High Probability Trading by author Marcel Link + More
Just recently I started a new stock traders book High Probability Trading by author Marcel Link. So far I’ve gotten through the Preface. It isn’t very dry and it seems to push all the lessons and rules I have learned from many great traders. Marcel Link stresses disciplined qualities and I’m sure it will be a great read. I think reading about what you are most interested in being a success in is a step to becoming it, but as I’ve already reading actually trading with real money is the true test. I just recently finished the book How to Become a Stock Market Genius. It gave some interesting ideas I haven’t heard of before and I plan to practice them on paper to see how they work out. A book my friend is reading called How to Trade like Jesse Livermore is one of the best books I’ve just glanced at since I started reading it when he put it down. Many of the stock market rules in the book are the same I’ve been taught. I can’t wait to read it once he is finished so I can borrow it.
Recently the stock market, although choppy, has been feeling overall bullish since the economic reports and fed chairman Bernanke have been sending upbeat views. Employment is strong, oil is rising and stocks are rising with it, GDP is rising which is good because it could raise rates, but inflation remains flat and companies growth is still increasing which bulls want to hear.
NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI @ 52.41) has been going up a steady slow incline for the past week up around 4 pts since last Friday. If it hits $60 then my options trade for NTRI JUN 50 Calls will be up 100% and my GTC order should sell out. As for my other trades well they aren’t looking so good. For one thing, Boeing (BA @ 89) has just been hanging out at just $89 for too long. I own APR 95 Calls and my option is starting to decrease with the expiration date catching up. NYSE Group (NYX @ 93) has had a strong gain up to $97 and came back down to catch its breath. I expect it to go much higher and sell me out once it goes over $100 for my SEP 115 Calls. Another stock that has been flapping on the ground like a dieing fish is Trump Casinos (TRMP @18). It moved to $19 and has fallen down since after talking of a full sale of Trump Casinos to a larger casino. I’m wondering if a deal does go through how much of a premium would TRMP get bought out for? I’m wishing over $20 would sell me out of my JUL 25 Call position.
Long-term stocks that I own for speculative possible big gain chances are CCNG.OB and WTVI.PK both now trading below a penny, which sucks in my opinion. They have been both collecting and moving forward, but for some reason the stock price has been moving in the oppositive direction I think mostly because current investors are scared. I don’t know if I’m just crazy for buying the stock or if within 1-2 years the stock will move enough positively because something very good has happened and buying a very risky penny stock could pay off big for me. If not it is money I can lose and I went into the trade understand the high risk circumstances that the company could just declare bankruptcy for the 10th time (ha ha ha, jk).
A stock that has just hit me hard is Jones Soda Co. (JSDA @ 21.30). Recently browsing stocks like I usually do reading one article going into another I stumbled over a Jim Crammer article I believe of NTRI’s stock page. In the article it talked about small companies with lots of growth and with HANS a simular company was JSDA. I immediately went to go check it out to see the marketing behind the product at www.jonessoda.com website because if you can create an awesome looking product it has a greater chance of becoming successful in my opinion doing a lot of internet marketing. Once I saw it I immediately remembered it because I’ve actually had one before. The soda bottles are very distinct because they are colorful yet classy looking and fun. In my opinion a receipe for success. What I also found out researching the company on the website is that they really involve their customers with their product. Check out the www.myjonesmusic.com link and the www.myjones.com link at the bottom of the webpage. What you will find our brilliant gurrilla-type marketing ideas!!! Freaken awesome. A beverage company letting its customers put their own pictures on their favorite soda, offering blogs, and offering musicians a portal to express themselves can I say awesome again. Pepsi and Coke are maybe mega-huge billionaire companies, but they have no chance against a little companies like this. This company since its small can be more innovative and free thinking again a receipe for success. Anyway back to my story coming across Jones Soda. So after reading the article, checking out the Estimates, company website, and price of the stock I have to admit Jim Crammer could be really right on this company. Sure it has already moved considerably $1 – 21, but I feel an average investor who just gets in now still has much opportunity for future stocksplits and profiting. The only thing I wish the company did offer is stock options, what I enjoy trading, but maybe in time they will offer stock options. Jones Soda Co. is distributed most likely at your local store so go check it out they are delicious. And if you want more bang for your buck and feel like a super hero check out their energy drink Whoopass! Again back to the story, so later that day at work (because I had duty) I turned on the tv and Mad Money came on with the exact story I just read on Jim Crammer. This convinced me even more as a sign from God above that I should definitely look into the company more.
