trading stock options

Amazon (AMZN) earnings and the markets

I’m not too surprised to see another internet technology stock do well. Amazon.com is talked about in this book I’m reading by Chris Anderson called The Long Tail (Economic studies). It’s basically about how the internet has created many unique small niches taking over major generic genres that have consumed the markets basically because consumers on had a few choices being mainstream. Now with companies such as AMZN and AAPL and many other companies that offer huge selections consumers can choose what they really want to read, listen, or watch. It is also a reason why cable just isn’t what it use to be. AMZN earnings will likely keep going up in a down market because it doesn’t have typical Wal-mart (WMT)or BestBuy consumers buying mainstream products.
It’s buyers are searching for specific unique products in which AMZN offers millions of products in which it really doesn’t just offer only a few mainstream productss, but many small categories that add up very quickly to create bigger sales at the end.

I think this boost from $50 to $59 (18%) will slow come down, but AMZN’s stock within the year will likely go back to $60, 70, 80 dollars if it keeps proving it can make solid sales during a depressed time.

For a article on AMZN check out
this blog piece done by the WSJ
author.

As for the markets in general they continue to go sideways in volatile ups and downs. AMZN daily chart looks like it is has now two major points creating an uptrend. One more point and will have a full line moving it up so I’m going to keep watching it closely. Other stocks moving sideways constantly are FSLR, SWN, AAPL, GOOG, QQQQ’s.
No real breakouts have happened. There is just too much negative news on unemployment, oil, and bailout bills to let the market change. I don’t think Obama’s new stimulus package is really going to help if not just worsen our economy even more in another 4 years due to adding on more trillions in debt. What this country needs to do is start being disciplined and obey rules instead of paying to break them (meaning getting rid of washing DC lobbyist and putting bad businesses out of businesses instead of giving them money to stay in business).

-fn


Amazon (AMZN) earnings and the markets

I’m not too surprised to see another internet technology stock do well. Amazon.com is talked about in this book I’m reading by Chris Anderson called The Long Tail (Economic studies). It’s basically about how the internet has created many unique small niches taking over major generic genres that have consumed the markets basically because consumers on had a few choices being mainstream. Now with companies such as AMZN and AAPL and many other companies that offer huge selections consumers can choose what they really want to read, listen, or watch. It is also a reason why cable just isn’t what it use to be. AMZN earnings will likely keep going up in a down market because it doesn’t have typical Wal-mart (WMT)or BestBuy consumers buying mainstream products.
It’s buyers are searching for specific unique products in which AMZN offers millions of products in which it really doesn’t just offer only a few mainstream productss, but many small categories that add up very quickly to create bigger sales at the end.

I think this boost from $50 to $59 (18%) will slow come down, but AMZN’s stock within the year will likely go back to $60, 70, 80 dollars if it keeps proving it can make solid sales during a depressed time.

For a article on AMZN check out
this blog piece done by the WSJ
author.


-41% on recent plays – Apple changing status to a downtrend stock? First Solar flipping to the upside now?

Wow. What a confusing market. As soon as I think the markets are stabilizing they do some crazy stuff and caught off guard. Tuesday the Fed lowered the interest rates which was assumed would happen by the market. If it didn’t happen then would the market be tanking right now? I think lower interest rates are good. Personally, if the rates went below 5% I would definitely refinance. On the main page of the Honolulu Advertiser newspaper it said “rush to refinance” I see this as a mega plan for failing mortgage companies to become cash king giants again. Remember every refinanced mortgage they do they earn fat commissions. If within the year more people are buying because of lowered interest rates which means the more you can buy with less money then I’ll definitely be flipping my Hawaii condo for a real fat profit. I’m about to put another $1800 into finishing all the drywall. I figure get it done now when I do have the money so if I can’t sell it within a few years (some major markets chaos) then at least I can rent it well because it looks new.

My bad plays were Apple (AAPL) and First Solar (FSLR). Apple predicts a halt in sales I think this is going to make this stock drop drop drop until Steve Jobs their savior says something different or they come out with something more innovative and new. As for First Solar there was tons of bad news on the company and charts showed it still falling. Then it goes up 20 pts. This week commodities have done quite well. If I would have sold out of my options Tuesday the majority of all my options going into the fed decision rallied and I would have been in the plus likely for all of them. It just shows what one day and one news story can do when trading within days using call and put options.

