So AAPL @ $445 was either going to move higher at $457 where I expected it to bounce back up with support but it fell more instead. If you look at the Weekly / Daily chart it’s 100% in a downtrend and the recent continued fall has only supported more of a fall which I think will be even harder possibly going under $400. Things that could change this? Some really new products. Better growth and lower margins in April earnings. Sometimes no matter what a stock just falls because the big traders are making lots of money on the move so until they want it to change direction it will continue its trend. So remember “The trend is your friend”. All the charts are beginning to cross-over with big red candles but from experience this is a choppy time. One day it looks like a fat put option the next day it looks like just a pull-back and continuing uptrend (see NSC). Seems like tech will continue up (besides AAPL which is like the ugly ducking at the moment) however housing/materials/energy seem* to be changing direction which could be great shorting trades but I’m just going to keep my eye on them at the moment and if and when it feels right I’ll dive in head first.
I should of looked at the big picture, but even that would of not stopped me trading on a solid streak. Well I’m down around 50% for Sept-Oct. 12′ so far. I should of knew better. Everything I was taught was to warn me about warnings season during this time. Even with all the positive growth and cash flow I still took a hit on my GOOG calls which were way in-the-money. I had 2 changes to cash out making some money and I sat on the piano waiting. I’m really pissed at Apple Inc. right now but they really don’t care. Apple has been dragging down tech in every way imaginable – which is plenty of a reason not to be buying CALLS in any tech. No matter the good news if Apple is having bad news everything will be brought to its knees. This makes me really think the big picture again – Apple can’t stay big and profitable forever unless is cross’s over into more products… more like Google. I’m still waiting for Facebook to really profit from its 1 billion users. Well, it’s not the end of the world.
I’m going to a stock options seminar in two weeks and bring my mom. I’m leaving the credit card home because I know I don’t need any specialized stock system to make good trades you just need discipline. I figured I go to learn some new strategies and just get me pumped to do better. I know I can. It is just a matter of focusing on what I do best and stay away from what I do worst. I’m still figuring that out, but what I do know is that I trade better intraday in the last 3 hours of trading 1pm – 4pm than any other time and doing it consistently even if its smaller gains. I’m becoming an old fart and I really don’t want a day job.
However, with GOOG I find an exception because it hasn’t moved back up as quickly like AAPL and PCLN. GOOG seems like it is a turtle slowly going down a hill whereas AAPL and PCLN are like college frat kids jumping off into deep blue lagoon abysses.
After Wednesday I initially thought GOOG out of the three would have been the best practice trade to follow in and trade on real money, but after two seeing all three continue to fall I’d say it’s safe that all three are in for a short-term stock price correction.
Now on Friday even the MSFT did well in earnings I don’t think it’s going to affect my stocks. All three stocks will likely fall another 10 points into next monday.
Currently here are the 3 practice put options I have in play:
(bought on close of the 16th – the better trade would have been the close on the 18th)
AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 / currently at $16.55
GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 / currently at $19.50 (still likely the weakest and best put play)
PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 / currently at $12.17
And I’m going to add an QQQ NASDAQ index put option due to how heavily these 3 stocks can weight on the QQQ index because it is ALSO at it’s peak high which has been squatting at the price of $65-67.
Buy QQQ 66 MAY PUT @ $1.42 (close of 4/19/12). QQQ’s are slow but likely the least amount risk out of these 3 larger options as seen just by the movement of the options except for Google because it hasn’t moved much only slowly falling. However, if GOOG continues to drift downwards it could have a sudden couple of big falls.
It’s too bad Yahoo! Fantasy Finance doesn’t let you short or trade options on stocks in your portfolio. I’m currently up 14%. Nothing to brag about compared to leaders supposedly with up to 150% gains in the past 30 days. I don’t know how they are doing it but I can only assume they are trading penny stocks or stocks only under $2.
