fslr

wow the market is moving – reversal candles, crammer’s big mouth is right

I haven’t even looked at my charts for almost a month now and I can already visualize in my mind what is happening. First I can see one big bullish candle down and a second big bullish candle parallel to the down candle. This creates a tunnel/sandwhich like effect that for the most part is rare and shows a change in buying/selling.

More surprisingly HOKU under $8 has not been moving at all and just has fell instead of move like big stocks FSLR which currently just swings up and down 10-20 pts a day it seems like. I’m going to have to make one big journal entry about all these big moves and economic policy decisions going on plus what happens to Bear Sterns (BSC). Wow. I would have never of thought that company would of feel to just $3 and get bought out by JPM for only $200 million dollars. Any billionaire status entrepreneur right now can almost buy a mega company cheap that is in trouble. I’m surprised Bill Gates with Microsoft isn’t buying everything up to dominate and monopolize on the market place.

AAPL through all of these hard moves has actually been pretty supportive in the 120’s so this just might becomes its 52 week low for the following year and finally move past $200 for good unless a stocksplit happens by Steve Jobs by surprise.

I’m seeing huge moves happen daily during one of the most hardest times to trade. I have to admit its very lucrative in daily plays, but would be very dangerous staying in a trade no longer then 1 day right now due to the extremely swingy choppy markets. I don’t think our market has hit the bottom that fast. Home sellers are still having problems selling their homes and consumers are still resisting buying and starting to talk again about how risky the market is to buy stocks. This is not bullish talk in my opinion from people who create the profits to drive stocks up.

Living on the boat has been swell. I’m about out of money to fix the boat. Other boat owners have suggested just living in it and doing nothing to it. I’d really like to sail it and go on trips, but it needs a LOT of work to be seaworthy. So I guess I’ll see how far I get with what I can pay for and do to the boat.


First Solar (FSLR @ $175) falls going into earnings

So since FSLR fell going into earnings a whopping -14 pts closing just above yesterdays big white candle move up +16 pts. I suspect bad earnings to happen since investors seemed to panicly sell out of the stock before earnings release at 8am before the market open tomorrow. All solar sector stocks dropped heavily today, so it may not just be First Solar, but investors aren’t buying into earnings which are supposedly to be a “surprise”. Think about it though, if analyst say there might be a surprise is it really a surprise anymore? If someone tells you are going to have a “surprise” birthday party it isn’t much of a surprise once it actually happens….hmmm this could be painful tomorrow waking up to see what happens after the release….very painful since my contract is currently at $3.50. It moved up to $10 today but my GTC order was at $13. Shit.


First $1000 trade – First Solar FSLR @ $196.58 – 1 Contract of FEB 210 CALL @ $10




fslr_233_feb-4-08

Originally uploaded by financeninja

First $1000 trade

FSLR @ $196.58 – 1 Contract of FEB 210 CALL @ $10 ($1000 plus commission). This looks like the highest probability trade so far.
Notes listed on chart. All of my charts are going up and pushing through BB’s lines building momentum into Feb 13th financial results to be shown. My GTC is up 100% @ $20 or ($2000 sale).
I expect FSLR to move around 20 points in 1 week average 5 pt move a day. My option would have to move around 12 pts to sell me out.

Now I would of liked to wait a little bit longer to get into the trade, but I waited till after all the wild trades were done and entered the trade at 11:11 A.M. EST so I’d make the first move was done to see where it would keep going. I expect it to move past 210 by Friday Feb. 8th and be sold out at $20.

Exact trade details:
Symbol: .HJQBB
Description: FSLR FEB 210 Call
Stock: FSLR at 196.58
Action: Bought To Open
Quantity: 1 contract(s)
Price: $10.00
Commission: $14.95
Reg Fees: $0.00
Net Amt: $1,014.95


Apple Inc. (AAPL) @ $155 falls -10% after hours to $137 on earnings, my reasoning on AAPL

Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.

This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:

“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”

“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer

One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.

Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)

Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).

I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).

But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…

Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings