predictions on stocks

My 7 day put option trades up 35% – AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, QQQ

Apple reported earnings today so I would have been closed out before any earnings reports. If I would have sold yesterday % profits would have been higher or the low of today. By far I entered the QQQ’s a bit later into the downtrend (2 days later) after a slight higher move on the market waiting for the next fall. It proved to be the best and also the most affordable play. An average person could of bought 10 contracts for $1,420 dollars in a super small account and earned a 25% return within a few days. $500 a week is more than I earn now. LOL. I don’t know if I’ll ever trade again. My subconscious dreams are even telling me I have no basic control over my life. You never have control over the stock market. You only hold the trigger to buy or sell and hopefully Lady Luck is on your side. I earned around 35% total on these 4 plays. It could of been much higher if I had waited (waited!) for the pop on Apple I intuitively knew would happen after it’s first hard fall. I would of been over 100% for the 7 days. See below.

Here are the close on my 4 put option trades:
AAPL 555 MAY PUT Bought @ $20.44 / Close Sold @ $22.29
GOOG 610 MAY PUT Bought @ $19.40 / Close Sold @ $19.10
PCLN 655 MAY PUT Bought @ $20.50 / Close Sold @ $20.70
QQQ 66 MAY PUT Bought @ $1.42 / Close Sold @ $1.93

Now that Apple had positive results and the entire market has followed its lead I would switch directions and start playing options for the next few days. However, I wouldn’t be so confident to see it continually going up even though it had a 10% pull back. Any bad news could send Apple’s stock quickly down.


AAPL, GOOG, & PCLN continue fall from peak after subtle expected pop.

So in my two earlier posts I first analyzed and came to a long waited gut conclusion with these weekly faster and bigger moves that the top peaks of a few fat stocks looked like they were ready to sell off. Particularly Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Priceline (PCLN). I predicted a pop after the quick fall on Monday for all three stocks to having a buying opportunity especially on AAPL Tuesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday the stocks popped up. Then I planned on Thursday into Friday, if I was correct about the possible new downtrend starting to begin, to show after the initial quick trade on Tuesday. Today, all three stocks got hammered except GOOG.

However, with GOOG I find an exception because it hasn’t moved back up as quickly like AAPL and PCLN. GOOG seems like it is a turtle slowly going down a hill whereas AAPL and PCLN are like college frat kids jumping off into deep blue lagoon abysses. 

After Wednesday I initially thought GOOG out of the three would have been the best practice trade to follow in and trade on real money, but after two seeing all three continue to fall I’d say it’s safe that all three are in for a short-term stock price correction.

Now on Friday even the MSFT did well in earnings I don’t think it’s going to affect my stocks. All three stocks will likely fall another 10 points into next monday.

Currently here are the 3 practice put options I have in play:
(bought on close of the 16th – the better trade would have been the close on the 18th)

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 / currently at $16.55

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 / currently at $19.50 (still likely the weakest and best put play)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 / currently at $12.17

And I’m going to add an QQQ NASDAQ index put option due to how heavily these 3 stocks can weight on the QQQ index because it is ALSO at it’s peak high which has been squatting at the price of $65-67.

Buy QQQ 66 MAY PUT @ $1.42 (close of 4/19/12). QQQ’s are slow but likely the least amount risk out of these 3 larger options as seen just by the movement of the options except for Google because it hasn’t moved much only slowly falling. However, if GOOG continues to drift downwards it could have a sudden couple of big falls.


Fantasy Portfolio update / BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on – AAPL, GOOG, PCLN

It’s too bad Yahoo! Fantasy Finance doesn’t let you short or trade options on stocks in your portfolio. I’m currently up 14%. Nothing to brag about compared to leaders supposedly with up to 150% gains in the past 30 days. I don’t know how they are doing it but I can only assume they are trading penny stocks or stocks only under $2.

See shot:

Some BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on which I think at the moment are definite risk/reward worthy are put option trades on AAPL, GOOG, and PCLN. They have been trending down for the week 5-20% off their highs. I’ve been waiting and waiting for some big institutional sellers/investors to start taking some profits and selling. I believe this is finally happening as stock analysts re-think Apple. I think it’s run up with Google and Priceline are currently in a stock value correction. The company’s have moved up so quickly a stock correction was bound to happen. Now I’d trade my life on a definite ongoing correction probably another 10%. However, from experience, this could also be a quick buying/selling opportunity. Whenever a high talked about stock like Apple falls 20 points as it did today then next morning it can have a volatile swing upwards confusing any type of trader. So a correct entry point is crucial and very short-term trading profits are important – meaning if I was going to trade puts on any of these companies once I’m up 50-100% in a day on a contract it would be smartest to get out and just get in/out when the timing looks right on technical charts and watch how investors are reacting/how news is changing.

Even with the stocks hit hard today I can bet they will actually be positive tomorrow.
However I feel a put trade over 1 month will have definite positive results. Since I have no money in my account. I will trade as if I only have $2000 for each option. (A total of a $6000 account).

Here are my 3 BIG OPTION PRACTICE PLAYS on AAPL, GOOG, PCLN.
Bought end of close 4/16/12

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 (This is the closest to in-the-money I can buy – although way out of the money with only having $2k towards trade however this option is moving fast with big swings).

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 (Surprisingly, GOOG is higher and I can buy in-the-money puts for $2k)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 (Closer to AAPL’s option pricing – out-of-the money with $2k trade)

Very short-term such as the next 1-2 days I expect the stocks to pop up, however if I’m right on trending and more importantly – FEAR of losing money for many holders – the stocks should continue a down trend and the more that sell the sharper the decline until a big guy steps in and stops it buying back changing direction – a new market correction. So check back in a week for a post update on this practice trade.


Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.


new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)

I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.

charts updated: (put curser over chart picture and it will give name of stock)
aapl, atvi, rimm, goog, bidu, fxi, dks, hans, hoku, rig, swn, inp, ttm, ma, c, and more.