I’m definitely changing status on AAPL options. Likely will be practicing shorting it with put options here on. Also after a big day yesterday the second day usually lets some gains go. So practice selling today probably wasn’t the best day. 2 days in the trade would have been the best.

see results: (click to enlarge)
12-17-08fnn


short-term down expected with small charts

yesterday as i was viewing my charts for the most part with the movement going into the end of last week i expected some short-term falling in the stock market. now, with the president getting shoes thrown at him i would not think this would be a good thing for future international relations with iraq. hopefully pres. bush will get over it and we won’t get into a war over flying shoes…

i wouldn’t have been in a real trade today because i wasn’t 100% certain. my practice trades reflect right now at least 1 week of movement. on wed. i’ll have to view my charts again to see if i should sell out or stay in. i’m in mar and apr 09′ practice calls so i have time for some movement.

typically the middle of december the market falls then sometimes right after christmas there is a “santa claus rally”. i guess we’ll see what the market brings this year.


when government steps in to bailout market surges up

it seems like when ever the government bails out another company in this case being Citigroup (c) with a “rescue plan” or rumor of one the stock market surged up in the last 30 minutes of trading of the “good” news or is it? look at the automakers…. is it fair that the government only bails out selective companies? i don’t care what the government does i really don’t have much control over it’s decision but i do have control over my stock option trades. i do think if a company made really bad financial decisions then they should go down. let the strongest and smartest survive. so if the asian auto market takes over the usa because they have better management and cutting costs then say good bye to our automakers that created the industry because they don’t know how to “change” with the industry. we need a company that is going to make a big change for the environment and put their business on the line. hydrogen cars have already been made, why not in full production? just stop making normal cars and make better clean energy cars and price them same and i bet people would start buying them like hotcakes because same cost and less gas needed. the problem, oil. politicians still make mega kickbacks on oil so until we don’t bail out oil we are screwed for new innovations in the auto market.

i thought the market was finally going to move up 2 weeks ago, but it continued down some more.
SWN hit $22! bounced back up to $26 and i plan for it to hit $28-30 this would be a definite call option trade if for real. GOOG at $261. wow. hard times i guess on these once big high flying stocks…


my commentary so far….

the market is acting wack and out of control. that’s my statement currently.



stocks jump off bollinger bands – FSLR expected too

I had a hunch today might jump up some after around 2 days of losses, but on the charts everything was still moving down. The only precise clear signal I saw for a real call option trade was on FSLR with it’s big red candle dipping below the BB’s and on smaller charts showing technicals moving up in the morning.

Today stocks really moved with force. I noticed on the charts and highs/lows how much of a swing there was showing major candle wick buying support/confidence. I have to admit the good thing about practice trading and figuring out which side of the trade you should be on is that you can be wrong and not lose money! Currently looking at AAPL charts on the 233 min. there is a clear picture of what happened today and likely on every chart I look at too. For the past week and half stocks have been falling and today from what I see will create a few up days or call option practice trades. Currently many of PUT trades were profitable even though they closed higher because they fell lower.

For a moment I considered staying in the Puts for tomorrow, but the right thing would be do to close them since I know stocks are about to move higher and change sides. The only ones within yesterdays practice trades that would have worked would have been ones hitting low low’s. (or +$1-2 on option)

Now, I still have my “ifs” because also on all the 55 min charts it shows each white candle getting smaller and smaller not hitting top BB’s (except AAPL). So this could also bring me to the conclusion that todays boost could be short-lived and fall again hard tomorrow. I’m going to play dcalls because the charts say a second day of upward movement, but we are still in all downtrends currently. So since I’m not playing long-term Puts I will trade what I see on a weekly basis.

See below with completed practice trades 11/12/08 and new 11/13/08 following:
SOLD
11-13
BOUGHT
11-13-b


new option call and put practice trade picks november 2008

Looking at my charts and current economic market conditions I came to two conclusions.

#1 The market just had a mini-rally, lost the rally, and is continuing in the major downtrend

#2 Many stocks charts show a possible “V” hitting the bottom, hitting bollinger bands on weekly big charts, which MIGHT mean a possible “W” major trend reversal may happen in the next few weeks we’ll see if that last down run will be the last at least for a while.

