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AAPL, GOOG, & PCLN continue fall from peak after subtle expected pop.

So in my two earlier posts I first analyzed and came to a long waited gut conclusion with these weekly faster and bigger moves that the top peaks of a few fat stocks looked like they were ready to sell off. Particularly Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Priceline (PCLN). I predicted a pop after the quick fall on Monday for all three stocks to having a buying opportunity especially on AAPL Tuesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday the stocks popped up. Then I planned on Thursday into Friday, if I was correct about the possible new downtrend starting to begin, to show after the initial quick trade on Tuesday. Today, all three stocks got hammered except GOOG.

However, with GOOG I find an exception because it hasn’t moved back up as quickly like AAPL and PCLN. GOOG seems like it is a turtle slowly going down a hill whereas AAPL and PCLN are like college frat kids jumping off into deep blue lagoon abysses. 

After Wednesday I initially thought GOOG out of the three would have been the best practice trade to follow in and trade on real money, but after two seeing all three continue to fall I’d say it’s safe that all three are in for a short-term stock price correction.

Now on Friday even the MSFT did well in earnings I don’t think it’s going to affect my stocks. All three stocks will likely fall another 10 points into next monday.

Currently here are the 3 practice put options I have in play:
(bought on close of the 16th – the better trade would have been the close on the 18th)

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 / currently at $16.55

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 / currently at $19.50 (still likely the weakest and best put play)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 / currently at $12.17

And I’m going to add an QQQ NASDAQ index put option due to how heavily these 3 stocks can weight on the QQQ index because it is ALSO at it’s peak high which has been squatting at the price of $65-67.

Buy QQQ 66 MAY PUT @ $1.42 (close of 4/19/12). QQQ’s are slow but likely the least amount risk out of these 3 larger options as seen just by the movement of the options except for Google because it hasn’t moved much only slowly falling. However, if GOOG continues to drift downwards it could have a sudden couple of big falls.


Market Journal Update – AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, QQQ / Personal Projects

Market hit 13,000. Mr. Market’s emotions seem generally mixed to highly optimistic even though we are historically in the “earnings warnings zone”. Any CALL option trade I would of made long in January would of been at least 10-20% in profitability. The January Barometer has kept Mr. Market’s enthusiasm as it is referenced in articles regularly.

AAPL @ $520 – Fall near? Problems with copyrights over iPad in China. How much will it cost Apple on its next earnings? Is it too big to fail? The higher it moves the more volatile it will fall with bad news.
GOOG @ $605 – I think GOOG will hit $700 this year. The iPhone’s are still a hit but the TV marketing campaigns for the DROID and newer smart phones duplicate the iPhone and offer more options than the iPhone plus Droid is dominant in the mobile market.
NFLX @ $120 – Netflix entered the United Kingdom market. I think it’s going to bring a few more billion to their cashflow due to that their are no competitors currently in the UK besides LoveFilm owned by Amazon but doesn’t have the large library like NFLX.
NFLX moved with its Jan. 12′ earnings up 20%. I think it hasn’t moved for almost 2 weeks because it’s just taking a breather. If it grows and expands its business model of streaming/dvd’s into Europe it could be a hot stock again like Apple.
QQQ @ $64 – The QQQ’s have followed all 3 of these big boy Nasdaq stocks. At $64 it’s high as an index stock. This index use to not even move past $44 only until just a few years ago. This is the high, however, if the market continues to go up especially with
AAPL and GOOG move another 50pts with the general market following the QQQ could see new all time highs, however I’m pessimistic and think the QQQ’s will be sold off some lower than $60 within 1-2 months.

On a personal note I’ve been having dreams about prospering and success with bee’s, fish, and snakes. Also my film projects have been slow to come about. I hope to soon start getting my market commentary up in animated form through The Secret Corporation project. Scotland life has improved, some. I still consider the stock market my first home and one day full-time income and everything else I do just a hobby for fun and to share freely with others. However, until I’m able to have complete discipline and earn more than I lose I’ll have to settle for delivering pizzas and freelance work.