TRMP

High Probability Trading by author Marcel Link + More

Just recently I started a new stock traders book High Probability Trading by author Marcel Link. So far I’ve gotten through the Preface. It isn’t very dry and it seems to push all the lessons and rules I have learned from many great traders. Marcel Link stresses disciplined qualities and I’m sure it will be a great read. I think reading about what you are most interested in being a success in is a step to becoming it, but as I’ve already reading actually trading with real money is the true test. I just recently finished the book How to Become a Stock Market Genius. It gave some interesting ideas I haven’t heard of before and I plan to practice them on paper to see how they work out. A book my friend is reading called How to Trade like Jesse Livermore is one of the best books I’ve just glanced at since I started reading it when he put it down. Many of the stock market rules in the book are the same I’ve been taught. I can’t wait to read it once he is finished so I can borrow it.

Recently the stock market, although choppy, has been feeling overall bullish since the economic reports and fed chairman Bernanke have been sending upbeat views. Employment is strong, oil is rising and stocks are rising with it, GDP is rising which is good because it could raise rates, but inflation remains flat and companies growth is still increasing which bulls want to hear.

NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI @ 52.41) has been going up a steady slow incline for the past week up around 4 pts since last Friday. If it hits $60 then my options trade for NTRI JUN 50 Calls will be up 100% and my GTC order should sell out. As for my other trades well they aren’t looking so good. For one thing, Boeing (BA @ 89) has just been hanging out at just $89 for too long. I own APR 95 Calls and my option is starting to decrease with the expiration date catching up. NYSE Group (NYX @ 93) has had a strong gain up to $97 and came back down to catch its breath. I expect it to go much higher and sell me out once it goes over $100 for my SEP 115 Calls. Another stock that has been flapping on the ground like a dieing fish is Trump Casinos (TRMP @18). It moved to $19 and has fallen down since after talking of a full sale of Trump Casinos to a larger casino. I’m wondering if a deal does go through how much of a premium would TRMP get bought out for? I’m wishing over $20 would sell me out of my JUL 25 Call position.

Long-term stocks that I own for speculative possible big gain chances are CCNG.OB and WTVI.PK both now trading below a penny, which sucks in my opinion. They have been both collecting and moving forward, but for some reason the stock price has been moving in the oppositive direction I think mostly because current investors are scared. I don’t know if I’m just crazy for buying the stock or if within 1-2 years the stock will move enough positively because something very good has happened and buying a very risky penny stock could pay off big for me. If not it is money I can lose and I went into the trade understand the high risk circumstances that the company could just declare bankruptcy for the 10th time (ha ha ha, jk).

A stock that has just hit me hard is Jones Soda Co. (JSDA @ 21.30). Recently browsing stocks like I usually do reading one article going into another I stumbled over a Jim Crammer article I believe of NTRI’s stock page. In the article it talked about small companies with lots of growth and with HANS a simular company was JSDA. I immediately went to go check it out to see the marketing behind the product at www.jonessoda.com website because if you can create an awesome looking product it has a greater chance of becoming successful in my opinion doing a lot of internet marketing. Once I saw it I immediately remembered it because I’ve actually had one before. The soda bottles are very distinct because they are colorful yet classy looking and fun. In my opinion a receipe for success. What I also found out researching the company on the website is that they really involve their customers with their product. Check out the www.myjonesmusic.com link and the www.myjones.com link at the bottom of the webpage. What you will find our brilliant gurrilla-type marketing ideas!!! Freaken awesome. A beverage company letting its customers put their own pictures on their favorite soda, offering blogs, and offering musicians a portal to express themselves can I say awesome again. Pepsi and Coke are maybe mega-huge billionaire companies, but they have no chance against a little companies like this. This company since its small can be more innovative and free thinking again a receipe for success. Anyway back to my story coming across Jones Soda. So after reading the article, checking out the Estimates, company website, and price of the stock I have to admit Jim Crammer could be really right on this company. Sure it has already moved considerably $1 – 21, but I feel an average investor who just gets in now still has much opportunity for future stocksplits and profiting. The only thing I wish the company did offer is stock options, what I enjoy trading, but maybe in time they will offer stock options. Jones Soda Co. is distributed most likely at your local store so go check it out they are delicious. And if you want more bang for your buck and feel like a super hero check out their energy drink Whoopass! Again back to the story, so later that day at work (because I had duty) I turned on the tv and Mad Money came on with the exact story I just read on Jim Crammer. This convinced me even more as a sign from God above that I should definitely look into the company more.

After checking out the site I noticed the company sponsored atheletes and talents. I filled out the application and I hope they contact me. I’ve been longboard surfing for 13 years and it would be awesome to wear a Jones Soda pop rashguard and represent Whoopass! logo. I’d get a kick out of it and I’m sure other surfers would ask me where to get it. I’m also curious if they have an affiliate marketing program because I’d definitely represent Whoopass! banner on my site to keep geeks like me awake while reading heavily financial books that can put you to sleep after just a few pages (try reading employment theory! omg!)