We’ve been in a full down down down for a full year. It’s likely possible to continue it, but stocks are at real discount prices looks at X and AKS and AAPL which its retail stores are constantly SO BUSY you’d think we were in a real bull buying consumer spending crazy type market. I also like SWN, FSLR, and QQQQ but since everything says “down more” currently I’m playing PUTS except for FSLR which is being pushed down so hard and on shorter charts shows tomorrow it will likely spike some up before moving down more. All my plays are short term likely to be out tomorrow or the following day. I find being in for just one market day increases my profit/time in play for trading options.

see trades below (currently up +700% since august on trades):
11-12


Sold call/put option practice plays – +130%

I was wrong about SWN trying to trade it against the general market while I saw everything else going down. This just shows “the trend is your friend” is the real deal. Below are my practice option trades on FSLR, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ, SWN, ATS.
fn11-6


Although on big charts shows uptrend, short-term stocks will continue to fall again

The day after the election said a lot. Basically in my opinion the markets gained so much in the past week that after election day they puked. At least in the short term on charts it looks like stocks will continue to fall some more especially RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ, FSLR, AKS, and GOOG on daily and 233 charts. The only stock I would bet against the market flow at the money is Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) with its strong momentum breaking through all major down trends currently at $37 which keeps hitting lows of $26 then popping back up to $28-31. I can see it surpassing $45 by end of November 08′ if it keeps up. Magic is happening on weekly charts right now. Real strong support hitting real lows on bottoms slowly curving up creating big U’s showing a real change in direction, but how much change and how soon?

My put option practice plays:
RIMM, AAPL, QQQQ’s, FSLR, AKS, GOOG
My call option practice play:
SWN
fn_11-5


History is made first Black President AND stock market in full upswing gear!

Yes, you heard me right. I’m watching my stocks on charts and their is REAL movement change moving up breaking major down trends especially in Southwestern Energy (SWN) and First Solar (FSLR). It is sooooo hard to not trade this excellent call option opportunities showing upside on all charts. I have to hold back if I want to practice real discipline and wait my full year and commit this to myself. I have to tell myself there will ALWAYS be more trades I can do in the future. If I want to be very wealthy then I need to hold back for one years EVEN if there are excellent trades to be completed. I haven’t been on my practice plays and if there was a time now is very important to be completing them with these big trend reversals in this historical election to see where the stock market goes.

Since the decision has been made and President Obama will be “the man” the stock market should perform better and be a bit ready to propel forwards since there is no “indecision” left. I would be surprised to start hearing some more “hopeful” and “positive” words now that Americans have faith as well as other countries that America can create history again.

I also hope Hawaii voted yes for a majority for its light rail system in the city. I’d like to see better transportation put in if I choose to live here permanently down the road.

Congrats Obama! I think you’ll do okay, but President Clinton in my opinion is still kickass.


market continues to fall – I need to be practicing my put options

Another -500pt drop today for the DJIA. A -15% drop for SWN down to $26 again! These market swings are ridiculous. I’d hate to own stock right now OR trade options. It has been very unpredictable so the phrase “missed money is better then lossed money” is sounding better and better right now while staying out of the market, watching, studying, and practicing my techniques.

Put options are the definite play here still. October 2008 is still crashing. RIMM even at $48. One stock I did read about that really struck me as a great turnaround stock once the market changes its mood is AKS – AK Steel Q3 earnings call. Low profits, but still “solid balance sheets” with a PEG of .16!!!! And still very profitable with new material price increases even with steel prices coming down at the minute. It lowered its forecasts, BUT forecasts for the stock and cashflow are still “solid” and bringing in real cash (hundreds of millions). The stock ended today at only $12 with a high this year of $90. I will be watching in closely with QQQQ’s for likely long long term call option positions after the President is elected.


wild stock market swings continue

these wild stock market swings continuing now are becoming more and more normal. last week was amazing. talk about huge losses and gains. i could only imagine how happy options traders were to get to trade those day trade swings. i’ve been having a hard time predicting exactly what the market will do next. i will keep practicing my option trades. if i can make it through a year i’m pretty confident i can trade full-time on my own. with the current DJIA below 9,000 i think it will likely fall again on monday. i’m likely going to do some call option practice trades going into the Presidential election.


