stocks

when government steps in to bailout market surges up

it seems like when ever the government bails out another company in this case being Citigroup (c) with a “rescue plan” or rumor of one the stock market surged up in the last 30 minutes of trading of the “good” news or is it? look at the automakers…. is it fair that the government only bails out selective companies? i don’t care what the government does i really don’t have much control over it’s decision but i do have control over my stock option trades. i do think if a company made really bad financial decisions then they should go down. let the strongest and smartest survive. so if the asian auto market takes over the usa because they have better management and cutting costs then say good bye to our automakers that created the industry because they don’t know how to “change” with the industry. we need a company that is going to make a big change for the environment and put their business on the line. hydrogen cars have already been made, why not in full production? just stop making normal cars and make better clean energy cars and price them same and i bet people would start buying them like hotcakes because same cost and less gas needed. the problem, oil. politicians still make mega kickbacks on oil so until we don’t bail out oil we are screwed for new innovations in the auto market.

i thought the market was finally going to move up 2 weeks ago, but it continued down some more.
SWN hit $22! bounced back up to $26 and i plan for it to hit $28-30 this would be a definite call option trade if for real. GOOG at $261. wow. hard times i guess on these once big high flying stocks…


History is made first Black President AND stock market in full upswing gear!

Yes, you heard me right. I’m watching my stocks on charts and their is REAL movement change moving up breaking major down trends especially in Southwestern Energy (SWN) and First Solar (FSLR). It is sooooo hard to not trade this excellent call option opportunities showing upside on all charts. I have to hold back if I want to practice real discipline and wait my full year and commit this to myself. I have to tell myself there will ALWAYS be more trades I can do in the future. If I want to be very wealthy then I need to hold back for one years EVEN if there are excellent trades to be completed. I haven’t been on my practice plays and if there was a time now is very important to be completing them with these big trend reversals in this historical election to see where the stock market goes.

Since the decision has been made and President Obama will be “the man” the stock market should perform better and be a bit ready to propel forwards since there is no “indecision” left. I would be surprised to start hearing some more “hopeful” and “positive” words now that Americans have faith as well as other countries that America can create history again.

I also hope Hawaii voted yes for a majority for its light rail system in the city. I’d like to see better transportation put in if I choose to live here permanently down the road.

Congrats Obama! I think you’ll do okay, but President Clinton in my opinion is still kickass.


Bought Microsoft Office 2007 program – big change

Microsoft Office 2007 is a big change from the existing series. I like it, but at the same time I feel I have to learn the entire program all over again. Now that I have Excel at home I have NO EXCUSE not to keep up with my excel practicing stock option put and calls. I’m actually in a computer science class that is on advanced excel and access 2007. I hope I learn a lot and I’m working on getting an A. Going into my masters program in management I want to make sure my GPA this time around is plenty high enough to get in. I could definitely see Microsoft Office 2007 boosting in new revenue for Microsoft’s stock (MSFT). Funny I say this because I actually bought the entire Microsoft Office 2007 advanced applications off a download site where you just purchase the program. I only paid $250. The actual cost such at Best Buy would be around $600-800. One of my computer programmer friends these download sites are out of China basically bootwaring the program with illegal data and actually use my data to spy? I’ve used these straight download sites before and the programs have had no errors or problems. So is it a replicate illegal China download site or a real company that does pay off Microsoft some type of royalty? Good question. For now I have my receipt showng I paid for the full program as a downloadable file.


stock market correction = uptrending

If you are a stock market follower you’d notice the different wording journalist are using such as “optimistic” that we hit our low just recently last Thursday Aug 16 to be exact. I was watching the market as AAPL was hitting $112’s and NYX was hitting $65’s. I was drawing my support lines because after the big red candle dropped a big white candle stood right next to it top to bottom and went right up with buyers looking for a golden opportunities. Since I’m still a student I really did not know which direction the market would go. On Friday stocks popped higher creating a doji star showing the market made up its mind. So now for the past almost 6 days the market has ran up with white candles breaking the downward trend since July 15th. I’m currently in AAPL JAN 200 CALLS up around 30% in my options +$3000 in 2 business days. I’m not going to sell at some crazy high number, but I am going to follow the major uptrend line until it is broken or bad news comes out, other wise I’m stick to my play. I’m very confident in Apple and until their next earnings call I’m going to trade it up to earnings or until I’m happy with my profit. I’d also love to be in SHLD and RIG Calls, but I’ve been taught to be in only one trade at a time even if there are other opportunities available. I need to stick to the rules and show some discipline or I’m never going to become a great trader.

Currently I’ve been looking at a trailor park to buy for $190,000. I’ve talked to many experts in this field and the price looks very good for what I’m getting which would be an 18 lot, 2.37 acre, with 18 park owned homes rented for $350-450 each, with all utilities established. It is around 20 minutes away from University of eastern Tennessee (Johnson City, TN). I’d really like to do the deal, but I want to get an outside property manager if I buy it. This is the advice I’ve gotten basically to get rid of any favoritism within the park. It would make some serious cashflow to my real estate portfolio. Between the 2 trailor parks I will eventually be receiving around a $50k net income a year more than my U.S. Coast Guard income so it would finally give me the choice of retirement at age 29. I still want to be a great trader, but it would give me choice even if I did not trade stock options.

I’m almost done with my 3 classes at HPU and will start another 5 online in the next two semesters. I want to double major by 2009 then do some pastry or music school or both when I get out. 2007 has been a very volatile year for my portfolio and my goal is to come out higher than last years or at least breaking even. Many of my penny stocks are worthless so I will have to sell them soon or I will be paying some serious taxes from gains I do not have anymore. Trends are looking good and the technicals are showing major buying right now so look out!


Reading my stock market diary exactly 1 year ago…

Flipping through my market diary I find that many of my stock picks I follow are up around $20-30 pts or 25-40% in price. Specifically AAPL, NTRI, BA, GOOG, SWN, TGT, GME, FXI, and many others. I’m hoping to use some of my diary to get some excellent plays in coming this fall. The stock market has really been rising with todays big increase in the Dow Jones I wonder when the market will flip. Last year at this time oil was hitting highs of $76/BBL and currently we are around $71 from where it dipped at $61. Most of these stocks still have a low PEG score with low P/E. I’m curious if we will have a high priced stock market in the next year or two where we will see the majority of stocks priced over $200 including stocks not supposed to be priced that high which will eventually fall the hardest again.

Currently I’m checking out another real estate deal since this 5-unit apartment building fell through because the seller would not communicate with me so I could get escrow and my mortgage lender setup correctly to buy it. Another property I put on hold was a hotel unit for sale where the hotel pays you X dollars upfront for leasing it from you for 2 years giving you guaranteed rent up to 4 years then your unit goes in a pool to rent out and you collect from that. It is on the Hilton Head Island, GA. It is suppose to be a premier spot in the south east coast so I’m going to do some research on it. It costs $249,000 with a 10% down payment and I’d get back my closing costs plus another $30,000 with in 2 years of closing if I leased it to to the hotel company. But after the 2-4 years I’d be forced to put it into the pool to rent out and unless the hotel shows full occupancy 6-9 months out of the year long-term it might not be a good deal. I would earn $50,000 back in two years which would pay for my student loan of $40,000. It would produce $700/month cash flow if rented full occupancy 12 months a year. I’m going to discuss it with the seller today and think out my options. Even if I made $300/month continually after the 2-4 years it would still be a great secure cashflow.

Besides money life I went to check out a new room to rent and met two cools girls. I ended up not renting the room but asking one of the women out to breakfast and got a “yes”. I didn’t think it would be so easy. So luckily this saturday morning date will be a lot of fun. I’ve never asked out a girl on a date by checking out rooms for rent, but hey nerds theres an idea.


The Google monster gobbles another insect company up!

Google Inc. (GOOG @ $466) as you should know put in a bid for $3.1 billion for Double Click which could help increase the companies growth and monster advertising machine. GOOG is recently priced way below its target of the $550 price range and its PEG score is trading about under 1.00 which most analyst would consider it a bargain stock. Last year GOOG’s earnings were great and the stock sky rocketed up 35 pts and within 4 days dropped almost 40 pts. What does this mean? Maybe much of the stock price was already amped up into earnings and the stock price did reflect the earnings data which made the stock hype immediately start selling off. GOOG is the #1 tech/internet stock for the past 3 years. Although I can currently see the price steadily moving up with a strong trend I also feel GOOG will be hit the hardest when the next fly-by-night tech/.com’s come again. It isn’t like GOOG isn’t worth $466 and it does have billions in cash so it isn’t going bankrupt any time soon. Google is also doing the right things as a growing company to keep market share, sustain growth, and be around a very long time. But when the market does turn (maybe this summer?) I think GOOG is going to be hit hard again down to the low $400’s to possible $350’s to shoot back up to over $500 when the real investors step in that will drive the price back up. Also recently Google.com is starting to create a more personalized look for users like Yahoo.com uses. In away I think this is a bad idea, but also it could help generate more revenue for the giant if yahoo.com users would switch entirely to google.com if google.com gave that personalized web-home experience.