See shot:
Some BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on which I think at the moment are definite risk/reward worthy are put option trades on AAPL, GOOG, and PCLN. They have been trending down for the week 5-20% off their highs. I’ve been waiting and waiting for some big institutional sellers/investors to start taking some profits and selling. I believe this is finally happening as stock analysts re-think Apple. I think it’s run up with Google and Priceline are currently in a stock value correction. The company’s have moved up so quickly a stock correction was bound to happen. Now I’d trade my life on a definite ongoing correction probably another 10%. However, from experience, this could also be a quick buying/selling opportunity. Whenever a high talked about stock like Apple falls 20 points as it did today then next morning it can have a volatile swing upwards confusing any type of trader. So a correct entry point is crucial and very short-term trading profits are important – meaning if I was going to trade puts on any of these companies once I’m up 50-100% in a day on a contract it would be smartest to get out and just get in/out when the timing looks right on technical charts and watch how investors are reacting/how news is changing.
Even with the stocks hit hard today I can bet they will actually be positive tomorrow.
However I feel a put trade over 1 month will have definite positive results. Since I have no money in my account. I will trade as if I only have $2000 for each option. (A total of a $6000 account).
Here are my 3 BIG OPTION PRACTICE PLAYS on AAPL, GOOG, PCLN.
Bought end of close 4/16/12
AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 (This is the closest to in-the-money I can buy – although way out of the money with only having $2k towards trade however this option is moving fast with big swings).
GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 (Surprisingly, GOOG is higher and I can buy in-the-money puts for $2k)
PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 (Closer to AAPL’s option pricing – out-of-the money with $2k trade)
Very short-term such as the next 1-2 days I expect the stocks to pop up, however if I’m right on trending and more importantly – FEAR of losing money for many holders – the stocks should continue a down trend and the more that sell the sharper the decline until a big guy steps in and stops it buying back changing direction – a new market correction. So check back in a week for a post update on this practice trade.
Market hit 13,000. Mr. Market’s emotions seem generally mixed to highly optimistic even though we are historically in the “earnings warnings zone”. Any CALL option trade I would of made long in January would of been at least 10-20% in profitability. The January Barometer has kept Mr. Market’s enthusiasm as it is referenced in articles regularly.
AAPL @ $520 – Fall near? Problems with copyrights over iPad in China. How much will it cost Apple on its next earnings? Is it too big to fail? The higher it moves the more volatile it will fall with bad news.
GOOG @ $605 – I think GOOG will hit $700 this year. The iPhone’s are still a hit but the TV marketing campaigns for the DROID and newer smart phones duplicate the iPhone and offer more options than the iPhone plus Droid is dominant in the mobile market.
NFLX @ $120 – Netflix entered the United Kingdom market. I think it’s going to bring a few more billion to their cashflow due to that their are no competitors currently in the UK besides LoveFilm owned by Amazon but doesn’t have the large library like NFLX.
NFLX moved with its Jan. 12′ earnings up 20%. I think it hasn’t moved for almost 2 weeks because it’s just taking a breather. If it grows and expands its business model of streaming/dvd’s into Europe it could be a hot stock again like Apple.
QQQ @ $64 – The QQQ’s have followed all 3 of these big boy Nasdaq stocks. At $64 it’s high as an index stock. This index use to not even move past $44 only until just a few years ago. This is the high, however, if the market continues to go up especially with
AAPL and GOOG move another 50pts with the general market following the QQQ could see new all time highs, however I’m pessimistic and think the QQQ’s will be sold off some lower than $60 within 1-2 months.
On a personal note I’ve been having dreams about prospering and success with bee’s, fish, and snakes. Also my film projects have been slow to come about. I hope to soon start getting my market commentary up in animated form through The Secret Corporation project. Scotland life has improved, some. I still consider the stock market my first home and one day full-time income and everything else I do just a hobby for fun and to share freely with others. However, until I’m able to have complete discipline and earn more than I lose I’ll have to settle for delivering pizzas and freelance work.