After checking out the site I noticed the company sponsored atheletes and talents. I filled out the application and I hope they contact me. I’ve been longboard surfing for 13 years and it would be awesome to wear a Jones Soda pop rashguard and represent Whoopass! logo. I’d get a kick out of it and I’m sure other surfers would ask me where to get it. I’m also curious if they have an affiliate marketing program because I’d definitely represent Whoopass! banner on my site to keep geeks like me awake while reading heavily financial books that can put you to sleep after just a few pages (try reading employment theory! omg!)
Well anyway be sure to drink a cold refreshing Jones rootbeer soda sometime to relax.
Also remember HASH is tomorrow at 3PM. I can’t wait! Definitely the Turkey trail this time!
March 31, 2007 | Categories: BA stock, CCNG, CCNG blog, CCNG stock news, CCNG website, CCNG.OB, investing in penny stocks, investments, Jones Soda, Jones Soda Co., JSDA, JSDA blog, JSDA stock, losing money in stocks, mega growth stock, myjones, NTRI, NYX, NYX stock chart, online tv site, penny stocks, profitable penny stocks, speculative stocks, stock market surfboard, surfing, trading stock options, TRMP, Wi-Fi TV Inc., Wi-FiTV.com, WTVI, WTVI.PK | 1 Comment
New 2007 year begins with negative news from Fed, also Apple’s big week, sell-off on Asia ETF’s?
First off the Santa Claus rally did happen ending 2006, but Fed news for 2007 this week made investors sell. Investors were not to happy hearing rates will not be cut and possibly rates to go up later in the year. I think this should be expected if the Feds are trying to balance the sheet with inflation. We are way behind on inflation. Although if interest rates rise higher and inflation goes higher that is a signal for a bearish looking market to come. The recent oil drop to $55 BBL and Steel stocks way below their 52 week lows are starting to hit support. Take OIH Oil Trust @ $129 and NUE Steel @ $54. If you expecially look at NUE charts it shows a correction is starting to take place with a reversal hammer to go up with a long stick down showing the stock being bought up in the past week. Also my Puts. NUE hasn’t gone down past $54. It went from $60 to $58 to $54 and again I was up 25% but because I didn’t sell out when I was up the option is down because it is getting near expiration date with the stock supporting at $54. I took my first loss today because if I am going to start the New Year off right then I need to sell my options not doing anything for me, which brings me to Apple. Apple’s Mac week is next week which should bring up its stock price with good news from it because it seems Apple has really gone out of its way to make a “bang” this year for customers. Even its website keeps its new products mysterious and creates excitement for Apple users. Apple earnings is January 17, 2007. Profits on iTunes downloads and new iPods are predicted to ramp up sales and show a surprise. Right now my option is down -150% and I need to bring it up to at least to break even at $1.42. The option price even with the current good news raising the price to $86 has done little for raising the price back up.
One big lesson I’ve learned with options and buying out of the money in the same month of expiration is that once you are up 10-30% in the option when you are right the first 2-3 days get out immediately with your profits and don’t wait for the stock price to move further. I was correct in my AAPL, NUE, and AMAT options but because I did not sell them immediately after I was right I’ve lost on all 3 of them. As Cramer says you haven’t made any money until you sell and it’s in your bank account.