Earnings this week have been good so far expecially with McDonalds (non-tech) MCD @ $48. I previous said around 5 months back that MCD was a buy @ $43. MCD has steadily moved up the charts and showing positive growth for the giant franchise real estate/fastfood company.

Earnings I’m anxious to hear about is GRMN, AAPL, GOOG, BA, NTRI, and RIMM recently we already know increased profits. Bad news for AAPL that again they are delaying their new software Leopard and iPhone. I already know of many people ready to buy the iPhone regardless of price young and old. It is going to be a success. I hope they fix ANY and ALL bugs with it before it becomes internationally distributed. I know a select amount of individuals that do have ongoing problems with their iPods crashing or freezing and for the most part Apple had worked to satisfy those customers head on. Another company to look at for is Sears Holding Co. (SHLD) for retail sales outlook. Luxury retailers have been doing well again this year too. Many economists say the market will be a volatile choppy one and so far the waves have been pretty large. Look at NYX with it trading over 100 then down to 80 then back to 100 again. I’d consider that a sweet trade if I’d only focused on it. My concentration has been rather off the past 6 months and I need to get back into just focusing on stocks I previous traded before that I know much more about.

So far this year I’ve definitely ventured off into the hard rocky dangerous path by choice. It has helped my increase my goals faster, but also has worsened my ethics and rules for proper trading to live a long traders life. I’m slowly crippling myself the way I am trading and if I don’t start really pushing healthier trading habits I will die.


Wi-fiTv.com (WTVI.PK) following a minor uptrend, BA, NTRI

Wi-FiTv.com just came out with a new press release on posting wedding video. I have to admit this is something definitely I don’t see or hear about on the web. The company is either crazy for thinking this up (being a private more intimate memory) or they are brilliant and wedding video posting might be worth $$$. I guess in the months ahead as they establish themselves on the internet (because it doesn’t just happen overnight coming from experience). WTVI.PK stock price has been volatile because it is a penny stock and because of this you shouldn’t ever be afraid. You aren’t invested your next egg or childs college tuition, you are rather investing a few thousand dollars or the price of a nice flat screen Tv. It is a speculative company.

WTVI.PK has been starting to follow a minor uptrend and lets all hope it continues with increased buying in the stock (the only way it will go up). I noticed today much of the buying probably was from the press release from over 13 million shares traded. For such a small company many shares are traded because relatively any investor can buy a couple 100,000 shares for less than a couple thousand dollars which is hard to do with any dollar stock.
Current stock price is support in the .012 to .02 range. Click on picture to enlarge below.

WTVI.PK Daily Stock Chart

wtvi.pk daily stock chart

Current Boeing has created a large candle with increased 787 orders and follows a strong uptrend. Check out chart.

BA Daily Stock Chart

BA daily stock chart

Nutri Systems Inc. has recently popped after earnings and mildly traded lower from the volatile sudden increase. 200 million share buyback is in place by company and target has been raised to $76 from increased growth. Besides this the companies correction was good so investors could get back in at $44 stock price. If the stock does not hit $49 by the end of the week I’m selling off my options most likely if the stock trade reverses itself. Currently the trade has a good story, but NTRI hasn’t been picked up on yet or Jim Cramer. Today it traded lower but 8 minute chart shows its still bullish to move higher into the next trading day.

NTRI 8 minute stock chart

NTRI 8 minute stock chart

NTRI Daily stock chart

NTRI daily stock chart


Recent option plays BA and NTRI – Also WTVI, CCNG, TRMP

Recently Call Option plays I’m in are BA (Boeing Inc.) and NTRI (Nutri Systems Inc.). BA current trend has been modestly going up daily, receiving new orders, with a low PEG, high FWD earnings, and continual solid growth. BA closed at 89.51. I’m playing the APR 95 CALLS. As for NTRI it just recently surprised Wall Street with excellent earnings and growth. It gapped up and has recently fallen some to where I feel a good buying opportunity is pretty. Just recently in the past 3 days the stock has moved up 2 pts and it’s likely that some of that $200 million buyback program has started with the price traded towards it 52 week low with a good story to rise its price. Analyst have also priced it at $76 with its current growth. I bought JUN 50 CALLS. Did I also mention that NTRI current PEG is below 1.00 at .55 this is at bargain level for a stock this is receiving large growth. NTRI closed at 47.67. NTRI traded .25 higher after hours.

Currently TRMP raised the idea of selling out its Atlantic City, NJ casinos for a cash sale. TRMP up 8% on Friday 9th. Currently I’m in TRMP options long and after reviewing the PEG, FWD earnings, and current sales it doesn’t seem like a great company to buy at the moment. The thing Trump Casinos does have going for them is the brand name Trump, prime location, and current value of half billion dollars. TRMP closed at 18.19.

As for every speculators favorite company http://www.wi-fitv.com the company endlessly puts out new press releases, which is keeping investors involved, at the same time I want the company to start heavily advertising the website on the internet to really raise the traffic, new members, and increased advertising rates for banners and tv commercials. Currently the company values around $250k from the current stock price of $.015 which went up today 25%. WTVI is slowly forming a support price. It broke $.02 cents and I was highly disappointed, but most investors are right thinking it will probably drop into the sub-penny levels. Personally, this is bad for current investors and future ones. A steady gain in price is much healthier and investable. If you see a stock going down and staying down you don’t want to buy it no matter how good the story is on the stock. As for a stock slowly trailing and following WTVI is CCNG. CCNG is a collectables company probably worth more in capital and assets then WTVI, but trading many times lower in the sub-penny levels still. I would be surprised to see CCNG trading at below $.05 by the end of the year while receiving more orders to sell to retail and franchisers. It currently trades at $.0004. If you currently bought 1 million shares it would cost you only $400 plus commissions. That is right only $400 for 1 million shares. If the stock goes to even just $.01 cent you would make a $9600 profit almost 11x more then you put into it.

Another stock to take look at is PSPM a technology company that has created patents for lower energy using lightbulbs and currently highered WestingHouse’s veteran sales person.
The stock has steadily moved down, but if they do sell their licenses expect the capital of the company to be worth over $1 billion dollars. For this reason PSPM is really worth looking at.


Bought back WTVI.PK @ $.023 – WTVI Marketing Plan

In WTVI’s latest press release the company does not say when they will use the $1 million dollars either before or after May 1st at least they have a plan now. A marketing plan that isn’t specified yet its a plan. I wrote WTVI asking them to please specify on how they will use the money whether it be on banner Ads, Google Ads, Overture, Linking, TV, Radio, or Pop Up Windows. I’d like to see their Ads when they come out to build their user database.

Currently at around $.018 to .025 I feel their is support and that is why I bought back some shares back like I planned to do when the stock dropped to a price where I felt it should be at. I would of waited to drop lower, but the price has been bouncing back up anything below $.02 so I purchased today at $.023. Once WTVI starts generating some revenue from advertising (when they get paid advertising) the stock will be worth at least $.10. With a little bit of hype, press releases, new investors buying stock, and growing user base the stock has a likely hood of rising to $.20 cents by May 1st. This is a BIG “IF” the company does aggressively market their website, new users come back to the site to use it again, and advertisers also agree that the wi-fitv.com site will also generate them revenue. Even at $.10 to .20 cents is an excellent profit on any amount of shares you have.

I’d really like to see the companies management come out with with a press release saying they are going to buy back as many shares as possible. It would show that the chairman and employees believe in their own company not just speculative short selling investors. Even if the chairman said he was buying back $10,000 worth I’d see that as showing he has credibility in what he says he is going to do.

Another stock following WTVI’s pattern, but has not been bought up by investors that is generating business currently is CCNG.OB (Charts of it are below also).

Below is Charts of WTVI 55 Minute, 233 Minute, Daily, and Weekly stock chart:

55 Minute

wtvi 55 minute stock chart

233 Minute

wtvi 233 minute stock chart

Daily

wtvi daily stock chart

Weekly

wtvi weekly stock chart

CCNG, a product company, offer collectables for business to business retail and consumer retail (through wi-fitv.com and internet marketing) has started to receive orders. The company has also been in business many years and has recently gone on the pinksheets to grow the company. The currently price of the stock at $.0008 does not reflect the revenue it is already receiving. I estimate the stock to be worth at least $.01 – .05 depending on continued growth, residual orders, and paying off debt. Below are some stock charts of the 55, daily, and weekly.