How to deal with your stock portfolio losing value

Interesting subject because learning how to deal with your stock portfolio losing value can be a very important experience and tool for success. I’ve read plenty of money management books, but when it comes to losses it seems the only thing you can do is take a step back, observe, and react to the current situation. What stocks do you own? Are they in industries that are losing gobbs of money and going bankrupt (currently financials and auto). Consider using the warren buffett method or buy staple stocks such as an industry like utilities such as General Electric (GE). At least until we get better energy we will always need electric companies, gas companies, oil, natural gas, and soon hydrogen power such as Ballard Power (BLDP) or HOKU solar (HOKU).

As for emotional pain I say buy a big delicious pizza and treat yourself just because you are investing. Now don’t get fat and eat notoriously with the more negative gains you receive, but know just like a good treat bad things do finally come to an end and you will reap rewards by being patient. I suggest even punching a boxing bag because #1 all the energy you’ll be letting out will make you dizzy and forget about your financial problems #2 it helps you feel better and stay in fit and #3 it will make the meal you can still afford more delicious.

Financial strategies you can think of if you want to switch some of your money during a down market at least I would do woudl be tax liens, buying a rental properties, and shorting stocks or buying up put options on your stocks that are falling then sell off the options once the market changes its mood.

Learning how to deal with your emotions, appetite, and financial strategies should make you feel all around more confident about yourself and your future. Positive thoughts. Yeah…! At least it does for me losing tons of money on a portfolio or option position I need to immediately rethink my strategy. I’ve had to do this numerous times on business ventures I got into and even relationships.


+150% gains on call and put option practice plays in past 9 days

These practice trades stayed in the market longer then I wanted and they actually came out more positive then I imagined with this volatile up down down down market. The best performing in my opinion was my put option practice play on Sears Holding Company (SHLD). Historically the market does start coming up into November so in a way I wasn’t surprised at all to see plays start gaining support and basically up a few points of where I bought them at even with the market continuing going down. I definitely think our market is going down more for some stocks, but for others and the majority we are hitting major support bollinger band points. Usually this means the market is about to fall another big dump or retract and start moving up as I see on some charts like MVL.
I noticed SWN has 3 peaks in it’s downtrend and a big white support candle next to the last fallen peak. At $26 SWN seems like a steal, but sometimes bargain stocks are actually stocks still falling, but I think I will see SWN move back up to $30 again soon.

my practice trades in the market for the last 9 trading days:


interesting times and paranoid economicist! – google earnings

I think Google (GOOG) earnings say a lot about our current economic “crisis” which isn’t much a crisis at all but politicians trying to force Americans into thinking paranoid about their well being to get more control behind the government. That stated Google did fine this quarter. It is up +10% after earning of a profitable quarter. The CEO is smart. They are going to conserve more and take away a lot of the goodies the dish out to employees to save money during the slow cycle we are currently in. America goes through up’s and down’s. Some longer then others. I’m clearly not worried. I’m sure our government will print more money lower interest rates and slowly the cycle will get better and Americans will “regain the confidence level in buying” and maybe just maybe (and when) Obama becomes President if his goal is #1 energy he will spend spend spend on light rail systems, creating denser more populated cities, and have more energy efficent cars like hydrogren and bring back nuclear power plants to power America more efficiently. GOOG has proved internet stocks (tech in general) is still alive and kicking. America is still alive. Yes, home prices are down inflation WILL keep creeping up but you might as well get use to it, I have. Paranoia creates paranoia and negativity IS addicting. So although no one is optimistic I will keep my stance on being very optimistic.

Now I do admit the DJIA and NAS are in downtrend cycles and even with a big +976pt day (supposedly the best day every for wall street) the market will continue to fall after the short brief bump up. It’s okay. Our markets have gained a lot so we have a lot of room to lose then make back up. People keep asking me with a downtrending market what should I buy? I say nothing. I say wait until the President is elected. Then consider buying energy if Obama wins and technology if McCain wins. I actually tell everyone EVERYONE to buy real estate right now instead of stocks.


will big drops in the DJIA become normal? below 9,000 markets continue to fall – call and put options

