big swings in the market

Fantasy Portfolio update / BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on – AAPL, GOOG, PCLN

It’s too bad Yahoo! Fantasy Finance doesn’t let you short or trade options on stocks in your portfolio. I’m currently up 14%. Nothing to brag about compared to leaders supposedly with up to 150% gains in the past 30 days. I don’t know how they are doing it but I can only assume they are trading penny stocks or stocks only under $2.

See shot:

Some BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on which I think at the moment are definite risk/reward worthy are put option trades on AAPL, GOOG, and PCLN. They have been trending down for the week 5-20% off their highs. I’ve been waiting and waiting for some big institutional sellers/investors to start taking some profits and selling. I believe this is finally happening as stock analysts re-think Apple. I think it’s run up with Google and Priceline are currently in a stock value correction. The company’s have moved up so quickly a stock correction was bound to happen. Now I’d trade my life on a definite ongoing correction probably another 10%. However, from experience, this could also be a quick buying/selling opportunity. Whenever a high talked about stock like Apple falls 20 points as it did today then next morning it can have a volatile swing upwards confusing any type of trader. So a correct entry point is crucial and very short-term trading profits are important – meaning if I was going to trade puts on any of these companies once I’m up 50-100% in a day on a contract it would be smartest to get out and just get in/out when the timing looks right on technical charts and watch how investors are reacting/how news is changing.

Even with the stocks hit hard today I can bet they will actually be positive tomorrow.
However I feel a put trade over 1 month will have definite positive results. Since I have no money in my account. I will trade as if I only have $2000 for each option. (A total of a $6000 account).

Here are my 3 BIG OPTION PRACTICE PLAYS on AAPL, GOOG, PCLN.
Bought end of close 4/16/12

AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 (This is the closest to in-the-money I can buy – although way out of the money with only having $2k towards trade however this option is moving fast with big swings).

GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 (Surprisingly, GOOG is higher and I can buy in-the-money puts for $2k)

PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 (Closer to AAPL’s option pricing – out-of-the money with $2k trade)

Very short-term such as the next 1-2 days I expect the stocks to pop up, however if I’m right on trending and more importantly – FEAR of losing money for many holders – the stocks should continue a down trend and the more that sell the sharper the decline until a big guy steps in and stops it buying back changing direction – a new market correction. So check back in a week for a post update on this practice trade.


Updates on AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, SBUX + I went to go buy socks in Old Navy and ended up buying my entire summer outfits…I know, lame. I’m hooked on Old Navy retail stores and growth in it’s stock

First updates on my practice trades for AAPL, GOOG, and SBUX.
AAPL is doing what I expect today it hit a high of $231 and ended at $226.
GOOG’s big buying support wick from yesterday showed continued strength into it’s second day making the stock hit around $572. So it definitely wasn’t a false signal and GOOG will likely move up into a 3rd straight day even though from my experience most Fridays stocks kind of sag.
BIDU’s big selling wick on the 233 chart showed up again today closer near the top and BIDU when from $608 to $584 at one point a 20 point move down. Short term selling is happening.
SBUX charts show downward movement and went down again as predicted to around $24 which would have been a realistic 10-25% profit on a put option play.

Now the fun stuff, shopping. So good news today I finally got PAID! My Gi Bill money benefits are coming in and now I can pay all my debtors. Yeah! On my way to my Wachovia (WA) bank (only a few in NYC) I passed a hidden huge Old Navy (GPS) store in a building. Everything in NYC is just kind of fit into a building hidden away.
Since I couldn’t do laundry for almost 2 weeks I had no socks and was dying for a pair. I go in JUST TO GET SOCKS and then behold “the clearance” section! Well I bought some summer sports collared t-shirts (made for tennis/soccer/golf) but all look professional so I can stay cool and nerdy. Then I got two pairs of shorts and a hat. Cha-ching $149 dollars later I leave the store thanks to Visa (V).

Old Navy is owned by the Gap Inc (GPS @ $24). This store runs like a McDonalds (MCD) version of retail. Quite amazing, clean, friendly, and affordable. This is definitely a great company I really don’t hear about in the news although they own many retail establishments with over 3000 retail stores. The stock just recently double up 100% after the 52 week low of the general market. It has a low P/E of 12. It also has a PEG of 1.24 so this would be in the definition of a Warren Buffett stock to own I’d think. I’d say the store is definitely still growing too. The store concept and beginnings I believe are less than 10 years old but have gained quite the popularity among the 15-30 age group that spend money. When in the store it was packed with twenty-something trendy females crazy about the clothes. Sadly, some young child in Indonesia (as stated on clothes tags) are probably being forced and badly abused in the Gap Inc. underpaid working camps where long hours and abusement run rapid. It’s a sick sad world, but I can’t let these clothes go unloved and to waste right?

-pm


wow the market is moving – reversal candles, crammer’s big mouth is right

I haven’t even looked at my charts for almost a month now and I can already visualize in my mind what is happening. First I can see one big bullish candle down and a second big bullish candle parallel to the down candle. This creates a tunnel/sandwhich like effect that for the most part is rare and shows a change in buying/selling.

More surprisingly HOKU under $8 has not been moving at all and just has fell instead of move like big stocks FSLR which currently just swings up and down 10-20 pts a day it seems like. I’m going to have to make one big journal entry about all these big moves and economic policy decisions going on plus what happens to Bear Sterns (BSC). Wow. I would have never of thought that company would of feel to just $3 and get bought out by JPM for only $200 million dollars. Any billionaire status entrepreneur right now can almost buy a mega company cheap that is in trouble. I’m surprised Bill Gates with Microsoft isn’t buying everything up to dominate and monopolize on the market place.

AAPL through all of these hard moves has actually been pretty supportive in the 120’s so this just might becomes its 52 week low for the following year and finally move past $200 for good unless a stocksplit happens by Steve Jobs by surprise.

I’m seeing huge moves happen daily during one of the most hardest times to trade. I have to admit its very lucrative in daily plays, but would be very dangerous staying in a trade no longer then 1 day right now due to the extremely swingy choppy markets. I don’t think our market has hit the bottom that fast. Home sellers are still having problems selling their homes and consumers are still resisting buying and starting to talk again about how risky the market is to buy stocks. This is not bullish talk in my opinion from people who create the profits to drive stocks up.

Living on the boat has been swell. I’m about out of money to fix the boat. Other boat owners have suggested just living in it and doing nothing to it. I’d really like to sail it and go on trips, but it needs a LOT of work to be seaworthy. So I guess I’ll see how far I get with what I can pay for and do to the boat.