shld

Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.


FXI Puts – $990 even though technical indicators showed otherwise, + SHLD Nov 130 Calls

This morning I knew the market was going to pop from Fridays sell off. AAPL was up going into earnings currently at $174. My prediction is that it will sell off after hours if it repeats itself from many other earnings and then will continue to move up. FXI has been popping out of the bollinger bands and has fallen the past 3 days. I guess Friday was the better day to play puts and I would of been out profitably. Although it will close under the down trend I sold out of my position because FXI was changing direction I lost -$990. I’ve been wrong before about FXI. Right when I think there will be a major Asian market correction from peaking so high it falls a little then just spikes up higher so I’m not going to play my odds just incase it does pop open tomorrow and follow its big uptrend. I’d rather lose $1000 then $5000. As for SHLD it has been getting good exposure and all of retail stocks today broken about a 15 day down trend with a big white candle. If retail holds ground I can see SHLD easily hitting $140. I’m currently up $350 in my Nov 130 Calls. I now have to regain back the -$990 I lost at the same time. I’m slowly gaining the discipline to sell out even if tomorrow FXI drops and I was correct about the new direction of the trend. Today looked like a very good entry point on both. My first mistake was doing two trades at the same time. I kept telling myself missed money is better then risked money, but of course I still traded.

I was going to do a Put trade on AAPL earnings because even when they are great the stock falls. But instead of possibly losing more money I thought it would be a wiser decision to buy AAPL options after earnings. If AAPL does fall 3-5% lower then buy it at that entry point if earnings are good.

I’m really trying to do as many practice trades as possible, 10-20 for every real trade. I just need to only trade the stocks I practice and it should keep me in check. I really want to pay off some items to clean up some good and bad debt. One being my car which is a $20k trade, my mobile home park loan $80k, and my student loan $40k that helped me buy the real estate.

Did I also mention I need $13k to buy these two new trailers to rent in my park and possible 3/1 home for $13k? This stuff adds up!