I noticed yesterday that during the high of the day the majority of my practice trade call options were doing okay but ended up down by the end of the day. For my put options everything is correct which shows stocks will continual to sell off even when they are way out side the bollinger bands or even creating bullishing engulfing candles the next day red/white. Now with the DJIA below 9,000 i think the REAL selling is going to begin. Again, am I going to start buying put options? if I do I break my discipline trying not to do any real trades for one year. i mean, i’m not losing anything NOT trading, right? sure, my friend has made a good chunk and am I feeling impatient, greedy, and trade happy yes, this is the reason why i must not trade until i’m disciplined enough to know a good or bad trade and be smart enough to get out when i’m wrong, which I’m still not. is this saying I won’t do a few real trade put options before the year is over? hmmmm.

i will be posting my put and call practice plays. you can definitely see the puts are in green and calls are in red. tomorrow should be an up day after down 3 days stocks “should” bounce up, but from my experience usually stocks selloff more on a friday expecially near expiration on options.


my practice trades for the rest of the week put and call options – ICE has a real unique chart currently showing “W” reversal.

currently the only chart that stands out from many perfectly downtrends technical charts is ICE with a plain view “W” support bullish reversal on dailly and 233 minute charts. check it out for yourself. since it’s by itself I don’t think i would trade it as a real trade just because everything is moving down so if the market keeps moving down by force it will too.

put and call option practice trades on V,AAPL,ATVI,FSLR,GOOG,HANS,RIMM,SBUX,EOG,SWN,RIG,NYX,MA,DKS,SHLD,ICE


wowzer’s -800pts drop then 500pts drop. what a perfect time if I had the money to be playing put options…

so yes…I see the market continually dropping to new lows and I’m overly anxious to jump in and play put options. the bailout plan passed through, the markets continued to fall, and now yes Fed. bernanke says the economy is just going to get weaker!!! why the heck did we just put $900 billion paid for by tax payers again?? i liked barack obama’s note on firing all the AIG executives and giving the money they got from the Fed back after going on a $400k retreat in california. this of course is while they are going bankrupt and shareholders losing lots of money. yikes.

i would play short term calls into tomorrow morning. i will post this later tonight once i check out the charts if it brings me to this decision even though overall i’d play long-term put options on just about everything. it seems to be a big see-saw downwards into a spiraling of death. kind of reminds me of 2000-2001 drop. it should drop even more. hundred dollar stocks went to 30-50’s so apple could easily come down and get beaten with google and rimm. just look at FXI and many big bank stocks.


market still confused what to do…this week call practice plays only -20%. bailout plan a success? wall st. doesn’t think so.

my call practice plays probably would have done better the day after but i was busy. what happens when you are busy a miss 2 days in the market? more losses for not paying attention. i still had only -20% which still isn’t bad compared to my overall picks and total sum profit %.
i figured the stock market would tank after the final decision has been made on the bailout plan. i didn’t think it would really make a big difference, though if wall street did favor the bill it should have made the market jump higher. so now that the market has fallen, complete opposite of what the news told us, now we are heading into a real october crash. it’s already in pure downward spiral, but will likely dive even deeper. what a mess for a new president. i was for Palin for a long time. well, she’s just freaken hot there i said it, but Obama is the right choice.

here are my call practice plays 9/3 – 10/3 sept/oct end of month.

as you can see it was about 50/50. energy still seems to be bright and wells fargo buying wachovia helped make a big move. wachovia’s a great bank. i wouldn’t be surprised to see it go back to $20-30 once it starts running properly again or make wells fargo worth more. i’m sure citi bank is having a fiss over this only offering $2 billion and wachovia opted out of it. i’m sure there will be hassles over legal issues between all three banks. i’m sure its just a power trip.


after -777pt DJIA drop predictable “sold off” rebound begins

I didn’t even realize how low stocks sold off until I saw today before the open. I would have traded short-term like 1 day in/out call options on them especially the good stocks. But if you watched GOOG today it dropped again to all new lows. Scary. Very scary, but awesome at the same time if you were playing intraday put options on it. I’ve noticed in my optionsxpress account now whenever I am looking at financial stocks basically all of them say “no short selling allowed”. They are really starting to protect companies too much. If a trader is short selling a company then he is betting on the company falling for good reasons. In the real free markets there should be short selling. If the trader is wrong he’ll lose all his money so the trader must no something.