SWN @ $36 is up 10% since earnings and moving with the Dow and strong trends of gas prices going up. It has a huge reserve keeping the company profitable. The Dow continues to rise even though fairs of inflation continue to rise with the U.S. dollar weakening. GOOG and AAPL I feel are also getting a boost. I continually see more ipads being used in the NYC subway. For around every 20 riders I see someone holding an ipad and 15 others wearing ipods and around 10 of those holding iphones. Apple Inc. is definitely still in growth saturating the market and has a mighty fan base. Current I’ve been following Gold also at 1391 ounce. I joined My Gold Rush USA, a gold home based business opportunity, where you can get 10% of gold American Eagle Coins. That is kind of a big deal when you think of a discount of 10% on $1445 an ounce for American Eagle coins that is $144.50 in gold discount. For more information on getting these coins at a discount check out My Gold Rush USA.
First updates on my practice trades for AAPL, GOOG, and SBUX.
AAPL is doing what I expect today it hit a high of $231 and ended at $226.
GOOG’s big buying support wick from yesterday showed continued strength into it’s second day making the stock hit around $572. So it definitely wasn’t a false signal and GOOG will likely move up into a 3rd straight day even though from my experience most Fridays stocks kind of sag.
BIDU’s big selling wick on the 233 chart showed up again today closer near the top and BIDU when from $608 to $584 at one point a 20 point move down. Short term selling is happening.
SBUX charts show downward movement and went down again as predicted to around $24 which would have been a realistic 10-25% profit on a put option play.
Now the fun stuff, shopping. So good news today I finally got PAID! My Gi Bill money benefits are coming in and now I can pay all my debtors. Yeah! On my way to my Wachovia (WA) bank (only a few in NYC) I passed a hidden huge Old Navy (GPS) store in a building. Everything in NYC is just kind of fit into a building hidden away.
Since I couldn’t do laundry for almost 2 weeks I had no socks and was dying for a pair. I go in JUST TO GET SOCKS and then behold “the clearance” section! Well I bought some summer sports collared t-shirts (made for tennis/soccer/golf) but all look professional so I can stay cool and nerdy. Then I got two pairs of shorts and a hat. Cha-ching $149 dollars later I leave the store thanks to Visa (V).
Old Navy is owned by the Gap Inc (GPS @ $24). This store runs like a McDonalds (MCD) version of retail. Quite amazing, clean, friendly, and affordable. This is definitely a great company I really don’t hear about in the news although they own many retail establishments with over 3000 retail stores. The stock just recently double up 100% after the 52 week low of the general market. It has a low P/E of 12. It also has a PEG of 1.24 so this would be in the definition of a Warren Buffett stock to own I’d think. I’d say the store is definitely still growing too. The store concept and beginnings I believe are less than 10 years old but have gained quite the popularity among the 15-30 age group that spend money. When in the store it was packed with twenty-something trendy females crazy about the clothes. Sadly, some young child in Indonesia (as stated on clothes tags) are probably being forced and badly abused in the Gap Inc. underpaid working camps where long hours and abusement run rapid. It’s a sick sad world, but I can’t let these clothes go unloved and to waste right?
SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35. What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall. It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices. It bothers me a bit. I admit it, I want to trade so bad. I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard. I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within. I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.
There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves. Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on. Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.
I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near! You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader! Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!
Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split. What a joke. NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY! This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies. Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words. ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split. reverse stock splits are the worse.
it seems like when ever the government bails out another company in this case being Citigroup (c) with a “rescue plan” or rumor of one the stock market surged up in the last 30 minutes of trading of the “good” news or is it? look at the automakers…. is it fair that the government only bails out selective companies? i don’t care what the government does i really don’t have much control over it’s decision but i do have control over my stock option trades. i do think if a company made really bad financial decisions then they should go down. let the strongest and smartest survive. so if the asian auto market takes over the usa because they have better management and cutting costs then say good bye to our automakers that created the industry because they don’t know how to “change” with the industry. we need a company that is going to make a big change for the environment and put their business on the line. hydrogen cars have already been made, why not in full production? just stop making normal cars and make better clean energy cars and price them same and i bet people would start buying them like hotcakes because same cost and less gas needed. the problem, oil. politicians still make mega kickbacks on oil so until we don’t bail out oil we are screwed for new innovations in the auto market.
i thought the market was finally going to move up 2 weeks ago, but it continued down some more.