CCNG.OB stock charts:

55 Minute

CCNG 55 minute stock chart

Daily

CCNG daily stock chart

Weekly

CCNG weekly stock chart


INP ETF Fund & ERIC Technical Analysis

India has been growing as an emerging country and starting to put in place the technology that will turn it around. Broadband internet is being placed throughout India. Wi-Fi cafes are becoming a hit and if the country does anything right we should see continued movement upwards in this ETF fund INP. A specific wi-fi company in India is SIFY.

INP Weekly Chart

INP week stock chart

INP Daily Chart

INP daily stock chart
________________________________________________________________________
2/23/07 Recent INP has broken through it support level around $53 and trades a little over $51.
All charts show it going down further until the downtrend is broken.

Another stock riding the internet technology wave is Ericsson Co. a telecommunications backbone company that provides 3G wi-fi services and networks. It’s earnings is April 24, 2007 and it has a solid trend up. It also has a low PEG score of 1.38, 13 Fwd earnings, expecting a surprise with increased earnings guidance.

ERIC Daily Chart

ERIC daily stock chart

ERIC 233 Minute Chart

ERIC 233 minute stock chart

It seems technology hasn’t been fully bought expecially telecommunication stocks. I believe this tech sector will gain the most this year just because for its growning need for this type of technology, positive news, analysis are buying it, the big players are putting their funds into it, and wi-fi/wireless/cellphones are the biggest trend right now. SIFY, ERIC, and ANAD seem like great plays. I don’t see any trades on any of the ANAD charts currently. It just received an upgrade and its speculative if the stock will show a profit this earnings. A big investment firm believes in it and it is a major player in the 3G and wireless technologies. Most of these stocks or competitors with these stocks offer leap year options for 2008 and 2009. I’m definitely considering just buying 10 contracts for 1 or 2 of these companies and not trading for the rest of the year. If companies are regular purchasing into the companies the stock should continue to trade higher, get upgrades, and the way the trend is setting the place for a wi-fi life profits should follow.


Technical analysis for LMT, CMG, OIH, and ALGN stock charts + More

Recently I’ve been doing some technical analysis on many stock charts. I’ve found LMT, CMG, OIH, and ALGN to be with best plays for trading stock options. Also a review on GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, WTVI.PK below with some information on our real estate bubble we have going on today.

Lockheed Martin Co. (LMT) has a strong uptrend and will continue until broken. The current bearish conditions aren’t effecting it, at least yet. (Click image to enlarge)

LMT Daily Chart

LMT stock chart

Chiptole Resturants Group (CMG) is looking like a short-term pullback to around $59. If it supports at that level then it should continue up its trend. So far it has done very well for a new IPO in this market. (Click image to enlarge)

CMG Daily Chart

CMG stock chart

Oil Holders Trust ETF fund follows oil. Currently oil has started to move again, but keeps getting pushes down. I see OIH short-term moving further down and would place Puts. Now for tomorrow it looks like OIH and oil that plunges 4% will pop higher – see my 55 minute chart. It’s direction shows upward morning movement. (Click image to englarge)

OIH Daily Chart

OIH daily stock chart

OIH 55 Minute Chart

OIH 55 minute stock chart

Align Technologies (ALGN) a teeth braces company has just recently bought out a partner, had a profitable quarter, was just upgraded, and is creating a strong uptrend. (Click image to enlarge)

ALGN Daily Chart

algn daily stock chart

Some other stocks you should take notice of right now is Google Inc. (GOOG) falling to $458 which looks like it will fall further before it is bought into again. GOOG is sliding down against the Bollinger bands so I’d expect it to have small rebounds down. Apple Inc. was just murded down to around $83 everyone keeps talking about how it is overvalued right now, Citigroup just upgraded it to a buy with a $105 price target with excellent commentary, and it is just about to come out with new products late Feb 07. These are all reasons I think its going to get out of its downtrend and crater-like chart. I feel RIMM which is moving volatile sideways will soon push past the $140 mark to hit its target once AAPL moves fast in the same direction. The stocks almost mirror each other in movement and news.

Another stock to take notice is WTVI.PK – Wi-fi Tv Inc. I’ve bought up around 853,000 shares and thats about all I’ll invest (around $3800 position). From everyone I’ve posted with on blog discussions the investors are very unhappy with how the company is going about getting channels, members, and an audience. So am I. The funny thing is all these people have bought shares and I guess you can say we are 100% gambling with where the company will go. So far my investment has gone up 100% from $.004 to .01 below is a stock chart of WTVI.PK. I think the stock will really move if the format of the site has really changed to welcome young people and uploaded better content to keep visitors watching the channels.
(Click image to enlarge)

WTVI Daily Chart

WTVI daily stock chart

I just recently read an article on Richdad.com’s site about the dollar falling and putting your money into gold and silver. I can’t agree or disagree because I don’t know much about buying fine metals, but what I do agree with is the real estate market is out of proportion and ready for a big bust. If you are ready you could make a fortune after the bust if you have money ready to pour into cheap fundamentally good real estate.


Wall Street is happy with Fed’s “management” of soft landing economy – Also a OTC stock called Wi-FiTv.com

Today investors were happy including wall street with the Fed’s holding the rates unchanged and applauding Feds for “managing” the economy well even though the Feds caution investors ahead. Rates stay unchanged at 5.25% made the market go up after final decision was made. Many stocks have been beaten down and I feel one that will gain a lot from this will be Catepillar Inc (CAT @ $64) with a profitable quarter and positive outlook with economy.

I just recently have been viewing Hawaii’s craigslist.org for extra part-time income for my spare time when I get back to save more. In the sales jobs I found a sales opportunity for selling online Wi-Fi Tv channels at $25,000 a pop!
Seems expensive but could be very cheap if this site would become the number #1 for Wi-Fi Tv downloading on wireless laptops, PDAs, PSPs, and Cellular Phones. I checked out the site, the publicly traded company on the OTC pinksheets OTC: WTVI.PK, and CEO. Bad things are its financials with a lot of liabilities and debt. Positives are if it could gain market share in the online TV generation it could be bigger then uTube.com offering actual Wi-Fi Tv to download and watch anywhere. Currently after a 1:500 stock split (truly bad) this stock tanked and lets say its original investors lost a great deal of the money they invested. Now the stock just sits dead smashed at less than a penny @ $.003

Now this could be an opportunity with the company pushing a new sales force to sell the site and channels and working on website traffic the companies stock is very speculative. Owning 100,000 shares after commissions would be a very low risk investment even if you lost all your money. Say the CEO and company does just one thing right and your investment could easily be worth a mega percentage more while the company grows and starts to pay off liabilities to become profitable.

Wi-FiTv.com is something in the near future. uTube.com has already made uploading videos and watching them possible, trendy, and sold for billions of dollars to Google.com. Now to actually have a trendy Wi-Fi Tv service I think its going to take a lot more dedication and shows users are actually going to want to watch. Right now Wi-FiTv.com is just personal shows with some small bits of real tv news programs like Bloomberg.com and webcams.

It is currently trying to sell channels at $25k a piece for advertising or charity? Give me a break! Users don’t download advertisements to watch! This is where I’m confused and think the company is going to have a road block. I think the right thing would be selling $25k advertising Ads and making all the channels frees. Making millions of channels somewhat like uTube, but more geared to shows, talkshows, podcasting, and events and let users search what they want to watch and have advertisers pay to be in that main area with their specific unique product or service. Now that would make more sense. I’m going to talk to a sales rep selling channels. I’ll see what he/she has to say and see if I can actually view Wi-FiTv.com on my Sony PSP game sole which is Wi-Fi capable.

I need to be sold first before I invest even $100 into this company. If all these channels presently on Wi-FiTv.com paid $25,000 a piece for a crappy show or wi-fi tv advertising I’m going to be blown away because it seems like a waist of advertising money at this point. After viewing the channels as a free user nothing makes me want to use the service or watch it because theres nothing interesting on the site.

Once I get more on the scoop of WTVI.PK I will be sure to post something new good or bad about the company.


Lower forecasts, weak earnings, missed earnings it all works for me.

Lately the market has been in a slump and I plan on it to keep falling with continuing conservative estimates for Q2 earnings, weak earnings, missed earnings, and price wars for the chip technology sector. Bad results are still profitable for me and easier to spot out. My 90 APR 2007 Put options on AAPL are up $1.20 or around 15% percent. I bought them at $90.53 and the stock price of AAPL is currently $86.70. They were up as much as 30% today, but the current downtrend of the market, its negative tone on earnings, and increasing oil prices kept me in the option since it is going in my favor. I definitely want to sell out soon, but I can wait because AAPL is still due for a bigger drop in stock price, I think below $80. I also own 75 Feb 07 Put options and they are up 25% percent, but not worth as much. My 70/30% earnings report options play didn’t work as I assumed it would. I think the smarter way of going about earnings is seeing what happens the day after and buy calls/options upon the results. With stocks either your right or wrong about the direction. Once you know the direction and the general market tone and where it is going the smart thing to do is trade with the current direction.

