I did a minor report on what I thought of Hansen Foods Co. (HANS @ $41.52) about a year ago. Many people search HANS and find my blog and read it so I thought I’d post again on the Monster Energy drink trend innovator. First Monster energy drinks are still a hit. My rack on the ship is full of the Monster Kaos fruit energy drink including my favorite Red Bull. I thought it was a super buy at around $33 trending up and it was. You would of made at least +17pts or almost 40% ROI. Now HANS @ $41.52 still looks like a great growth play on a winning company that wins over youth and sports activities, but although it has a favorable PEG Ratio score of .80 well below a value considered stock of 1.00 its trend is definitely moving down with the market so I wouldn’t say buy up just quite yet until the market has clearly bottomed out. Somebody wrote on a stock forum “not to catch a falling knife when falling” a teacher taught me that too. At times I’ve tried to catch that falling knife only to lose thousands of dollars and have a miserable weekend. HANS’s F/ PE is around 20 not as high as its PE of 32. I think it could fall somewhat more.
Recently I’ve been having debates over where the market is going to go. To tell anyone I have no clue. I’m just watching it as it comes, but what I do see is major support wicks on the bearish and bullish sides depending on what stocks I’ve looked at. For most I see spinners meaning indecisiveness/uncertainty. For the most park the major peak came in October 07′ and now a second smaller peak has occured just this week and stocks continuted to fall afterwards meaning the stock market in general should move much lower again before created a “W” type correction. If anything I’ve learned from any teacher is that the next 2 years should be all down with a few bullish runs, but small. So is HANS a BUY? Maybe since it isn’t a tech stock it could move up with positive news and performing earnings reports, but if it is like Apple (AAPL @ $166) that falls or goes up to just about any major news that comes out then it might be falling back to the $30’s once again which in a year or two would be a super BUY. I really consider looking at charts and seeing where the DJIA and NAS are going before buying it even if you are a big fan of the energy drink and company.
Until the big exchanges and averages start changing direction I would play PUTS on just about anything. There are some stock splits coming up so I might be playing CALLS on these two which are BWA and DE.
Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.
So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.
A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.
As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.