the capitilization of Mastercard (MA) so it should surpass MA in price currently at $298! With Visa @ $86 seems very undervalued and at a bargain price now publicly offered in my opinion especially with a bigger better branded name on more credit cards.
I bought another SWN SEP 40 Call @ $6.10 (same price) so now I have two contracts with the price currently hovering around $7.50 a contract. My GTC is at $8.10 even though I want to raise it I’d rather put it in a faster moving stock like Visa.
I’ve got this subconcious feeling looking at some over inflated stock price charts that some big stocks are ready to sell-off by investors taking a breather and dealing with other factors such as their homes falling in price such as First Solar, Bidu, and Google. Yeah, I know major growth stocks with good stories, but my daily and weekly charts seem to indicate engulfing bearish candles and if within reason (week) or so they don’t move up much higher then they should follow the current down trend further down. I would short them, but I’ve been burned way too many times losing money. So until I see a big break in trend or big move I will not listen to my gutt and instead not trade the stocks at all to be safe then sorry.
I’m extremely confident that AAPL, SWN, and V will continue a strong uptrend with of course dips and pull backs in the markets, but will go UP without reason for big reasons that are making the stocks $$$.
My order on V MAY 85 Calls:
5/6/2008 10:45:47 AM (ET):
Description: V MAY 85 Call
Stock: V at 86.93
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $414.95
GTC @ $8 +100% <— Goal time within 3-7 days
May 6, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, bidu, fslr, goog, gutt feeling, ma, market analysis, option trade, p/e, sell-off stock prediction, shorting stocks, swn, v, visa | 2 Comments
what’s up with apple options. up +6, but option -1.50?
Hmmmm….I thought I would be checking out of my option today, but instead of it moving with the price increase it actually fell in price. I do understand options are adjusted in price, but this usually happens on mondays or end of the month. I’m a bit confused of why my option is now not 6-7 dollars at the strike price of $175. I suppose I’ll have to wait for Apple to make a full move to $175 to sell out at a reasonable profit. I’m definitely glad I didn’t go 100% in with my money because all the May options seems adjusted today by the market maker. That bastard. This is the first time the stock goes up and my options go down dramatically (-25%). Now AAPL at $169 (bought around $163) and waiting for Friday’s movement. With MSFT’s unhappy earnings being a major player in the market it might bring down other tech stocks such as AAPL.
I find it funny that all those blog posters on buying apple inc. on a dip never got a chance unless it dips next week. I think since it had a positive day after earnings that it will continually go up in price for a while with less pull backs proving its a major player in computer sales.
As for now I have to wait until I’m in the money to sell out about up 100%. Two stocks I want to play long-term are Southwestern Energy which just went through a 2:1 stocksplit and moving up at $40 and Visa (V) a new financial credit stock which is highly more popular then Mastercard (MA) and trading at $71. If I had a choice of investing all my money it would be divided between these two stocks and not Apple. I like Apple, but the technology market is weird, although people are always going to use their credit cards and with ever increasing cars oil is still needed and natural resources means big profit.
April 24, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl earnings, apple inc blog, ma, oil profit, stocksplit 2:1, swn, v, visa, weird option movement | 1 Comment