You can view stock charts of current technology and oil stocks trends I did (Click here).

Currently I really like NUE for steel and OIH and COP for oil stocks to buy to go up now. I think these are going to be the best plays for profiting in 2007 for the first 8 months.

I think AAPL could have a growth spurt later in the year once the iPhone is being sold and see how consumers respond to it. I already know I’m pretty likely to buy one because I really do not like my RAZOR. I like Cingular, just not the phone.


Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs could make AAPL stock fall hard

Lately Apple Computer Inc. has been getting some great reviews on it’s new product line for 2007 secretly done by AAPL CEO Steve Jobs. I think even earnings this year with selling the smaller iPod Shuffle to the masses could be a hit and we already know iTunes has done superb selling downloads just another cash growth machine from Apple. What we also hear about over and over is the AAPL stock options probe on Apple itself and going after the CEO of the company Steve Jobs. If CEO Steve Jobs is asked to step down or leave this could be dangerous for the stock price. I could see it falling more than 10% in a day. Recently after the hype about the new products from the Mac Expo 2007 the stock has been slowly treading down which isn’t strange because the stock is up around 12%. Some profits will be take off the table. I think it will go higher into earnings. I think it will be a very volatile year for Apple.
If the iPhone does very well and is a hit it could be the biggest trend setter yet since the iPod started in 2000. If CEO Jobs has to leave it will damage and hurt investors, but only for the short-term as long as Apple sustains its growth and products sell and produce earnings beating Wall Street Analyst estimates. AAPL currently trades at $95.

A former real Wall Street analyst blogger I found did a great job commeting on his Coffee Brew for Friday Jan 12. I like what he has to say. He sounds very knowledgeable about the market.
I’d read some of his posts and I think he is also right about Computer sales for the Tech Sector about AMD. I think you could see some change later in 2007.


New 2007 year begins with negative news from Fed, also Apple’s big week, sell-off on Asia ETF’s?

First off the Santa Claus rally did happen ending 2006, but Fed news for 2007 this week made investors sell. Investors were not to happy hearing rates will not be cut and possibly rates to go up later in the year. I think this should be expected if the Feds are trying to balance the sheet with inflation. We are way behind on inflation. Although if interest rates rise higher and inflation goes higher that is a signal for a bearish looking market to come. The recent oil drop to $55 BBL and Steel stocks way below their 52 week lows are starting to hit support. Take OIH Oil Trust @ $129 and NUE Steel @ $54. If you expecially look at NUE charts it shows a correction is starting to take place with a reversal hammer to go up with a long stick down showing the stock being bought up in the past week. Also my Puts. NUE hasn’t gone down past $54. It went from $60 to $58 to $54 and again I was up 25% but because I didn’t sell out when I was up the option is down because it is getting near expiration date with the stock supporting at $54. I took my first loss today because if I am going to start the New Year off right then I need to sell my options not doing anything for me, which brings me to Apple. Apple’s Mac week is next week which should bring up its stock price with good news from it because it seems Apple has really gone out of its way to make a “bang” this year for customers. Even its website keeps its new products mysterious and creates excitement for Apple users. Apple earnings is January 17, 2007. Profits on iTunes downloads and new iPods are predicted to ramp up sales and show a surprise. Right now my option is down -150% and I need to bring it up to at least to break even at $1.42. The option price even with the current good news raising the price to $86 has done little for raising the price back up.

One big lesson I’ve learned with options and buying out of the money in the same month of expiration is that once you are up 10-30% in the option when you are right the first 2-3 days get out immediately with your profits and don’t wait for the stock price to move further. I was correct in my AAPL, NUE, and AMAT options but because I did not sell them immediately after I was right I’ve lost on all 3 of them. As Cramer says you haven’t made any money until you sell and it’s in your bank account.

Recently China’s ETF purely liquid fund FXI has vomated out 10% of profits. FXI hit a high of $118 and just recently in the past 2 days fallen over -13pts. If you look at the charts the stock is one huge line up from skyrocketing up with buying. Even I feel some selling is going to go on. I still think FXI is going higher, but the stock price could come down past the $90’s for now. It’s predicted that if China’s markets have a sell-off in the new year that for the next couple of months the stock will go to half its current stock price. If that was true then that would be a very profitable PUT option play on FXI. I am going to examine that charts on it to see if the sell-off reversal is going to hold and more profit taking will happen. Currently FXI is up 80% and falling. Jim Cramer says in his internet articles that since Asia’s companies are so liquid that owning the ETF fund makes it even more risky unless you can wait for it to come down and buy back into it. I even have a friend who bought FXI around $93. I asked him if he sold it when it his $112 or even $118 he said he didn’t. I would of sold for that type of profit. Now he does own the stock. I’d never buy the stock I’d buy the Call options which would of been worth a couple thousand right now even with the fall. But now with a new trend it might even be easier to play it down then to play it up.
As for the new year my first port call was Manzanillo, Mexico. It was beautiful although the surf wasn’t going off in town I heard there was surf farther north or south. I checked out 5 different properties for sale and really liked this smaller 1bed/1bath with huge lot overlooking the Santiago bay. It was actually a really nice casa that just need a bit of upgrades to make it a really great rental, but I am currently finding it very hard to get a loan that makes it profitable to own it and rent it out. I first thought mortgage of $600-700 would be okay because I’d have to get out a second loan with a mortgage of $200 around to make upgrades like new electrical, upgrade kitchen, and furniture to make it a turn-key rental that is just 3 blocks to the beach and 5 minutes from downtown shops. So now with the only loan I can receive at 20 years at 9.9% mexican rate which would be over $700 month not including all my taxes, insurances, and bank trust fees a year + my second loan over $200/m for cosmetic upgrades to make somebody want to rent it I am finding it might not be the best investment right now. Even if I could rent out easily for $1000 a month for a solid 6 months out of the year that still leaves me with $900 X 6 month = $5,400 out of my pocket a year to pay for something that isn’t rented possibly or even possibly for 1 whole year would be over $10,000 which could be saved in an account. Long-term if the property rises 10% a year because the town is growing and many projects are being built their my return on investmetn could be 30% in 3 years by the time I get out of the military I could have $30,000 in equity built up if I sold it and could cash out. I’d really like to talk to a professional about this, but don’t know who to talk to because most people do not understand investments like this. I can get this loan, but I just don’t want to struggle with payments since in 3 years I am out of the military I’d be up to $2,000 a month in mortgage and car loan bills! This is not good. It would only be good if I could sell my property for a good size gain or pay off my first mortgage and my car loan only leaving one big bill left. If I am able to rent it a solid 6 months out of the year for possible more that would help on my payments, but I’d like to live in something I own in the end.

So I still have more port calls to make. I might find a better deal somewhere else. It would just be awesome to live so close to the beach where great surfing waves are. I just want to make wiser decisions because I want to be either debt free or have great investments in 3 years. If I make wrong decisions it could bring on the pain and put me again behind schedule in retiring early and young.


Apple Computer (AAPL) the good news and bad news…

As you all have heard if you read any financial online news Apple Computer’s commity board has cleared CEO Steve Jobs of all the options probes, which lifted the stock price up 5% Friday to around $85. My options will become unsellable soon if this coming week Wed through Friday of 2007 AAPL does not move back to the $90’s now with a big kick of momentum. I feel the better decision to invest in would of been FXI index fund now around $112 which would of been the easier more trustworthy trend to follow, but there are not woulds and coulds in investing. Once your order has been taken you are in. Yes I had the option to get out early loosing only a few hundred dollars, but my darn concious has not been disciplined yet. I just don’t want to loose and I am starting to think because I don’t want to loose I actually loose not only my money I save to invest, but also my gaining confidence that I can be a successful long-term trader in the stock market. Sometimes I feel like there is no hope in my trading because I don’t know how to say no to trades I want to get into. There is no “Happy in Seatle” ever. I just want more more more. I ended up adding to loosing trades turning them into bigger loosers and when I do get out profitably I’m not happy with my results even if I get a big gain because I did not trade correctly how I was taught. I don’t want to keep learning lessons in the market. I want to make solid outstanding trades. I just need to become that solid outstanding disciplined trader able to accept to be a looser and let the market win sometimes because I’m learning many times you might not be correct so you have to get out when you are wrong.