Although I expect the market to continue falling I can bet the market with such a large drop and even a large come back +5% across the board on indexes will move up one more day before they continue you to fall. Now that I think about it they may just rally into Thursday when the Senate votes on the bail. A great economic blog called Giving Up Control makes some real points about the bailout, congress, and wolves disguised in clothes.

Here are my call option plays for tomorrow:

practice call option trades

practice call option trades


the market screams! -700pt drop! what’s next?

watching Fox News they made some points such as wall street is having a fit over this bail not getting finished. for the most part i do believe they are just having a fit, it is just gloomy and rainy right now, but one something is stuck and works for “everyone” not just helping bankers the sun will come out. everyone will be happy, inflation will rise, oil will continue to go up, the president will just talk jargon politics, and life will go on in America.

i have to admit watching the tv screen with the DJIA dipping below -700pts shocked me. i’ve never seen it dip so much. tis true though that the stock market crash of 1929 which everyone keeps referring to, including the president, says we are nearing a depression. well if that was true then the markets would have to drop -50%!!!! the markets have currently dropped between 10-20%.

i didn’t get in any practice trades today either. i would assume the market will keep falling until a bail is passed. i suppose anyone that traded RIMM puts before earnings made truckload of money. earnings are always 50/50. i’ve learned my lessons and anyone that thinks they no better will be humbled by the market when their time comes…


how to work from home, real job opportunities from home

i found some great links and ideas for workers or entrepreneurs interested working at home.

first from a site called Wesabe:
http://www.wesabe.com
this discussion like blog offers great relevant information to pursue a job or contract business with well known companies. the problem, like i’ve found out plenty of times in the past, is that you get caught up with many companies charging money. in this case don’t pay anything. real companies that are seeking workers to work at home on a contract basis, full-time, or part-time will post job offering on their websites. so if this is something you are interested view both of these helpful links.

the second link is from a site called ehow:
http://www.ehow.com
Again, this site had some great comments of previous work from home parties and offering solutions to new people interested in telecommuting. also the blogger of this eHow article writes her own blog with more in depth on telecommuting and working from home with major corporations at her blog called VIRAMERICA.


no plays today – wait for signals on monday

i checked stocks and everything was down. the presidential debate put me to sleep. so i decided since i really didn’t have a feel where the market would go next (although i would have practiced calls) i plan to start my plays on monday. the bailout plan should impact the markets until its finished. i wasn’t paying attention to Wachovia Bank (WB). its at $8 bucks currently falling hard. i didn’t have a clue Wachovia was with the gang of troubled banks. this bank is a huge one all over the east coast. i have a savings account with them i use for collecting and paying for my rent/mortgage. i don’t have much in there, but i predict if it is having serious problems it will likely go to $1 too. i would be playing puts on it. actually, that would be a great practice trade. i’m feeling lazy so i’d play in the money puts on it today at $10.00 (currently already down to around $8). it should likely fall further with more negative news.

i’m almost done with my short patrol at sea. the south pacific is so blue. i’m hoping to hit this bouy in the middle of no where that has excellent fishing. i’d truly love to catch a big fish.

chao.


SWN, RIG, NTRI remain strong. Google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock (GOOG)

stocks seemed silent today and the day before (tue/wed) opened up high for high hopes and then were kind of let down after i suppose all the traders realized now this $700+ billion bailout will be really done by politics. that’s a laugh. it could be weeks or months if they make the decision or never, and who really believe’s fed chairman bernanke anymore? he says if we don’t do it right now then huge side effects will happen. well what if all that bad stuff really doesn’t happen and we let the loser’s lose and not get their pay package? remember, the tax payers are paying for this not the bad CEO’s walking away with their $30 million retirement package. so what to do, who will make the final decision, will their be sometype of real active plan? if i’m going to be paying for anything i sure do hope i get a part of whatever i’m buying.

i’ve been seeing strong reversal uptrend on my charts last week once investors thought the bailout would be quick. what if it isn’t quick? i could really see markets turning if a decision isn’t made. indecision, from my experience, will leave the markets in chaos. they need an answer. i hope its a good one for, EVERYONE. screw those CEO’s that made bad decisions, don’t give them any money or it is like rewarding them.

