stocks jump off bollinger bands – FSLR expected too
I had a hunch today might jump up some after around 2 days of losses, but on the charts everything was still moving down. The only precise clear signal I saw for a real call option trade was on FSLR with it’s big red candle dipping below the BB’s and on smaller charts showing technicals moving up in the morning.
Today stocks really moved with force. I noticed on the charts and highs/lows how much of a swing there was showing major candle wick buying support/confidence. I have to admit the good thing about practice trading and figuring out which side of the trade you should be on is that you can be wrong and not lose money! Currently looking at AAPL charts on the 233 min. there is a clear picture of what happened today and likely on every chart I look at too. For the past week and half stocks have been falling and today from what I see will create a few up days or call option practice trades. Currently many of PUT trades were profitable even though they closed higher because they fell lower.
For a moment I considered staying in the Puts for tomorrow, but the right thing would be do to close them since I know stocks are about to move higher and change sides. The only ones within yesterdays practice trades that would have worked would have been ones hitting low low’s. (or +$1-2 on option)
Now, I still have my “ifs” because also on all the 55 min charts it shows each white candle getting smaller and smaller not hitting top BB’s (except AAPL). So this could also bring me to the conclusion that todays boost could be short-lived and fall again hard tomorrow. I’m going to play dcalls because the charts say a second day of upward movement, but we are still in all downtrends currently. So since I’m not playing long-term Puts I will trade what I see on a weekly basis.
See below with completed practice trades 11/12/08 and new 11/13/08 following:
SOLD
BOUGHT
Sold call/put option practice plays – +130%
I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.
Although on big charts shows uptrend, short-term stocks will continue to fall again
The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?
My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN
my practice trades for the rest of the week put and call options – ICE has a real unique chart currently showing “W” reversal.
currently the only chart that stands out from many perfectly downtrends technical charts is ICE with a plain view “W” support bullish reversal on dailly and 233 minute charts. check it out for yourself. since it’s by itself I don’t think i would trade it as a real trade just because everything is moving down so if the market keeps moving down by force it will too.
put and call option practice trades on V,AAPL,ATVI,FSLR,GOOG,HANS,RIMM,SBUX,EOG,SWN,RIG,NYX,MA,DKS,SHLD,ICE
after -777pt DJIA drop predictable “sold off” rebound begins
I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.
Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.
Here are my call option plays for tomorrow:
practice call option trades
call options plays worked +45%, RIMM drops hard after earnings release, stocks bottoming
the market seemed to get more optimistic today. warren buffet’s edgy deal profiting from Goldman Sachs (GS) couldn’t hurt. without even looking at my charts i know that congestion would be shown with stocks starting to break out. after the market today Research in Motion (RIMM) dove down on earnings. it just shows how unpredictable stocks are releasing earnings. stocks across the board are down a lot and i’m curious if investors fear more after RIMM’s -20% drop. i do know also the Republican party threw out the bailout plan Democratics were happy with. i’m sure this creates some room for panic and turbulance in the markets as well. i will likely be practicing put options tomorrow unless the bailout plan is passed through law and okayed by everyone. should Fed bernaneke really be taken serious? if he just gave “why” an answer with “facts” rather then just vague statements i think everyone would take the Fed more seriously.
see below call option plays closed today:
call option plays
put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom
currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.
see put option practice plays below:
put option practice trades
Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).
new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)
I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.
new trend chart technical analysis for January 11, 2008 stocks
I’ve got the time to upload some new trend charts I’m studying to see them just click on the flickr trend picture column or click here to see my flickr page of all my trend charts.
trend charts include: AAPL, ATVI, C, DKS, FXI, HOKU, HANS, MA, INP, TTM, YHOO, GOOG, RIG, SWN, RIMM
check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.
check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.
btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.
whiped out! – starting off with $1000 again – i got a poised Apple!
Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.
So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.
A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.
As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.
Paul Meyer 
Market moving up again during July 09′ earnings.
For the majority of companies earnings have been better than expected (duh). When analyst make price targets so low and earnings low because they think consumers aren’t buying suddenly it looks like companies are doing really great. Well, in my opinion they are and they aren’t. One of my most followed stocks, Apple Inc, is doing quite well. It seems everybody has an iPhone these days and all those other look alike’s just aren’t the same as the iPhone. It’s just awesome. Do I have one? Nope. I’m too cheap, but will likely get one in Jan 10′ when I can get the upgrade cheaper and hopefully by then prices will come down again. I’ve predicted Apple’s stock from $105 to $130, then from $136-120 drop, then predicted its $135-159 price move just recently. I can’t wait to trade it once I feel my practicing is up to par. I plan to heavily practice trade in August. I do expect the stock to fall again. I did think this summer’s move was pretty large in comparison to other summers and I guess it makes sense with most prices extremely low compared to their PE/earnings. So I suppose real estate prices will follow the market as soon as everyone’s emotions get really optimistic again. I do hear a lot of positive comments on channels like CNBC which is a good sign that the main stream is saying “buy” softly. I’m a bit surprised with RIMM not following AAPL. Usually it mimics everything the stock does.
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July 27, 2009 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, Apple Inc., CNBC positive market comments, investor, July 2009 earnings season, paul meyer, rimm, summer trend going up | Leave a comment