Apple Computer after releasing CEO Steve Jobs from the option probe looked like it could come around until it unleased a handful of plaintiff lawsuits against AAPL’s “itunes and ipod monopoly”. I’d really like to punch the company or person in the face that has these claims. You know Apple was a nobody company back in the 1970’s and nobody really believed in it. It started with just college kids liking to program and make a difference in the home computer world with little money. They didn’t start out thinking they were going to dominate the world with a huge monopoly on music downloads, computers for artist and movie makers, and iPod players that consumers just want so bad. I’m sure every company in the back of their heads and in their mission statements wants to be successful with no limits to profits. Sure there is a lot of marketing involved this is what most any successful company does – Find out what consumers want to buy and Apple made big bucks doing just this – Great Ads for iTunes and iPods.

Apple computers stock and computers were really only bought by schools through the 1980’s (I remember using them and learning how to type on them in Middle School), and not until the 1990’s they were highly loved by musicians and artists. Until CEO Steve Jobs came out with the iPod around 2000 Apple was a nobody in the computer business with such a small niche. Now they have a product everybody loves and did a great job with it’s sales force and upgraded their computers to compete with PC’sto be bought by their new customers wanting only Apple and you have the right to throw a lawsuit against them? I guess it is your right, but I’d like the right to knock you out. So stop bitching and come out with own great product that you’ve worked secretly hard on and sell it to the world.

I see AAPL moving up or staying at the same price until earnings and see it still dropping unless Apple Computer creates new history for itself. It currently has a high PEG score over 2 times which means it’s being sold, although its EPS and growth looks really good to keep the stock moving up over time if it can keep momentum with new computer sales growth is the real key to Apple’s long-term success with new products.

I’ve recently been reading Cramer’s book “Mad Money” the new one and will be doing a review on it soon.
Cheers -FN


2007 best stock picks for options trading

Updated! 1/12/07

2007 Stocks picks were easy to pick out at least from charts. 2006 stock picking was difficult because many of the stocks I was watching at the time traded very choppy and with the drop in May 06 to Aug 06 it caught many investors off guard. You could of threw a dart at any stock in Aug 06 and would of received excellent profitable returns on it. Last year this time Google flew to a new high then tanked. The second half of 2006 market has been very bullish that thinking the bears are hiding around the corner isn’t a possibility, but they are! At least I think so. I think some older stocks like Amazon.com are going to fly higher again while stocks that have been in the spotlight for a long time like Google.com, Sears Holding Co., and Apple Computers are going to fall the hardest at the top of their game. This is option investing so this is why I am interested in stocks that could fall hard meaning big profits and also pick stocks that I think will also go up in price.

[For my own practicing I’d buy these Call/Put options today at the current stock price as if I was for real. I will go over my top picks 6 months and 1 year after today to see if I was right about the direction of the stock or until I am happy with my profits. These Calls/Puts will be used on my 2007 best stock picks for trading options. (To make it easy I will buy 10 contracts (1000 shares) for each Call and Put) I may be incorrect during the short-term on these fluctuating stocks, but for the long-term before the end of 2007 I predict the following most profitable.]

2007 Top stock picks for Call Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade higher)

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI @ $107.65) 1/3/07 hit $118 +10pts
FXI ETF Fund has been extremely strong in strength closely following our market trends but includes over 90 companies held in China that are growing with China’s economy. Big uptrend solid on all charts. Plus everyone knows how fast China is growing and with this ETF you own the companies that are receiving the profits. Possible dips but strong on uptrend.

Amazon.com (AMZN @ $39.80) Would sell. Weak around $38 1/12/07
I predict Amazon.com Co. to head north to $60 or close to this price level because solid earnings, increased profitability and revenue, and buyers are finally interested in the stock again. Yearly trends are forming into an upward trend. Two upward peaks have already happened. Amazon.com is a great place to buy theses off of. It has everything and consumers come back. If you look back at strong sales growth in AMZN when it does well the stock jumps and heads higher for months until the profit taking begins. AMZN is undervalued under $40.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG @ $56.25) 1/12/07 hit $58.20 +2pts
CMG is a new company and does simular family-like resturant but hip like Apple Bee’s and TGI Friday’s. Delicious food turning into a delicious stock investors are eating up. Although I feel $56 is actually high, CMG is setup to go higher and has a strong IPO trend. I see CMG moving to over $60.

Research in Motion (RIMM @ $127.62) 1/8/07 hit $142 +15pts
RIMM has been having an outstanding year with AAPL and technology sector. Robust profits and keeping market share. It has been pulling back, but trends have not been broken. I still am confident RIMM will hit back up to $140 then to $160 before it either has a stocksplit or falls from an “okay” quarter.

2007 Top stock picks for Put Option Trades: (Meaning I believe these stocks will trade lower)

Google.com (GOOG @ $458.00) Wrong about GOOG. At $455 it bottomed out. 1/12/06 hit $505 and rising. Buy with current uptrend going into earnings.
Google.com may goto $600, but indicators are showing it will go below $400 price level first. Google is loosing its fame and fans and the stock is being sold off.

Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $166.63) Also wrong about SHLD 1/8/07 bottomed at $165 now hit new year high 1/12/07 at $177 +10pts up and rising with strong retail sales. Buy going into earnings.
Chart indicators show a “Black Cloud” hovering on the top showing weakness in buying. Could be a large move downward into the $130’s.

Apple Computer (AAPL @ $81.51) Half correct so far about rising to fame with the Mac Expo going as high as $97 1/10/07 +16pts wait to see after earnings and what happens to CEO Jobs for options probe.
Apple Computer has shown the most evidence after earnings in January to come down. I think this year for Q1 Apple will have a great year, but investors will be selling while they are having a great year. Although I think short term into earnings Apple should perform well back into the 90’s, which hasn’t happened yet -10pts within the past 2 weeks I believe AAPL will have a rise to fame then crash and burn to around $65 support price in Feb-Mar 2007. Yearly charts are lined up to go down hard, but up short term on oversold stock. For the most part it seems most stocks are lined to sell off in 2007.

2007 Wild Cards – The Steel and Oil Industry could go either way. I predict the following.

OIH Oil Holdings (OIH @ $140.00) 1/11/06 hit $126 low +14pts on a PUT play, right, but maybe bottoming out to go higher with low $51BBL oil could rebound. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price lands around $120-130 I’d rebuy Calls. Charts currently show selling off. But big trend shows oil could be getting a lot more expensive very soon.

Nucor Corp. (NUE @ $55.54) 1/12/06 hit $56. Seems bottomed out and cratering to the upside. Earnings Jan 24. Never went lower then $54. I’d buy Puts at the moment and once the price hits $45 rebuy Calls. Downtrend currently, but long term steel could get more expensive very soon.


Monster Growth on Monster Energy drink made by Hansen Co. (HANS)

I was viewing Krispy Kreme Donuts (KKD) earnings report on Yahoo! Finance and then went on to read an article on it, through that article I read an article on Hansens Monster Energy (HANS) drink with anaylst thinking it will be the next KKD on its quick rise and possible hard down fall because HANS stock price has gone up 6,000%. Monster Energy drink sales and energy drink trends were being related to KKD by anaylst, but I beg to differ. I do not see how you can relate a dessert food with an energy drink. I do not think a Krispy Kreme Donut consumer thinks they are going to think and focus sharper or get a boost of energy to stay awake where as Monster Energy drink consumers do. They say energy drinks are just a trend. I do not think this is the case because many new companies are coming out with their own energy drinks to take shelf space away from the big guys Monster and Red Bull Energy drink. Lately, new energy drinks such as Rockstar, Who’s Your Daddy, and even Hulk Hogan’s “Hogan Energy” have hit the shelves besides Coffee Caffiene drinks like Starbuck’s (SBUX) Double Shot. Energy drinks are rich with sugar, caffiene, and ginseng. Other ingredients include some minerals and vitamins if you are lucky.

Currently HANS is ranked #2 as the fastest growing companies in Fortune’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies this year. HANS just recently created a partnership with Anheuser-Busch to help Bar and Resturant Sales, increase distribution, increase market position to make Monster Energy Drink #1 over it’s main competitor Red Bull Energy drink. HANS current stock price is around $34 which is 20 times it’s forward earnings statement projections. HANS Monster Energy Drink is considered to overtake Red Bull’s market position to dominate as #1 in Energy Drink sales by June 2008. I feel there is still room for HANS to go higher then its $52 stock price high on growth and earnings projections for the company. The company beginning stock price was around $.07 cents. Talk about a turn around story for a penny stock starting in 1996 and 10 years later your stock being worth probably around $1 million. I feel their is still growth, stocksplits, and possible buyout for Hansens by a bigger company like Coke or Pepsi. The 1 month chart shows HANS could possible pull back some more, but if you are buying long the 1-5 year charts show a bullish uptrend with still more upside. The 10 year chart expecially shows HANS being sold-off hard at the 52 week highs showing increase buying just recently. I will do another review on this stock in a couple of months to see where its at.

