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my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year

hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.

for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):

i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.

for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.

see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:
12-12-08-fn1


AAPL OCT 170 CALLS sold out up +25%, GOOG earnings

Okay so to finish from a few days ago I bought AAPL calls going up and I was sold out the falling morning for $2.60 up 25%. I wanted to trade into GOOG earnings, but with a small amount so I only traded $1000. Again I was probably being too greedy. I could only buy 1 contract and I did at $10 for GOOG NOV 690 CALLS, but I should of put my GTC order at $11.50 or $12 at the most. Early morning trading the next day the option only went up to $12.60 so if I only put it up a dollar or more I would of been sold out with a 10% profit. I put my GTC order at $15 because I thought GOOG which his $658 would of rose $5 since I was closer to in the money, but I was wrong. I also slept it! I put my alarm for 3:30 AM to get up right when the market opened so I could sell out, but I slepted in an hour and that cost me $300. I sold out at $7 with a $300 loss. I’m actually happy I loss only $300 because if I would of stayed in I’d lost a bit more. This is what is confusing: I bought my option when GOOG was at $639, but my option fell $3 dollars even when in the next morning it was up $9. You’d think my option would of went up with the stock instead of fell. How is this possible? I figured it had to do something with expiration Friday for options. My call option fell $3 even thought GOOG’s stock went up and held at $9 so like $648. I don’t know why my option fell so much but it did. I think for now on I’m not going to buy calls near expiration Friday. They must adjust the price or something. Anyway GOOG earnings should help the stock rise. The Dow drop of -$366 pts is termporary and I definitely expect Monday or Tuesday next week to have a pop and push the market higher after this big pull back.

Stocks I’ve been keeping a close eye on are FXI, GOOG, AAPL, NUE, SHLD, RIG
FXI is due for a correction with the asian markets. Just recently it has fell 18 pts within a week. If it breaks its major trend I might buy a crap load of Puts on it. AAPL’s earnings are OCT 24th and I might play Puts on it because historically Apple during earnings falls every time.
With NUE steel is starting a strong uptrend helped by X. SHLD is just very volatile and I’m looking for entry points since it is going sideways now. Lastly RIG had a peg of .41 does anyone know this? This stock has continually gone up its trend and if does at $112 it will start bouncing back up again to a higher price.