Well anyway be sure to drink a cold refreshing Jones rootbeer soda sometime to relax.
Also remember HASH is tomorrow at 3PM. I can’t wait! Definitely the Turkey trail this time!


Recent option plays BA and NTRI – Also WTVI, CCNG, TRMP

Recently Call Option plays I’m in are BA (Boeing Inc.) and NTRI (Nutri Systems Inc.). BA current trend has been modestly going up daily, receiving new orders, with a low PEG, high FWD earnings, and continual solid growth. BA closed at 89.51. I’m playing the APR 95 CALLS. As for NTRI it just recently surprised Wall Street with excellent earnings and growth. It gapped up and has recently fallen some to where I feel a good buying opportunity is pretty. Just recently in the past 3 days the stock has moved up 2 pts and it’s likely that some of that $200 million buyback program has started with the price traded towards it 52 week low with a good story to rise its price. Analyst have also priced it at $76 with its current growth. I bought JUN 50 CALLS. Did I also mention that NTRI current PEG is below 1.00 at .55 this is at bargain level for a stock this is receiving large growth. NTRI closed at 47.67. NTRI traded .25 higher after hours.

Currently TRMP raised the idea of selling out its Atlantic City, NJ casinos for a cash sale. TRMP up 8% on Friday 9th. Currently I’m in TRMP options long and after reviewing the PEG, FWD earnings, and current sales it doesn’t seem like a great company to buy at the moment. The thing Trump Casinos does have going for them is the brand name Trump, prime location, and current value of half billion dollars. TRMP closed at 18.19.

As for every speculators favorite company http://www.wi-fitv.com the company endlessly puts out new press releases, which is keeping investors involved, at the same time I want the company to start heavily advertising the website on the internet to really raise the traffic, new members, and increased advertising rates for banners and tv commercials. Currently the company values around $250k from the current stock price of $.015 which went up today 25%. WTVI is slowly forming a support price. It broke $.02 cents and I was highly disappointed, but most investors are right thinking it will probably drop into the sub-penny levels. Personally, this is bad for current investors and future ones. A steady gain in price is much healthier and investable. If you see a stock going down and staying down you don’t want to buy it no matter how good the story is on the stock. As for a stock slowly trailing and following WTVI is CCNG. CCNG is a collectables company probably worth more in capital and assets then WTVI, but trading many times lower in the sub-penny levels still. I would be surprised to see CCNG trading at below $.05 by the end of the year while receiving more orders to sell to retail and franchisers. It currently trades at $.0004. If you currently bought 1 million shares it would cost you only $400 plus commissions. That is right only $400 for 1 million shares. If the stock goes to even just $.01 cent you would make a $9600 profit almost 11x more then you put into it.

Another stock to take look at is PSPM a technology company that has created patents for lower energy using lightbulbs and currently highered WestingHouse’s veteran sales person.
The stock has steadily moved down, but if they do sell their licenses expect the capital of the company to be worth over $1 billion dollars. For this reason PSPM is really worth looking at.


Alcoholism, volatile stocks, bullish fools, and my frathouse

Just recently I have not been blogging about the ongoing increasingly volatile market because of a lack of internet connection and motivation. Since my Call Option plays went down hill I didn’t have much to write about until now.

The first correction for my stocks I bought Calls on, which is what I thought was the current correction to buy low, but I was wrong. Nonetheless I move on and now patiently wait for stocks to rally their volatile sell-offs. Google.com just recently hit a low of $437. I would of liked to purchased it when I saw it bouncing backup, but working during market hours prevents me to do more detailed trades. I bought it around the $446 level before it dropped. GOOG now at $557 makes my Mar 07 Call Options now profitable. As for my other options in NYX and TRMP I can not say the same. WTVI.PK and CCNG.OB are slowly being sold off. There is no support at $.02 for WTVI.PK. I think if the company even received neutral press from outside sources the stocks could move higher into it’s May 07 second phase. At less than $.02 Wi-FiTv.com’s stock to an average investor might seem cheap or more buyable, but to me the stock shows future weakness from too many short sellers. Also with Wi-FiTv.com not showing any new improvements as far as increased active membership, sold channels, and filled advertising slots the site is not looking promising. Any investor that seriously thinks WTVI.PK would be a buyout target is kidding themselves. When a big company buys a little company they are already looking for a turn key business that is profitable to add to their massive portfolio of revenue. Wi-FiTv.com hasn’t even started making money yet. So the stock is really only worth $.01 to .05 cents. I don’t think the CEO is thinking like a young person or guru marketer because he isn’t growing his business the way he could be and it doesn’t seem like he takes positive criticism or at least from me! =D I think more word of mouth marketing and banner Ads for their site in spanish sites plus Tv like sites would do wonders for memberships. I think even myspace.com even at one time did Ads on banners, mass emailing, and spamming in college kids mailboxes which helped it grow into a success. Myspace.com spread by word of mouth because it was cool and the thing to do. Wi-FiTv.com will have to repeat this and even better to grow at the rate of myspace.com or youtube.com’s audience.
You have to understand why I am such a critic of WTVI.PK. The #1 reason is that I’m a large shareholder and I want to see the company finish what it begins to start. If it says its going to be the largest online wireless Tv provider then it better do it and to the most satisfactory.