What do I drink? Personally underway to stay wake during those late hour shifts I have bought around 4 12-Pack cases of Red Bull. I don’t necessary like them (the taste), but they do give me a caffiene boost to focus on my work, surfing the internet, and studying stocks. I am going to try out Monster Energy drink soon. I hope it’s relatively the same price for more drink. If so I’d switch because Red Bull is such a small can. I’d like to have more to drink and more to boost me awake!


Apple (AAPL) iTunes Store receives 90% of PAID Video Downloads

I found this paragraph interesting on an off subject source on video downloads for the movie industry:

Of paid downloads, 62% was TV content, 24% was music video content and 6% was mainstream movie content. Where were consumers buying these downloads? About 90% percent came from Apple Computer’s iTunes store, with 5% coming from movie-subscription site Vongo, 3% from movie download service Movielink and less than 1% from movie download service CinemaNow. ”

For the full news article click here.

This came from:  www.Forbes.com

Apple Computer is currently trading lower and lower.  I find it painful because I see on the charts the next day it will trade lower and I rebuy Calls at lower points waiting for a big buy back, but I think these dumb anaylst are still pissed about backdating options, iPhone name being taken by Cisco (CSCO), no show for financial reports, and Jim Cramer’s opinionating voice is not moving Apple up like any other stock he would usually vouch for.  Jim Cramer keeps saying everything is misleading and Apple is worth more and creating major growth.  I am with him completely, but currently the public investor is selling it off.  So until an institution comes in with “strong buy” (of course while the load up on it first to make the real profit) I will have to patiently wait for the 50% solid run that will go up into earnings.  Problem is “time decay” with call options when you are dumb like me and buy this month for maximum profitability and maximum loss…   Smart thing to do buy lots of time and deep in the money, oh yeah but that would of been the right thing to do.  Shit.  I can’t stand being young and immature.


A rare quality. Struggles making you stronger. Creating your success. Just do it.

Christopher Gardner CEO of Gardner Rich & Co. is a rare man who created his success.  I just recently saw his brief life story he sold rights to for the new movie “The Pursuit of Happyness” starring Will Smith.  I find this man fascinating and simular to myself as a young ambitious entrepreneur.  Although I can not say I am as glorious as he is being ultra successful and finding his happiness I can say I have struggled.  If you have struggled at all and stayed optimistic through your difficult struggle you will definitely admire and enjoy this film on one year of his life story.  I went to go see it because I wanted to see Wall Street, stocks being traded, and a man making it in the business.  What I ended up seeing which was even stronger insight then making money was being able to make it through an overwhelming struggle against all odds.  I’d highly recommend the movie to any Will Smith fan who played a great role or person seeking some motivation to help you with your current struggle.

I could write an entire blog website on my struggle.  I think I am still not completely over it and still working everyday to creat my own success.  All I can say is that Chris Gardner is an extraordinary person and he has such rare qualities.  So little individuals would go through what he did to get what they wanted with such a good attitude.  I’m not saying the movie perfectly portrays him, but if you read his interviews he is a very well spoken courageous individual.  As in the movie I also once bought into a business venture thinking the world was with me until I found out I was also totally wrong about what I was selling.  I received the same reaction from friends and family and it was the hardest time of my life getting through it.  The fact is I did get through it by believing in myself. I’d love to meet Chris Gardner.  He must be an abundant man of love.  I know his fund for raising money for South Africa will be a success.  I believe in him.

As for me I will keep working, learning, and living my dream I want to accomplish everyday of my life until I complete it.  Thanks Chris Gardner for being such an inspiration.


Garmin (GRMN), Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple Computer (AAPL), NUE, and China Energy Security

Hi.  I read in the news today that General Electric (GE @ $37.36) and Westinghouse Electric Co. will be receiving mega big multi-billion dollar contracts to build nuclear reactors throughout asia specifically the mother herself China.  Since I found this ETF Index Asia fund on China (FXI) I’ve been very bullish that it will continue to move in the $120 to high $140’s.  If you just look at the big picture of China building a New Yorker City every month that can add up to a lot of booming business turning China into an economic powerhouse.  China has billions of people that will be needing and wanting what American’s take for granted.  GE will be building many nuclear reactors to create energy security for these new huge cities.  Yes, there is still communisim but it is regulated and small entrepreneurship is being granted to business people.  Businesses are underway and paving the way to a better society for its people.  FXI index fund invests in many electric, water, cable, oil, and many other companies already in China that are China businesses making big profits because China is building itself, proving it wants to be number #1.

Notes on other stocks: 

Research in Motion (RIMM) was just recently at $125 and I told my sister it was a good buying level because I felt the support price and a possible stock split in the near future.  Just 3 days later it’s at $138.  That is up $13.  If you owned Call options you are looking at a 50-300% return within a week.  Pretty good if you ask me!  No I wasn’t in them because I was already in a position and didn’t have as much money to invest because I was a smart person and paid off some of my mortgage first.  I can also note that anaylst are very bullish because RIMM has been beating earnings expectations and target prices have been raised to $160-175. 

Apple Computer (AAPL) stock price has been hit by negative news on iTunes music store song downloadsRumors are that growth is -65%, but anaylst think differently with CEO Steve Jobs that this data is incorrect.  The rumors is spread even more because AAPL is delaying its financial reports cleaning up it’s predated stock options scandal problem.  I feel AAPL just wants to clean up the stock options error and move on as soon as possible.  Anaylst say the low 80’s stock price now is a buying position opportunity and that iPod sales are key to solid earnings.  I really think many anaylst are forgetting computer sales growth with AAPL.  There has been a buying surge on their computer sales growth and computer users are switching now to Mac’s trying them out.  This could be mega huge for AAPL sales growth adding to iPod sales and music downloads.   I own AAPL and buying more into my position going into AAPL earnings Jan 17, 2006.

Also I still feel NUE Steel maker will be dropping harder and lower soon with its warnings for earnings.  Warnings is bad and there is also been out news that Steel makers will be receiving lower profits due to new laws on taxes and imports to help lower Auto Makers costs.  So sell stell and buy auto stocks?  Maybe.  Chart indicators show a reversal to go down also.  Now patience comes into play.  The stock has moved sideways straight across since warnings more then likey it will move to the $55 zone soon.

Lastly Garmin GPS Products (GRMN) having been a hit being built into new cars like GM and although earnings weren’t fantastic they did prove the company is still in its growth stage.  GRMN is getting much media attention to I might ad and their marketing has been effective on Tv ads through posters in boat shops and add-ons in cars and trucks.  I see big things.  They will be splitting their stock 2:1 on Dec 16 (tomorrow).  The stock has moved to my target I predicted and felt it would goto by Jan 07 which is $53-55 dollars.  It currently hit $55.  Another good stock or stock option play you would of made around 10% if you bought the stock and around 100% if you owned the options.  I feel when that price hits $25-28 after it splits stock brokers will be telling their clients to buy buy buy.  The stock isn’t any cheaper, the company hasn’t changed, and now you just own two instead of 1.  But for the new investor they are going to think they are getting a steal.  I see the price going past the $30’s in 2007 for an easy 10-20% gain if the GRMN is able to keep analyst happy and a possible surprise in earnings could really boost this stock back into the $50-80’s again. 

All stocks depend on the market and where it is going.  I’m even curious.  I have no idea.  The charts show the stock market looks to keep moving up.  I feel there is a breaking point for all stocks.  Stocks like GOOG and RIMM which I feel are really expensive may actually be cheap right now, but soon oh very soon I feel where I am going to become a million is when high rolling stocks drop and that drop is going to be the key to buying Puts and make the big money coming down.  Patience and having the funds at the right time is also important.  Right now the stock market, economic reports, and attitude is optimistic to keep moving.  So run with everyone else now but don’t take advice read and be insightful because it’s YOUR money on the line.

