Looking at my charts and current economic market conditions I came to two conclusions.
#1 The market just had a mini-rally, lost the rally, and is continuing in the major downtrend
#2 Many stocks charts show a possible “V” hitting the bottom, hitting bollinger bands on weekly big charts, which MIGHT mean a possible “W” major trend reversal may happen in the next few weeks we’ll see if that last down run will be the last at least for a while.
We’ve been in a full down down down for a full year. It’s likely possible to continue it, but stocks are at real discount prices looks at X and AKS and AAPL which its retail stores are constantly SO BUSY you’d think we were in a real bull buying consumer spending crazy type market. I also like SWN, FSLR, and QQQQ but since everything says “down more” currently I’m playing PUTS except for FSLR which is being pushed down so hard and on shorter charts shows tomorrow it will likely spike some up before moving down more. All my plays are short term likely to be out tomorrow or the following day. I find being in for just one market day increases my profit/time in play for trading options.
see trades below (currently up +700% since august on trades):
November 13, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, AKS, call and put option practice trades, downtrend continues, fslr, november 2008 stock options picks, QQQQ, stocks at a deep discount X, swn | Leave a comment
I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.
November 7, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: -500pts DJIA, aapl, ATS, goog, market moving, november crash 2008, practice option trades on FSLR, QQQQ, rimm, second day fall, stocks falling after election day, swn, the trend is your friend | 1 Comment
The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?
My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN
November 6, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, AKS, call and put option practice play picks, continued downtrending charts, continued october crash 08, fslr, goog, market moving events that move stocks, QQQQ, rimm, southwestern energy company review, stocks falling in november 2008, swn, the day after election | Leave a comment
Another -500pt drop today for the DJIA. A -15% drop for SWN down to $26 again! These market swings are ridiculous. I’d hate to own stock right now OR trade options. It has been very unpredictable so the phrase “missed money is better then lossed money” is sounding better and better right now while staying out of the market, watching, studying, and practicing my techniques.
Put options are the definite play here still. October 2008 is still crashing. RIMM even at $48. One stock I did read about that really struck me as a great turnaround stock once the market changes its mood is AKS – AK Steel Q3 earnings call. Low profits, but still “solid balance sheets” with a PEG of .16!!!! And still very profitable with new material price increases even with steel prices coming down at the minute. It lowered its forecasts, BUT forecasts for the stock and cashflow are still “solid” and bringing in real cash (hundreds of millions). The stock ended today at only $12 with a high this year of $90. I will be watching in closely with QQQQ’s for likely long long term call option positions after the President is elected.
October 23, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: 2008 call picks, AKS, big DJIA drop, companies with solid balance sheets and cashflow, low peg stocks, october 08 market crash, put and call option practice trade picks, QQQQ, swn, trading for a living | Leave a comment
I’m happy the Fed cut rates because I’m purchasing a home in Oahu (Mililani, HI). So hopefully my actually interest rate for my loan will go down as well. Apple spiked up to $180 and sold me out around $178 at $8. I likely could have gotten more, but I can’t watch the market so I’m happy that my GTC order was sold out. As for QQQQ. I’m just going to take a small loss and take that couple hundred dollars and put it into something else like Visa (V) because the QQQQ’s did not move like I thought they would with all the Tech moving.
My order:
4/30/2008 11:08:37 AM (ET):
Symbol: .APVEO
Description: AAPL MAY 175 Call
Stock: AAPL at 178.75
Action: Sold To Close
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $8.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.01
Net Amt: $785.04
Bought Price $5.40
Profit $220
Sold out of my QQQQ calls:
4/30/2008 3:47:52 PM (ET):
Symbol: .QQQEX
Description: QQQQ MAY 50 Call
Stock: QQQQ at 47.26
Action: Sold To Close
Quantity: 30 contract(s)
Price: $0.10
Commission: $45.00
Reg Fees: $0.01
Net Amt: $254.99
Bought Price $.14
Loss $120 (-$150 w/fees)
April 30, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: 2008, aapl may call options, fed rate cut wednesday april 30, loss, profit, QQQQ | 3 Comments
I was lucky and that’s about it with a big news piece on Nutrisystems getting a new CEO and saying new revenue will be much more positive. This news brought the stock up 25% from $15 up to $19.90. My options were sold out right over $19 so I was very fortunate to take a small loss and get sold out before they expired.
Symbol: .NSIDD
Description: NTRI APR 20 Call
Stock: NTRI at 19.74
Action: Sold To Close
Quantity: 2 contract(s)
Price: $1.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.01
Net Amt: $185.04
Still in positions for AAPL MAY & QQQQ MAY 2008 Calls. Currently up 50% in AAPL calls.
A strong trend is building in Apple after the new iPhone annoucement and lots of positive news on all the earnings the company is making.
April 9, 2008 | Categories: trading stock options | Tags: aapl, Apple Inc., april 2008, NTRI, nutrisystem earnings, QQQQ, stock news | 3 Comments
My two recent option plays:
Symbol: .QQQEX
Description: QQQQ MAY 50 Call
Stock: QQQQ at 44.13
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 30 contract(s)
Price: $0.14
Commission: $45.00
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $465.00
bought qqqq’s because I think heavily nasdaq tech stocks are ready for a run into april earnings.
also on the weekly chart the stock rsi is about to cross over and stock looks to move up big
Symbol: .APVEI
Description: AAPL MAY 145 Call
Stock: AAPL at 143.22
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 3 contract(s)
Price: $9.95
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $2,999.95
bought aapl calls going into late april earnings call + big news on new iPhone which will be annouced in June 08. will likely sell calls before earnings then rebuy calls after earnings going into the new iPhone annoucement. also charts in my opinion show a real U shaped bottom reversal moving up on daily charts, weekly stock rsi has already crossed going up. 2 white soldiers on weekly breaking downtrend.
March 31, 2008 | Categories: aapl, Apple, april earnings, call options, news, QQQQ, tech stocks, technical charts, where is the market going? | Tags: Apple, april earnings, call options, may, new iphone, news, QQQQ, tech stocks, where is the market going? | 1 Comment
Paul Meyer 