SWN hit $22! bounced back up to $26 and i plan for it to hit $28-30 this would be a definite call option trade if for real. GOOG at $261. wow. hard times i guess on these once big high flying stocks…
I had a hunch today might jump up some after around 2 days of losses, but on the charts everything was still moving down. The only precise clear signal I saw for a real call option trade was on FSLR with it’s big red candle dipping below the BB’s and on smaller charts showing technicals moving up in the morning.
Today stocks really moved with force. I noticed on the charts and highs/lows how much of a swing there was showing major candle wick buying support/confidence. I have to admit the good thing about practice trading and figuring out which side of the trade you should be on is that you can be wrong and not lose money! Currently looking at AAPL charts on the 233 min. there is a clear picture of what happened today and likely on every chart I look at too. For the past week and half stocks have been falling and today from what I see will create a few up days or call option practice trades. Currently many of PUT trades were profitable even though they closed higher because they fell lower.
For a moment I considered staying in the Puts for tomorrow, but the right thing would be do to close them since I know stocks are about to move higher and change sides. The only ones within yesterdays practice trades that would have worked would have been ones hitting low low’s. (or +$1-2 on option)
Now, I still have my “ifs” because also on all the 55 min charts it shows each white candle getting smaller and smaller not hitting top BB’s (except AAPL). So this could also bring me to the conclusion that todays boost could be short-lived and fall again hard tomorrow. I’m going to play dcalls because the charts say a second day of upward movement, but we are still in all downtrends currently. So since I’m not playing long-term Puts I will trade what I see on a weekly basis.
See below with completed practice trades 11/12/08 and new 11/13/08 following:
SOLD
BOUGHT
I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.
The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?
My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN
I think Google (GOOG) earnings say a lot about our current economic “crisis” which isn’t much a crisis at all but politicians trying to force Americans into thinking paranoid about their well being to get more control behind the government. That stated Google did fine this quarter. It is up +10% after earning of a profitable quarter. The CEO is smart. They are going to conserve more and take away a lot of the goodies the dish out to employees to save money during the slow cycle we are currently in. America goes through up’s and down’s. Some longer then others. I’m clearly not worried. I’m sure our government will print more money lower interest rates and slowly the cycle will get better and Americans will “regain the confidence level in buying” and maybe just maybe (and when) Obama becomes President if his goal is #1 energy he will spend spend spend on light rail systems, creating denser more populated cities, and have more energy efficent cars like hydrogren and bring back nuclear power plants to power America more efficiently. GOOG has proved internet stocks (tech in general) is still alive and kicking. America is still alive. Yes, home prices are down inflation WILL keep creeping up but you might as well get use to it, I have. Paranoia creates paranoia and negativity IS addicting. So although no one is optimistic I will keep my stance on being very optimistic.
Now I do admit the DJIA and NAS are in downtrend cycles and even with a big +976pt day (supposedly the best day every for wall street) the market will continue to fall after the short brief bump up. It’s okay. Our markets have gained a lot so we have a lot of room to lose then make back up. People keep asking me with a downtrending market what should I buy? I say nothing. I say wait until the President is elected. Then consider buying energy if Obama wins and technology if McCain wins. I actually tell everyone EVERYONE to buy real estate right now instead of stocks.
currently the only chart that stands out from many perfectly downtrends technical charts is ICE with a plain view “W” support bullish reversal on dailly and 233 minute charts. check it out for yourself. since it’s by itself I don’t think i would trade it as a real trade just because everything is moving down so if the market keeps moving down by force it will too.
put and call option practice trades on V,AAPL,ATVI,FSLR,GOOG,HANS,RIMM,SBUX,EOG,SWN,RIG,NYX,MA,DKS,SHLD,ICE
I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.
Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.
the market seemed to get more optimistic today. warren buffet’s edgy deal profiting from Goldman Sachs (GS) couldn’t hurt. without even looking at my charts i know that congestion would be shown with stocks starting to break out. after the market today Research in Motion (RIMM) dove down on earnings. it just shows how unpredictable stocks are releasing earnings. stocks across the board are down a lot and i’m curious if investors fear more after RIMM’s -20% drop. i do know also the Republican party threw out the bailout plan Democratics were happy with. i’m sure this creates some room for panic and turbulance in the markets as well. i will likely be practicing put options tomorrow unless the bailout plan is passed through law and okayed by everyone. should Fed bernaneke really be taken serious? if he just gave “why” an answer with “facts” rather then just vague statements i think everyone would take the Fed more seriously.
currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.
see put option practice plays below:
put option practice trades
Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).
So on my short call plays energy stocks SWN, RIG, and FSLR would have continued to increase in option price, but tech RIMM and AAPL continue to fall with charts. RIMM charts actually looked like it was going to spike higher, but I’m pretty sure right now AAPL is influencing on its stock. I think RIMM will take off the quickest once its out of AAPL’s shadow, yeah you heard that right. They follow each other so I wouldn’t be surprised once it wins investors over again to move much quicker past its 52 week highs with a PEG of .82
GOOG yesterday created a fat big while engulfing candle going from $400 to the $430s a big swing showing its strong and no negative news is going to shut down its optimistic growth idea thinking. it’s advertising will keep being a money machine. I wouldn’t be surprised to see GOOG swing back up past the $450’s into the $500’s again this fall as the tide increases.
We are definitely at a low low tide. So the best stocks should start to show some sunshine soon..
Well as anyone can see the stock market is sliding off the charts. All my charts show a continual fall unless or should I say “when” the market decides to change direction. Currently all tech and energy stocks are creating huge whammy engulfing bearish candles continually. Instead of like 3 bearish soliders its like 20-30 bearish soldiers which really makes me believe change is due sooner or later. I’m really curious what is happening with First Solar – FSLR. Man this stock has been hit hard with Google – GOOG. Both stocks have fallen around -$80 points. Talk about a killing if you were playing Put Options on both of these stocks from the start. You are talking about a small fortune.
Apple recently will have news of new products and price decreases analyst say/think. I can already assume the price will drop if they do lower prices because that lowers margines and growth in big money long-term. It isn’t like bran new products with big margins that grows the capital. Now they are lowering prices which will reflect AAPL stock price lowering. If the low this year was around $112 I believe and its currently around $159. Then if this news is all true of lowering prices even if the iPhone is a hit then buying Puts maybe the smartest action.
My current options in SWN OCT calls are dead and I’ll leave it at that. My account is back to zero. When will I ever have the discipline and be prepared to actually sell out and buy in the new direction I don’t know. Maybe when I have the time to just watch and actually take the action. Seeing these huge slides, no money to trade, and no real time just sucks. These swings are huge and option traders “should” be making money, but then again if you are wrong and you won’t admit it then you probably won’t have enough money left to trade.
Besides all that crap because it is just crap in my life not working out. I think I’m going to use all my GI Bill money for the next 3 years once I’m out to go to school full-time and since now you get BAH too I can actually stash money away in account for another real estate deal while going to school. I’m pretty psyched. Schools like www.fullsail.com and www.nyfa.com are available and fully paid for. I think it would be fun to attend. I’m also considering The Texas Culinary Academy in Austin. I want to hit a big city where I might be able to make a living somehow until my trading starts earning instead of losing. I need to stay positive damnit. I admit its hard, very hard when I just keep fucking losing, yeah. I’m pissed today.