Cheers -P


Market moves down – Apple Computer (AAPL) and McDonald’s (MCD) stock reviews

About a week or more ago I predicted the market to move further down with profit takings and technical data indicators.  Although I played Calls on AAPL going up because so many upgrades and hype rumors helping boost its shares, Puts would of been the more profitable and the right choice.  I suppose finally the market gave AAPL a hang over and its down to $86.  I looked at the Daily year chart and AAPL is still riding up it’s trend line from July 2006 and it hasn’t broke yet.  Also the simple moving averages are still in line with the prive movement.  It still can move down before hitting the trend line breaking it.  Now I’m not saying it won’t move to $100.  I think it is very likely with increasing sales on everything it does (music downloading, iPods, and fresh improving computer sales) I’m just right now it looks down.  I’d wait to see a reversal pop up or big white candle buying sign saying “BUY ME HERE”.  Where?  I currently am in a loosing position and I should of sold out 4 days ago, duh!  But my personality and stock selling maturity appearantly still has not improved.  I’ve been breaking too many rules lately that I’ve been taught.  My oldest sister even tells me she can’t help me or do team work if I don’t follow the rules exactly as they are written.  What am I suppose to do being so dang risky!  I shoot big guns in the market and yes they shoot back even bigger and hit me harder!  A very good bullet proof vest would be wearing the rules on my chest.  If I am going to break the rules then I’m going to buy call/put options with tons of time value so I can breath easier through volatile price changes because -$1-3 pts on a stock is a big percentage change when owning a stock option.  I think not breaking the rules would be the right choice again.  The real question is how much money from my “could be big savings bank account” am I will to give up to trade in the stock market and receive a Harvard college price education?  For me my stock market education is everything, but I’m starting to think I should be doing more “homework practice plays with no money” then trading all my real hard earned money. 

I’ve currently decided to buy McDonald’s MCD at the $43 stock price for June 2007 55 CALLS @ .10.  My order hasn’t been processed yet so it might not be sold to me but I shall wait or buy more @ $.15 later if the stock keeps its price.  McDonalds has been doing very keeping their stores clean, modernizing them, offering healthier foods, keeping an excellent $1 menu, and increasing same-store sales with positive earnings news and upgrades on the corporate company.  It also has a strong upward trend since July 2003.  I can also note MCD has been pretty flat since October 2006 and only recently popped in December 2006 on upgrades and same-stores sales increasing.

Although MCD is a fast-food giant and probably not the healthiest for burgers still customers love its food, prices, and fast service.

I will also note about myself that I am now presently underway crusing in the Pacific ocean with my USCG cutter for around 3 months.  My internet is slow, but I will still update my blog, networthiq, and current trade holdings.  I am still optimistic on making 1 solid 100% trade a month to reach my goal of $100k to $1 Million.  I just need to learn how to stop trading after I reach my monthly goal so I don’t loose any money I make in profits.  I find getting into stocks options are easy.  The hard part is selling off the greed taking some profit and getting out quicker.

I will be doing more practice trades during this time since I can not trade on the boat due to the new hours I work and slow connection.  If I can add new funds to my portfolio I will to save money out of my pay check.  I’m hoping to save $5,000 out of my pay checks by March 2007.  I think it would be best to put towards paying off my car.  Best*

I will also be looking for a new place to live.  I hope I find a perfect match in my budget to keep saving money on housing costs to put it towards my stock market education and goals.

-P


Positive Non-Farm employment reports – AAPL, RIMM, SHLD, FXI, JMBA

 (Technically charts are below)

Non-Farm Payroll economic employment reports showed that the economy is still alive and the word used in the market today “robust heading into the holiday season”.  This was postive news to investors to keep buying.  Today it said stocks were overbought I feel they have been oversold.  On the charts RIMM, AAPL, SHLD, FXI, and JMBA all show for this weeky a slowly heading downwards trend line even with some positives today.  AAPL and JMBA were the only ones that closed at a positive stock price.  But my AAPL option trade is in for its death if investors are really selling off AAPL just because the rumor is now Apple Computers iPhone might be delayed.  I am hoping not.  I want Apple to show it off (if they actually are going to have one) at the Mac World conference in Jan 2007 before their earnings.  I see people buying Apple computers left and right.  Even my mother asked me if she should get one!  I said most definitely!  I have one myself and it’s easy to use, doesn’t crash, and more unique then a PC.  Although AAPL took a hit in its Daily trend up lately going from $93 to $87 I’m not worried.  Instinctively AAPL should hit a support price around $85 and keep treading higher

Since many people are bearish on Jamba Juice I am going to follow the stock, its reports, and its movement.  Maybe the company won’t grow and only Hawaiian health freaks like the products.  I haven’t really been in the mainland living for almost a year now.  If I’m right this stock should grow 100-300% within the next few years creating mega profiting on leap year options and holding the common stock.

There wasn’t much other news in the stock market today.  Friday for most stocks closed positive from bullish employment report investors were hesitant to hear and now that they have heard it the market should keep moving in the optimistic direction.  We should see some buying next week with the Bulls.

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Jamba Juice Inc. the next Starbucks –

I feel Jamba Juice is the next Starbucks trendy type company that is focused on selling a specific products happy consumers love to spend their money on.  Here in Honolulu, Hi there at least 10 Jamba Juices I know of on every major corner or strategically placed right next to a Starbucks in shopping centers.  I commented this on WallStrip.com’s blog about Jamba Juice.  They say its a joke and going to go under I say the complete opposite.  They need to take a vacation to Hawaii to understand why I say this.  I’m in the military and we people in the military buy 6-10 large Jamba Juice smoothes a day.  Well, I don’t because I dont’ like to spend money, but all my buddies and workers love to buy up Jamba Juice smoothies.  Jamba Juice has a quality product, it’s trendy, fun, and “cool”.  I call that a recipe for success.  Jamba Juice is the smoothie of choice here in Hawaii.  Even in my local city of Virginia Beach, VA there are Jamba Juices in all the major strip malls.  I read the financials on the company and it said profit dropped.  You know even Starbucks has hit hard times and hasn’t always profited.  Jamba Juice is still in the start up faze.  I read on their company website they only have like 562 company and franchised stores.  That is nothing when you compare it to giant Starbucks.  I feel there is plenty of growth for Jamba JuiceTheir stock is trading around $10 a shareCHEAP!   Though even I feel it could go lower before it rockets off.  I feel they need to build their store base more.  But would I buy it right now?  Hell yes!  I wish they had leap year options on it.  I’d buy call options 2-3 years a head.  I feel this stock is seriously going to $30 by 2008 building more stores and placing them next to Starbucks so the consumer traffic is already there.  As for now I’d see if the company performs better and starts to profit and increase stores.  If leap options become available I’ d like to add them to my portfolio.  Clearly as shown below the stock has been sold off hard around 20%.  With some solid positive news it could really turn the price to the upside once investors start to recognize the real value of the small company.

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Wallstrip.com I like it, but its just a lot of talk.

Lately I found  WallStrip.com off www.CNN.com I think for random finance blogging.  The site has great interesting videos daily about the stock market and companies.  In that respect it is fun and cool.  I find it is like the next Jim Cramer’s Mad Money or simular Fast Money.  It seems everybody is trying to be the next cool trendy stock picker show.  How about show your own picks, your own portfolio, goals, and how good you really are so people know they aren’t wasting their time watching your little Blog Tv skit about Wall Street.  I’m not saying WallStrip.com isn’t amusing or isn’t helpful to other finance bloggers and people investing in the markets I’m just saying I like to see evidence.  I like MyOpenWallet but I don’t even feel its that open.  The young New Yorker female blogs about random consumer buying and saving, but really nothing about stocks.  Blogging about stocks isn’t very popular and cool.  I think it is.  I do search for blogs that show a diary of trades and just blogs information on their stocks.  I have found Trader Mike’s somewhat good and recently a newer blogger MillionDollarCountDown’s blog rather informative on his trades which is rare.  Think about it no bad trader wants the public to know they make bad trades!  I promised myself I would show all the real trades I do profitable and not profitable so if their is a person that wants to read my blog they are receiving valuable information for their time.  I say valuable because they might pick up also why I gained or lost money and it might help while trading the same stock or something else simular.  I am not a stock expert, guru, or wall street advice blog.  All my blog is a record of my trades and random small funny entries to keep my blog from drying up because finances and the stock market can make you fall asleep.  If I can get wordpress to allow javascript I think I will add Wallstrip.com daily video to my blog because I’d allow some humorous wall street news with my technical chart anaylsis and journaled trades.  I’d say a bonus for any readers that start to fall asleep looking at too many tickers and numbers…I’m pretty multi-talented.  I might come out with my own wall street video blog, but I have to admit Lindsey has her thing down.  It has all the components of a solid production something I can’t compete with right now.  So why compete when I can share her great journalism for free?