Recently China’s ETF purely liquid fund FXI has vomated out 10% of profits. FXI hit a high of $118 and just recently in the past 2 days fallen over -13pts. If you look at the charts the stock is one huge line up from skyrocketing up with buying. Even I feel some selling is going to go on. I still think FXI is going higher, but the stock price could come down past the $90’s for now. It’s predicted that if China’s markets have a sell-off in the new year that for the next couple of months the stock will go to half its current stock price. If that was true then that would be a very profitable PUT option play on FXI. I am going to examine that charts on it to see if the sell-off reversal is going to hold and more profit taking will happen. Currently FXI is up 80% and falling. Jim Cramer says in his internet articles that since Asia’s companies are so liquid that owning the ETF fund makes it even more risky unless you can wait for it to come down and buy back into it. I even have a friend who bought FXI around $93. I asked him if he sold it when it his $112 or even $118 he said he didn’t. I would of sold for that type of profit. Now he does own the stock. I’d never buy the stock I’d buy the Call options which would of been worth a couple thousand right now even with the fall. But now with a new trend it might even be easier to play it down then to play it up.
As for the new year my first port call was Manzanillo, Mexico. It was beautiful although the surf wasn’t going off in town I heard there was surf farther north or south. I checked out 5 different properties for sale and really liked this smaller 1bed/1bath with huge lot overlooking the Santiago bay. It was actually a really nice casa that just need a bit of upgrades to make it a really great rental, but I am currently finding it very hard to get a loan that makes it profitable to own it and rent it out. I first thought mortgage of $600-700 would be okay because I’d have to get out a second loan with a mortgage of $200 around to make upgrades like new electrical, upgrade kitchen, and furniture to make it a turn-key rental that is just 3 blocks to the beach and 5 minutes from downtown shops. So now with the only loan I can receive at 20 years at 9.9% mexican rate which would be over $700 month not including all my taxes, insurances, and bank trust fees a year + my second loan over $200/m for cosmetic upgrades to make somebody want to rent it I am finding it might not be the best investment right now. Even if I could rent out easily for $1000 a month for a solid 6 months out of the year that still leaves me with $900 X 6 month = $5,400 out of my pocket a year to pay for something that isn’t rented possibly or even possibly for 1 whole year would be over $10,000 which could be saved in an account. Long-term if the property rises 10% a year because the town is growing and many projects are being built their my return on investmetn could be 30% in 3 years by the time I get out of the military I could have $30,000 in equity built up if I sold it and could cash out. I’d really like to talk to a professional about this, but don’t know who to talk to because most people do not understand investments like this. I can get this loan, but I just don’t want to struggle with payments since in 3 years I am out of the military I’d be up to $2,000 a month in mortgage and car loan bills! This is not good. It would only be good if I could sell my property for a good size gain or pay off my first mortgage and my car loan only leaving one big bill left. If I am able to rent it a solid 6 months out of the year for possible more that would help on my payments, but I’d like to live in something I own in the end.
So I still have more port calls to make. I might find a better deal somewhere else. It would just be awesome to live so close to the beach where great surfing waves are. I just want to make wiser decisions because I want to be either debt free or have great investments in 3 years. If I make wrong decisions it could bring on the pain and put me again behind schedule in retiring early and young.
January 6, 2007 | Categories: investments, money management, personal life, ROI, Saving Money, stocks, surfing, Surfing in Mexico, trading stock options | Leave a comment
My first blog inspired by other financial bloggers aimed to help individuals learn how to increase their goals to a faster retirement.
Hi. I’m Paul Meyer and will be writing this blog under the name Finance Ninja. I thought up the name fighting between Money Kung Fu and my cyberspace nerd name elektrowhiteboy. I’m an ordinary big nerd. I think up the craziest things to say, do, and help people with. I am great at saving and creating ways to make money. So I thought Finance Ninja was the best general name for this blog I’m going to pour my heart and soul into. Unlike other financial wisdom bloggers I am going to go down other dark roads to help you learn more about the power of money. Money can help you or destroy you, and you really need to choose right now in your life what it will be.
I am currently in the United States Coast Guard serving a 4 year term with around 3 years and two months left at this point. I’m very confident in my decision in join the USCG to save money, surf more waves, and live in a fresh new place. To make a comment on that you can move anywhere, but you will always be the same person inside so lets find out really who you are and help you manage your money more efficiently.
My name is Paul. I have an addiction and it is saving money.
August 25, 2006 | Categories: finance and economics, investments, kung fu, money management, ninja, personal life, power, stocks, surfing, u.s. coast guard | Leave a comment