Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!
So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).
So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.
My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]
BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.
BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.
November 27, 2007 | Categories: 2007 market crash, 2007 option picks, 2007 stock picks, 50 - 200 day moving averages, aapl, apple inc stock, asia stock crash, bsc, china index fund, citigroup stock, dicks sporting goods, DKS, fxi, gme, goldman sachs, goog, google stock, gs, ma, mastercard stock, NTRI, nutri systems stock, rig, shld, swn, trading stock options, why is ntri falling? | Tags: 2007 short term future outlook, aapl, bsc, buying call and put options, C, DKS, fxi, gme, goog, gs, M, ma, NTRI, rig, shld, stock market blog, swn | 2 Comments
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $32) up 7% since my last post.
Dicks Sporting Goods stores (DKS @ $32) stock price is up 7% from after I reported on its earnings. The sporting goods retail stock has been slipping with all the other major giant retailers such as Sears Holding (SHLD @ $112) and Macy’s (M @ $30). Since earnings it has risen about $2 after being upgraded the second day after earnings by Citigroup (C @ $31). Practicing the play on options/real trade you would of made a 75% ROI on JAN 30 CALLS for DKS. Bought around $2 and sold around $3.50. Of course you would of traded this if you had your head screwed on straight and were not in demolishing belittling DEC 30 PUTS for Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $171.50) up probably 6 pts from where I bought the PUTS which are going to $0. Yes – yes – yes the likely hood that I could of took a small loss, well big to most people, at -$300 on a $1000 trade (-30%). I’m currently at a value of $250 for my 10 contracts. I think Apple is a hot company, but I was 100% sure this second run one the last until the New Year. I was definitely wrong. I think I need to take a long break from trading any stock. Even a majority of my stock practice plays are failing. I’ve also noticed all my very short-term plays (in and out within 1 1/2 day) for the most part 90% work earning an average of around 5-10% per trade because the stock market is currently going up and down so much that by the 4-7th day in my option practice trade my options intrinsic value is becoming less and less even if the stock is going my way. Something I think is what makes Dick’s Sporting Goods a “hot pick” that is bound to go up is because its brand name is advertised all over ESPN’s basketball and football games. It’s subconsciously telling little boys and girls all over the world to buy from Dick’s. I have a Dicks Sporting Goods in my hometown of Virginia Beach and I have to admit its really simple nice store with a very good selection priced for the average consumer.
Conclusions: Well my DEC PUT is good until December 21st so I have a little less than 30 days for Apple Inc. stock basically to fall to around $150 to become profitable and sell out. I am 100% against depositing money into my account. I just “feel” like I am going to lose it! And any trader’s book says if you feel like you are not 100% confident about your trade you probably should not be trading and likely to lose. I know I have better trading skills then what I have been actually putting out. I need to put more research into trading a stock – before I trade a stock. Currently trades I consider won’t work to practice on ARE WORKING so I know it isn’t 100% my error either. The market is definitely a bit nutty with all this bad credit mortgage news and thriving tech companies.
Below is a 55 minute chart of DKS to show movement:
(Click on to enlarge)
November 24, 2007 | Categories: 2007 option picks, 2007 resolutions, 2007 stock picks, dicks sporting goods, DKS stock, dks stock alert, dks stock chart, earnings report, sporting goods retail store, trading stock options | Tags: aapl, Apple, C, Call and Put Options, dicks sporting goods, DKS, DKS stock report, M, shld, Sporting Goods Retail Stock | Leave a comment