AAPL @ $169 as you can see everything shown at the Apple Mac expo 2008 wasn’t much of a surprise. As I noted earlier analyst were being very negative on this expo which made me think Apple was likely and predictably going to fall. Down -11pts is nothing what I expected from a company that sold a spectacular 4 million iPhones in 6 months, gains 8% of computer market, and comes out with a new sleek innovative products, nonetheless this is why investors are saying it is a recessing bear market.
My AAPL JAN 220 Calls are worth $.01 so even the $.04 play didn’t work out, wow.
This is why any novice trader tells you to practice trade before doing real trades. I actually do many practice trades. I don’t know what I’m missing from this big equation. I keep losing. I make a good profit, then I lose twice to three times as much as I win. Why? I really think I justify why I get into trades, but then why with conviction I keep losing more then gaining? I’m starting to come to the moron conclusion that options are very risky. If I would of bought Apple stock at $200 I still would have lost as much as I have even though my loss is limited at $4000 going into the option trade.
I wish, wish, I had someone to really guide me and teach me, discipline me as a student. I need regulation in my trading to get better. I feel I am just gambling my money away because I haven’t gotten anywhere. Every year I start with between $1000-10000 and I end up losing it all. If I would just buy an index fund or large cap stock I probably wouldn’t have losses near as bad but I wouldn’t have any incredible gains to boost my networth either. I’m not greedy I just want to reach my goals. My goals are hard so I expect cumbersome account to build to what I want.
Last year I said theres always next years mac expo. Here I am still empty handed. shit.
Okay so again I really fucked myself over. I bought my AAPL Jan 220 Calls entirely too early (@ $190 and apple currently @ $178). I suppose I was more “eager” to get in on a low price on apple and again buy options “cheap” then wait for better timing. I’m starting to understand that technicals mean little if you are eager to buy a stock and mean more when you are patient and the timing is right.
For instance my options I paid $.90 for now are worth a mill $.04 you are talking a mega percentage loss. Again, if I was patient and waited to buy my options the day before the Apple mac expo and picked them up at $.04 I could of bought probably 1000 more contracts for the price of 40 contracts (or roughly a $4000 trade) and my profits/loss would of turned out completely different.
I’m already factoring in I will lose my entire $4000. If something wild happens for some reason and the price goes to $200 by earnings I might get lucky and make just it back.
But if I was patient and waited and bought 1000 contracts at $.04 ($4000) realistically with ANY positive news at the expo and realistic very positive earnings I could of easily walked away in 3 days with a realistic 500-1000% profit or $20-50k profit if the stock moves to $200 or even $190. So again lesson learned. I wonder which year will my magic formulas start working or should I say I actually trade more smart, more patiently.
I can do this. I KNOW I can. I’m not smarter then anyone else or have an more insightful knowledge then anyone else, but I feel deep down inside convinced I can master this trading and make a living out of it if I can just discipline and keep patient all the time before making a decision to execute a trade.
I can always save up another $4000 g’s to trade next years Apple Mac Expo, but how long will Apple’s winning streak and big boy competition style go on for? I definitely AGREE that with the information age the digital industry is totally taking over entertainment and the home meaning digital movies, TV’s, and computers getting more robotic and innovative.
Recently I finished Alan Greenspans book and it ended basically saying that the baby boomers will bust the market just like so many other books like Rich Dad Poor Dad’s Prophecy and Boomernomics which I’m reading right now. Although the book was published it is very accurate on baby boomers and the information age become ultra successful. The only thing is is 100% wrong about is the housing market falling and prices never increasing. What baloney. It shows a major trend line from 1900’s to 1998 with a steady increase and then suddenly in 1999 to 2050 it falls straight down 30%? That makes no sense. You know the “trend is my friend” what were these economists thinking? The trend will just break and never move up again? One economists in the book they ruled out by himself believed there would be continual home price increases in another future bubble (wah-lah currently). I still think real estate is a good long-term investment. Home prices do go up even with big downs they have proved to build equity and create financial freedom for landlords and retirement equity money to sell off. I currently have $60,000 equity in my home it may come down some for a few years but I plan for my home to be worth 2-3x it is currently creating a nice seperate nest egg for me to sell later on and in the meanwhile have the mortgage being paid by rent.
well good luck and good trading for todays Apple Mac expo 2008.