Apple Inc. (AAPL) @ $155 falls -10% after hours to $137 on earnings, my reasoning on AAPL
Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.
This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:
“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”
“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer
One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.
Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)
Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).
I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).
But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…
Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings
Energy drinks, Smoothies, Pickles, and Apples + makin it.
I’ve noticed from my statistics that the majority of people that find my blog come to read about old information about stocks I’ve blogged about almost a year ago. These posts continually get clicked on and the readers don’t click on anything else or explore, this is a problem. For one thing if you are going to read some of my posts then at least see what else I have to offer! I find it funny because blog readers are commeting on old posts about stock picks and trades, but they don’t actually search for new posts on the same subject!
For example it was great to trade WTVI.PK last January 2007, but believe me you would not want to touch the stock now. I think this goes for almost every penny stocks I’ve encounted. You basically want to buy when people are buying then selling before people start selling if this makes any sense to a real trader. We aren’t trying to hurt anyone, but these are penny stocks. They will eventually fall. Hence, check out SPKL.OB, spicy pickle franchising, it did fall. I lost some money, but I don’t feel the run is over yet. For one thing it is a real operating franchise even though it probably won’t make a profit for a while. It’s a pretty awesome hip trendy fresh-healthy food place and that is what is going for it. Another stock which I can’t even sell out of is CCNG.OB, sports collectables inc. I can’t even sell at $.0001!!! I’ve had a GTC order in for almost 2 months unable because no one will buy my 11 million shares. I’d actually like to hold on to the stock because the sports company is working and doing small stuff like creating kiosks in malls to sell their products to sports fanatics. They are finally starting to think like business professionals. If you want to sell and create a customer base you need to get your product out there.
So I’m going to do some more research on Hansen, Jamba Juice, Jones Soda, Spicy Pickle, and Apple Inc since it is searched so much. I guess investors are really into buying food stocks. As for Apple (AAPL) it just has buzz now and beating many computer makers in the race to take its share in selling personal computers and personal devices.
It has been hard posting about “makin it” because clearly I haven’t yet. Yes, I have increased my wealth and networth so to say, but I haven’t “made it” so I can retire young. I have 2 more years before I’m done with the military. I know I can do it. I just need to strap on a harder thinking helmet and start bowling the right balls to score some perfect strikes.
cheers, FN
Paul Meyer 