tech stocks falling

AAPL, GOOG, & PCLN continue fall from peak after subtle expected pop.

So in my two earlier posts I first analyzed and came to a long waited gut conclusion with these weekly faster and bigger moves that the top peaks of a few fat stocks looked like they were ready to sell off. Particularly Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Priceline (PCLN). I predicted a pop after the quick fall on Monday for all three stocks to having a buying opportunity especially on AAPL Tuesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday the stocks popped up. Then I planned on Thursday into Friday, if I was correct about the possible new downtrend starting to begin, to show after the initial quick trade on Tuesday. Today, all three stocks got hammered except GOOG.

However, with GOOG I find an exception because it hasn’t moved back up as quickly like AAPL and PCLN. GOOG seems like it is a turtle slowly going down a hill whereas AAPL and PCLN are like college frat kids jumping off into deep blue lagoon abysses. 

After Wednesday I initially thought GOOG out of the three would have been the best practice trade to follow in and trade on real money, but after two seeing all three continue to fall I’d say it’s safe that all three are in for a short-term stock price correction.

Now on Friday even the MSFT did well in earnings I don’t think it’s going to affect my stocks. All three stocks will likely fall another 10 points into next monday.

Currently here are the 3 practice put options I have in play:
(bought on close of the 16th – the better trade would have been the close on the 18th)

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 / currently at $16.55

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 / currently at $19.50 (still likely the weakest and best put play)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 / currently at $12.17

And I’m going to add an QQQ NASDAQ index put option due to how heavily these 3 stocks can weight on the QQQ index because it is ALSO at it’s peak high which has been squatting at the price of $65-67.

Buy QQQ 66 MAY PUT @ $1.42 (close of 4/19/12). QQQ’s are slow but likely the least amount risk out of these 3 larger options as seen just by the movement of the options except for Google because it hasn’t moved much only slowly falling. However, if GOOG continues to drift downwards it could have a sudden couple of big falls.


Apple’s stock falling like Russia’s economy, double whammy!

Well as we all know Apple’s stock (AAPL) currently at $161 is likely to move further south in prices. Similar to Russia’s falling economy from communist old thinking practice and current socialism starving the economy from a bit of capitalism so is to say Apple Inc’s stock price. I’m a bit worried about Apple’s future too. Now AAPL has some great products, great hardcore customers, and lots of cash, but the truth is our economy is changing and there is plenty to prove it with many companies dealing with subscribers such as Sprint (S @ $8) and AT&T (T @ $38). Both companies and credit card companies are having more and more defaults in payments. This means small consumers that buy electronics and plans are having more trouble paying their bills creating less extra money for higher priced ticket items such as iPhones, Laptop Airs, and more expensive data plans. The Fed says slower growth, but the market makers will take that as “less sales, oncomming recession”. It is a double whammy blow to higher PE stocks such as AAPL, RIMM, GRMN, GOOG, BIDU, and solar stocks such as HOKU and FSLR. No wonder why these stocks have been dropping like Einsteins apples off trees with no reason to fight science floating in free air back up. Google (GOOG @ $600) says a lot about the market. It is a high growth stock with a low Peg of 1.20. By this time at the price of $600 it should consistantly be moving higher and hitting support levels which it isn’t. This also brings me to the point that if PE is falling then so will big stock prices as in the 2000’s.

We might just be receiving slow growth and the markets get a little choppy which should be understandable, but all off my technicals show to a downward spiral and I’m curious how low will stocks dip before real buying happens.

I loss my initial investment of $2000 + my $2000 in profits I made in the past month on the AAPL JAN CALL 220 options this month. I’m telling myself not to trade. Now that I’m at $0 in both of my brokerage accounts + my mobile home park was a total bomb with my lying property manager I’m in a bit of stress and panic. I should not trade when in panic. Yes. So once I can put it behind me so I don’t “revenge” trade trying to make back money that I lost. I’m not a shitty trader as much as I lose I do it making really stupid trades, not necessarily bad trades. My trades wouldn’t be bad as long as I sold out once I knew they were bad which I rarely do. I 100% of the time was them go to worth $0 and if I can just stop that thinking and get some damn discipline then maybe my life of trading can finally turn around.

I setup my automatic payment on my car to $1200 so I couldn’t get out of paying off my car debt off early. This way it will be paid off in around a year or less. My big fat student loan for my real estate purchase has hurt me the worst at 12% interest now I can’t pay it off as planned. It is being paid monthly and preventing me to pay off my home mortgage sooner. I’m in big doo doo as little kids call it. I stink of financial problems. If I am truly a financial ninja I should be able to get me out of them this year. I need to start saving before I get out of the military to have capital to do something with even if its moving to a third world country to retire on. I know I can do it just need the will power to do it.