google’s new G1 could be a hit for the stock not because they are entering the phone market, but because it gets more advertising payment clicks for the company. GOOG also wants their phone to adapt the markets instead of controling it. all these things are great for innovation keeping GOOG a hot stock to watch. likely if people actually get it stock should surpass $500 again easy with all the advertising money it will receive on the mobile market.


put option practice plays – winning stocks i think that hit bottom

currently i’m trading all my favorite stocks as put option practice plays because we just had a mega short rally, the mini bubble burst, all stocks have doji evening stars, and show signs of at least short-term downtrend movement. however glancing at a few stock charts and know how much growth some stocks are STILL having i think HANS, NTRI, and AAPL are real winners and aren’t going to move much down anymore. For one thing HANS and NTRI have been stuck on the bottom for a while and they are slowly starting an uptrend. As for AAPL it has been on a bumpy ride, but going into the Christmas holiday shopping season it should have a better quarter in Jan 09′. Plus AAPL is selling millions of iPhones, regardless of a reduction in price, it is gaining growth market daily. NTRI and HANS are also at the top of Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies. NTRI has been having sour quarters, but still growing so when it does have a very good quarter the stock price could really run. ICE has a huge evening start stretching huge support and resistance on both sides. SWN and RIG are strong currently in energy sector. I think after this third top going down will be a strong support area and that will be the bottom for at least energy, excluding stocks like FSLR which I think could fall a lot more down. RIG has actually broken it’s downtrend so if SWN and RIG are positive this week I would think it is going to be the real bottom and start playing calls up.

see put option practice plays below:

put option practice trades

put option practice trades

Currently where financial institutions are going I would keep playing it a put until things really change. It seems tax payers are really going to burn for corporate errors again instead of the companies paying for their own problems. I admit if a person bought a home they couldn’t afford and they lost it I’m okay with that. It is not the banks fault, it is the customers fault for being stupid. But when the bank screws up I do not think it is fair when the big American federal reserve bank bails them out if it isn’t going to bail out the American working class (although if they did I would want a free house too).


second day rally continued. closed out call option practice trades +200%

Energy again performed best in my opinion. my lowest performing call option trade was GOOG JAN 420 call options. i suppose they only got 6% is because it’s such a big fat stock so maybe the options trade a bit slower with price increase. now just because today had a good continuing rally that doesn’t make me think this is the bottom or the new trend will continue. this could be just a bigger bounce. what the fed did or rumored to do doesn’t subtract the trillions of debt our country is in nor does it stop credit hungry Americans from spending their entire paychecks. my point is that we are a consumer spending society not a saving one. one of my co-workers was telling me its so different right now, people stopped spending, and i told him that’s bullcrap. the fact is where the people that messed up their credit with foreclosures and don’t have credit power anymore the new rich who sold their houses at the highs or becoming new landlords will step in and start buying.

here are my call option trades closed today:

closed out call options after second day rally

closed out call options after second day rally


i’m confident good fed news will lift stocks up into second day rally – call options plays

i don’t think the positive Fed rumor of creating an entity for bad debt is going to completely solve everything, but appearantly it caught investors attention because stocks made a big emotional move in the end of the day. stocks especially that show most interaction and strong confidence to move higher were energy and financial stocks. i didn’t see a whole lot of love with tech even though they were lifted for their short-term charts nothing really broke through. for example for apple had to hit like $150 or google in my opinion needs to hit over $450 to show a real change.

these call option practice trading picks are very short-term, although they could turn into long-term plays if the fed rumor hypes up wall street and it turns into a longer rally:

call plays on fed news

call plays on fed news


put option practice trading plays still performing well. +270% today/SUM +190%

my put option practice plays worked out well this week. i would have traded likely AAPL put options as a real trade if my account wasn’t at $0 currently. if i had $100k i would have traded all of these confidently. this type of trade is the trade i need to look for with a rush of buying or selling, bounce, then trading on the bounce for the following day. since my currently goals are to pay off my condo repairs i won’t be adding any free money to my account. condo first, trading second. i think once the new president is elected there will be some great fat profit plays. i can wait until then. for now check out these great put plays that worked out as i thought they would.

most recent practice plays:

put practice plays middle sept 08

put practice plays middle sept 08

all practice trades together:

all current practice plays +200

all current practice plays +200