As for volatile stocks GOOG, LVS, NYX, TRMP, NUE, and AAPL are some to name a few. Playing Put Options last week would of been a small fortune made. It is okay I didn’t make it. I will just have to grow more from another painful experience. If I just stayed out of the market as my plan and not trade anymore for Feb 07 I still would of been up at $38,000 in my account.
It isn’t the markets fault for falling it’s my own. Now I have to regain around $16,000 is profits lost in about 1 week sadly. More work and less time will force me to do riskier trades in volatile choppy months. I swore to myself as soon as I regained my money back I’d pay off my $23,000 note on my new car. I should of done this from the beginning, but the evil trader inside of me tells me to trade and try to make more money and instead I lose more money, ironic don’t you think?

You’d think losing $16,000 in 1 week could increase alcoholism in my future and you are probably right. I’ve been drinking more white russians recently (absolute vodka, 2% milk, and kalua chocolate liquer). I don’t over do it when I drink, but sometimes I think a visit to the emergency room pumping my stupidity out would do me some good.

I recently moved into my new room in a frathouse like crib on top of the cliffs of Oahu facing downtown Honolulu city, Diamond Head mountain, my military base, and the west side. It is a million dollar view from this old junky filthy house. I say filthy because of the rat terds that lay next to my chips in the pantry that probably have been sitting there for a year now. The other roommates are pretty laid back guys that aren’t too responsible about staying a bit clean so I clean up after them. I like them all. Everyone has a purpose I just don’t know what theirs is because again I’m very odd in the house cleaning, saving money, and try to manage my money. I should also note the lack of trying to be in the game of chasing the female. One of my friends recently told me I should get a tatoo of “M.O.B.” or “Money Over Bitches” and I thought it was very halarious since it’s probably true. I don’t like to spend money, I’m always a dutch like dater, and I’m all about the sugar momma taking care of me. I rarely pampered by women, but I love it when they do try. I love spending money on someone special. This is why M.O.B. fits me because I avoid relationships because I tie them to spending more money.
When I meet the right woman who is as frugal thinking as I am then she’ll definitely be a keeper.

As for my new frathouse I love it. It doesn’t exactly have that home type feeling to it, the guys aren’t finance geeks, and occassionally I will have to wash extra dishes, but all around it does the job. It is 2.4 miles to work keeping mileage and gas costs low on my car. It is also a straight shot to the local beaches and close to nearby Taco Bell runs. My new room is also almost 3 times bigger then my last. It stays cooler in the higher elevation and the space in the room helps me relax more. I’ve finally got a free wireless internet connection from one of the neighbors and hopes it keeps up. I pay $575 with all major utilities included. I recently had to purchase an oven for $96 because it didn’t have any over or cooking, but if I take care of it I should keep it for many years of use.

If GOOG does have a bullish rally from is lower price range I will sell out of my Call Options around the $470 price range to raise my account up some. It won’t really increase until all my options are profitable again…

-FN


Current option and penny stock plays I’m in.

Currently it looks like the Nasdaq could possibly be ready to start its next bull rally. Many stock charts are showing some selling, but long-term everyone is buying into different Tech sectors.

QQQQ’s Daily stock chart

qqqq stock chart

Recently I saw CCNG.OB was connected to WTVI.PK, but hasn’t been picked up yet. This company already has a good plan in place and is thinking ahead. They aren’t needy of wi-fitv.com to be a hit because they receive much of their business from other businesses buying their products to sell retail. It just recently had an order that will most likely give them repeat business and they are using an internet marketer which is a very smart thing to do if you want an internet presense to receive more exposure to big companies needing their products. I think they are taking the right steps to be successful. I also think their site is setup much nicer, more professional, and the image of the CEO is more updated and friendly stating “yeah I’m an older guy with a beard, but I’ve been in business for a long time and I can do the job right”. This is what it shows me. Alex’s picture from WTVI’s site looks to be from the 1980’s and its just a bad picture. I wish he’d update it. I see it as bad public view. If you say you are an internet video guru at least have a really nice looking image of yourself.

CCNG Daily stock chart

CCNG stock chart

Lately Casino’s have surprised me and they continue to profit and take peoples money. Atlantic City, NJ is making it more gambler friendly restructuring all the casinos and that is why I think LVS and TRMP are good casino plays. Currently the charts show a reversal in price for a possible move up either this month or in this year.

LVS Daily stock chart

LVS stock chart

TRMP Daily stock chart

TRMP stock chart

Last NYX exchange stock has been hammered down and recently shown some bullish trading. The DMI has just recently started to go down again when I saw it going up. This stock is kind of mixed and I’m a bit confused myself. The big trend shows it moving up and if Tech is in then I see this stock moving up higher.

NYX Daily Stock Chart

NYX stock chart