It seems since I got back from patrol in march 08′ that I’ve been the total slacker journaling in my market diary, practice trades, and just keeping up with my favorite stocks. I basically traded blind in April-May and got what I deserved losing my account. The market has been so wild. Like today FSLR down almost 40 pts in a month and specifically down -$15 today. GOOG has been moving up finally and it’s PEG of 1.00 deserves the stock to do so. A $600-700 price target looks really realistic with all the billions, new technologyies, and still growth. Then there is oil and energy stocks. It’s a no brainer oil stocks were going to move higher and pull back. Lastly theres big growth stocks like MA and V. I have to admit I was not trading V at the right time at $82 twice. When I saw is laying dead at $77 that was the right pull back price now currently hit $87 this move would have been plenty to earn 100% on, but I guess you keep learning and eating dirt along the way…
Still waiting to close. VA appraisers most be stereotyped to take forever to finish so now I have to wait the full amount which is June 6th supposedly to get my keys. My refinancing if everything goes smooth will be June 9th. My home was appraised at $117k in Virginia. I’m still happy with that with the markets fluctuating in housing industry. That’s still almost a 50% gain over 3 years on the purchase price. My home in Hawaii was appraised higher then the selling price so the appraiser knew it was worth well more then what I paid. Usually a home is only appraised at the loan value not more over while mine was appraised $10k over the purchase price meaning the true market value is around $60-80k in the money full of equity. This is pleasing in the chance that in a few years I could earn over $100k would be awesome if I did decide to sell. Even then I’m going to turn this into my dream home (or should I say apartment) so I might really end of loving it.
I love Visa (V) and I bought 1 contract today at $4. This IPO has a higher PE + double the capitilization of Mastercard (MA) so it should surpass MA in price currently at $298! With Visa @ $86 seems very undervalued and at a bargain price now publicly offered in my opinion especially with a bigger better branded name on more credit cards.
I bought another SWN SEP 40 Call @ $6.10 (same price) so now I have two contracts with the price currently hovering around $7.50 a contract. My GTC is at $8.10 even though I want to raise it I’d rather put it in a faster moving stock like Visa.
I’ve got this subconcious feeling looking at some over inflated stock price charts that some big stocks are ready to sell-off by investors taking a breather and dealing with other factors such as their homes falling in price such as First Solar, Bidu, and Google. Yeah, I know major growth stocks with good stories, but my daily and weekly charts seem to indicate engulfing bearish candles and if within reason (week) or so they don’t move up much higher then they should follow the current down trend further down. I would short them, but I’ve been burned way too many times losing money. So until I see a big break in trend or big move I will not listen to my gutt and instead not trade the stocks at all to be safe then sorry.
I’m extremely confident that AAPL, SWN, and V will continue a strong uptrend with of course dips and pull backs in the markets, but will go UP without reason for big reasons that are making the stocks $$$.
My order on V MAY 85 Calls:
5/6/2008 10:45:47 AM (ET):
Symbol: .VEQ
Description: V MAY 85 Call
Stock: V at 86.93
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $4.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $414.95
I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.
check out INP. I’ve seen this stock go from $48 to now $112. Like FXI I think it still has much room to grow with small downs and big moves up with India’s major growth. I believe TTM will start to follow india stocks with its new plan for $2500 car.
check out AAPL. will it get support at current price levels ($172)? major trend will be breached soon if Mac Expo 08′ and earning on january 18th do not give investors reasons to keep charging the stock up. If you look at any other tech stock right now BIDU, GOOG, RIMM charts show in favor of major downtrend to form if negative opinions continue on the economy.
btw – only 70 pages left of Alan Greenspans book! great book and very insightful.
So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).
So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.
My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]
BUYING CALLS on: Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase. GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.
BUYING PUTS on: Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down. Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens. Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it. Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade. Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher! Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either. Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some. Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices. Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while. China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.
Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.
So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.
A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.
As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.
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