DJIA & NASDAQ will follow uptrend into Jan 2007

I’ve made up my mind.   The past few trading days the market has continued to move up with more positive merger news.   I feel the stock market will move higher finally hitting that DJIA $13,000 mark the Bulls really want to see.  On merger monday Bank of NY buys financial securities giant Mellon Financial off weighing Pfizer’s bad news of it’s drug halt the market still optimistically continued up.  Both bank stocks moved higher.  As for Pfizer’s drop of 12% I do not think that will last for long.  The stock price could continue to move a bit further down, but Pfizer is also a giant and a drug profit machine.  With new Democrat house in control new regulations and laws pharma companies could be in for a problem.  Republicans have been really creating corporate profit machines with the right tax laws helping out Mr. Big Corporate America.  I see PFE moving from $24.90 regaining its price of $27-30 within the year depending on if Pfizer comes out with another wonder drug or patients start staying alive instead of dieing!

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MTV’s Beauty and the Geek, more interesting then the stock market today.

Hi.  I was watching some older episodes actually the first episode of Beauty and the Geek by MTV.  I like the show.  I guess in the end the dumb beauties learn some stuff and fall in love with the Geeks because they are simple and would do anything to make them happy – what geek wouldn’t for a chance with a hot babe?  The show is basically hot dumb babes with extremely talented smart geeky guys.  I can relate with these multi-talented badly dressed sexually unappealing geeks, although I think I’m just critisized as creepy or weird.  I actually enjoy the shows because these guys seems so authentic and real.  They could be actors, but they have all the elements of very hopeless romantic nerdy guys.  As quoted in the show by a beautiful women “It’s like its the revenge of the nerds movie”.   She is right.  I do not have cable or MTV.  I was watching it on the ship where we do have VH1 and MTV.  I don’t watch much Tv because I’m more of a movie guy or really great sitcom show if there is one on.  I use to watch repeats of Seinfield and of course yes Friends.  Who doesn’t?  A lot of people are into Family Guy, but I really never got the show.  I suppose I’m too geeky to get it.  I’m not much of a dude’s dude.  I don’t talk shit about women behind their backs.  If a person feels I did talk shit then if I am wrong I’ll respectfully admit it and keep my integrity.   I probably compliment beautiful women more then I should when I don’t receive any compliments back.   I guess I can’t expect it, but a surprising nice comment does works for a geeks confidence level.

I hope these nerdy geeky guys do learn something or did since the show is over I think.  I have hope in them that possibly they might make it to second base within the next 5 years instead of 10 when women will just want them for their millions they are worth in the long term.

As for a short brief on stocksThe DJIA and NAS barely moved and NYX and MA moved around 3% gaining back points slighty showing and uptrend although I still feel I have not confirmed where the market will go.  I still feel down in Dec 2006The billionaire Kerkorian sold out his 10% stake in GMI think he’s smart.  GM wasn’t really looking into the future.  I think a conglomerate mix of Nissan and Renault motors would made a stronger corporate company instead of cutting jobs they should be increasing growth making more efficient safe cheap cars.  There is so much technology out there theses days like hydrogen fueled powered carsThese cars have already been tested and have a proven system.  Once the first major car builder player comes and starts it they will own the monopoly somewhat like how Apple has created a classy smooth looking iPod music player that no one can compete with the world is in love with it.  A car maker these days has to do just that.  To have the monopoly they need really efficient MPG, clean engine, roomy, and a very young likeable carI love my 2005 Honda Element EX with all its newer features and smooth ride, but I would dig Honda a lot more if they came out with a hydrogen powered one that got 100-200% better gas mileage.  I am currently getting around 20 MPG city and 23 highway.  Its a bigger 4CYL but I was expecting better MPG then that.  I love the entire room space.   It has so much space bigger then any SUV in its class.

Well later. 


Sold out of FXI up 20% today. Market still looks to move downward.

Sold out of my FXI position at $1.35.  I bought two more contracts yesterday at $.45 averaging my option price to $1.08 profiting myself today up 20%.  I saw it start to move down and the Nasdaq was dropping faster so I thought the right decision since I didn’t know if this was a slight correction or a continuing downward trend was to sell and see what happens tomorrow.  If stocks will move higher they will open higher and continue to trade higher tomorrow.  If they open lower then they will go lower at least from my chart anaylsis. 

I was pretty convinced FXI would move back up, but I was fortunate that the Bulls stepped in buying at low 3% off prices and made stocks trade higher today.  I’m actually happy with my 20% even though it has probably been the smallest return in months, although its a positive return!  Not a negative or $0 worth nothing option and remember this was a Dec 06 option!  Meaning if the market continuing to go down my option would of been worthless day by day to finally $0.  Thank you God, although I know you don’t move the market, but I am thankful for bigger players buying in.


Miserably happy today – Right about the direction of the market wrong about my trade.

Well lets start off by saying I was wrong on my trade for FXI Dec 06 96 Calls.  I was right about the market following down opening either high or low.  It opened lower but much lower then expected and stocks did move higher throughout the day with the DJIA and NASDAQ.  But I was wrong because it didn’t pop later to find out that the Chinese Yen fell creating also a sell off in Chinese stocks helping ETF index fund FXI drop sharper.  It did move up the rest of the day but it totally made my day suck.  I don’t like being wrong but I can except it.  I know now not to make this type of trade again.  I’m stuck in the position because it’s basically at a totally loss.  My 100% compound interest trade did not work so I am basically at a 100% loss.  =-(  Now if I was smart I would of went with an easier trade yesterday, Apple.  You see when the entire market tanked AAPL was up $1 and I knew knew knew that it would change negative once the stock investors hit a reality check.  Thirty minutes later I re-checked the stock qoute and it was $.16 then -$.80 then finally -$2.00!!!  My intuition to buy PUTS on it would of been the CORRECT thing to do and I would off been up 100% in my trade in 1 day.    Now I’m the opposite. 

When I woke up this morning at 4:30 AM to see how the market opened I only got two hours of sleep the night before because I took this huge nap early in the day.  I couldn’t wait to see my position up so I could close it out.  When I saw FXI @ -$3.00 I wanted to puke.  I was so wrong and it was taking forever to move up in the day.  It didn’t move like AAPL down $1 then up +$1 by the end of the day.  So since I was up early I left to get some grub around 5:30 AM at Jack In the Box fastfood joint.  Before I arrived I killed a smoke in my car getting a high trying to ease my mind about my bad trade.  I haven’t smoked a cigarrette in two days.  I finally arrived 5 minutes later.  I got my favorite Meaty Egg Burrito combo with a big hashbrown and coffee.  It tastes yummy and totally delicious.  I was happy for like 10 minutes eating my food inside the store.  I love eating early in the morning before I do work or when I am traveling it gives me a sense of fun as I felt as a kidDrinking coffee is also fun and makes me feel like this early morning adult worker.  I end up going to work and boxing out at the gym early morning as soon as I get to work.  My stomache wasn’t too happy about excercising.  I check my stock quote again through out the day and see it moving up but not into the positive when I thought it would go.  Disappointed I am today so miserably happy, seriously, in myself. 

If I was you I wouldn’t even read this financial stock options trading blog.  I hope you are learning something, but I’m loosing money and that isn’t very good trading for you to be interested in.  Hahaha.  Don’t worry I’m not done yet.  I have 3 more years to correct my mistakes, if I can and do, and finally meet my goal of $1 million dollars.


Nasdaq QQQQ Index Drops with Wal-Marts rare sales decline creating concerns for worried investors.

Although the QQQQ Index is hitting all time highs and has a strong uptrend with 5 small bullish rally peaks I believe todays sell on the market was a warning to take profits off the table if you own stock.  I feel QQQQ’s will pop higher next morning Nov 28th then continue to sell lower breaking a major trend up.  My reasons are selling off in Dec 06 to extract money for taxe purposes.  Also a long run up and selling at highs.  I’d buy back into QQQQ after it bottoms out and it starts to have a bullish rally again in 2007.  I’m going to be buying PUT positions on this QQQQ index as soon as the market and charts show I am correct. 

Wal-marts rare sales decline for Nov 06 created a negative push on the market today to make investors with big profits to sell taking them off the table with mixed news on sales.  Investors are worried about consumer spending and retail stocks now.  I expect the market to either open lower go high then down or open real high and keep following downward tomorrow.  If you read the articles it pushes towards “healthy profit taking” which is what I think with a push from Wal-Marts sales reports created a selling effect on the stock market to really sell off hard like it did.

I was also right about the FXI China Index PUTS.   I bought CALLS on them today to pop higher and sell out immediately for a friendly profit.  I don’t see FXI following a U.S. market downtrend because they are China market related and move slowly with China and are slightly effected, but effected as seen today with the 1-3% drop on stocks.

 Now the market could open lower tomorrow, but I feel that’s highly unlikely because of such a big percentage mark sold off today making buyers scream buy tomorrow then sell real fast for a profit.  So if the market down pop higher then start to go down you could still get into PUT positions on most stocks.

QQQQ Index strong bull trend with first large red candle signaling a reversal in a reversal selling month:

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