why is apple’s stock falling?

AAPL, GOOG, & PCLN continue fall from peak after subtle expected pop.

So in my two earlier posts I first analyzed and came to a long waited gut conclusion with these weekly faster and bigger moves that the top peaks of a few fat stocks looked like they were ready to sell off. Particularly Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Priceline (PCLN). I predicted a pop after the quick fall on Monday for all three stocks to having a buying opportunity especially on AAPL Tuesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday the stocks popped up. Then I planned on Thursday into Friday, if I was correct about the possible new downtrend starting to begin, to show after the initial quick trade on Tuesday. Today, all three stocks got hammered except GOOG.

However, with GOOG I find an exception because it hasn’t moved back up as quickly like AAPL and PCLN. GOOG seems like it is a turtle slowly going down a hill whereas AAPL and PCLN are like college frat kids jumping off into deep blue lagoon abysses. 

After Wednesday I initially thought GOOG out of the three would have been the best practice trade to follow in and trade on real money, but after two seeing all three continue to fall I’d say it’s safe that all three are in for a short-term stock price correction.

Now on Friday even the MSFT did well in earnings I don’t think it’s going to affect my stocks. All three stocks will likely fall another 10 points into next monday.

Currently here are the 3 practice put options I have in play:
(bought on close of the 16th – the better trade would have been the close on the 18th)

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 / currently at $16.55

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 / currently at $19.50 (still likely the weakest and best put play)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 / currently at $12.17

And I’m going to add an QQQ NASDAQ index put option due to how heavily these 3 stocks can weight on the QQQ index because it is ALSO at it’s peak high which has been squatting at the price of $65-67.

Buy QQQ 66 MAY PUT @ $1.42 (close of 4/19/12). QQQ’s are slow but likely the least amount risk out of these 3 larger options as seen just by the movement of the options except for Google because it hasn’t moved much only slowly falling. However, if GOOG continues to drift downwards it could have a sudden couple of big falls.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) @ $155 falls -10% after hours to $137 on earnings, my reasoning on AAPL

Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.

This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:

“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”

“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer

One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.

Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)

Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).

I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).

But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…

Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings

Apple’s stock falling like Russia’s economy, double whammy!

Well as we all know Apple’s stock (AAPL) currently at $161 is likely to move further south in prices. Similar to Russia’s falling economy from communist old thinking practice and current socialism starving the economy from a bit of capitalism so is to say Apple Inc’s stock price. I’m a bit worried about Apple’s future too. Now AAPL has some great products, great hardcore customers, and lots of cash, but the truth is our economy is changing and there is plenty to prove it with many companies dealing with subscribers such as Sprint (S @ $8) and AT&T (T @ $38). Both companies and credit card companies are having more and more defaults in payments. This means small consumers that buy electronics and plans are having more trouble paying their bills creating less extra money for higher priced ticket items such as iPhones, Laptop Airs, and more expensive data plans. The Fed says slower growth, but the market makers will take that as “less sales, oncomming recession”. It is a double whammy blow to higher PE stocks such as AAPL, RIMM, GRMN, GOOG, BIDU, and solar stocks such as HOKU and FSLR. No wonder why these stocks have been dropping like Einsteins apples off trees with no reason to fight science floating in free air back up. Google (GOOG @ $600) says a lot about the market. It is a high growth stock with a low Peg of 1.20. By this time at the price of $600 it should consistantly be moving higher and hitting support levels which it isn’t. This also brings me to the point that if PE is falling then so will big stock prices as in the 2000’s.

We might just be receiving slow growth and the markets get a little choppy which should be understandable, but all off my technicals show to a downward spiral and I’m curious how low will stocks dip before real buying happens.

I loss my initial investment of $2000 + my $2000 in profits I made in the past month on the AAPL JAN CALL 220 options this month. I’m telling myself not to trade. Now that I’m at $0 in both of my brokerage accounts + my mobile home park was a total bomb with my lying property manager I’m in a bit of stress and panic. I should not trade when in panic. Yes. So once I can put it behind me so I don’t “revenge” trade trying to make back money that I lost. I’m not a shitty trader as much as I lose I do it making really stupid trades, not necessarily bad trades. My trades wouldn’t be bad as long as I sold out once I knew they were bad which I rarely do. I 100% of the time was them go to worth $0 and if I can just stop that thinking and get some damn discipline then maybe my life of trading can finally turn around.

I setup my automatic payment on my car to $1200 so I couldn’t get out of paying off my car debt off early. This way it will be paid off in around a year or less. My big fat student loan for my real estate purchase has hurt me the worst at 12% interest now I can’t pay it off as planned. It is being paid monthly and preventing me to pay off my home mortgage sooner. I’m in big doo doo as little kids call it. I stink of financial problems. If I am truly a financial ninja I should be able to get me out of them this year. I need to start saving before I get out of the military to have capital to do something with even if its moving to a third world country to retire on. I know I can do it just need the will power to do it.