asia crash

November 2007 – an exception to a bullish year – market crashing

Well, my sister is right for once. She is very right indeed. I’ve read a lot of books and well wasn’t really watching ALL the charts just the my industry charts on tech. I have an icky feeling that we will see Apple (AAPL @ $172) and Research In Motion (RIMM @ $112) fall to august 2007 lows again. So AAPL could go as low as $120’s. This is scary but true. All of my Qcharts are flipping over on the big charts (weekly and daily). Next week we may see a little run, but 2007 is going to be an exception then that means stocks should fall even hard through the fall months. Everything is in play credit problems, real estate sales dropping, oil rising, the dollar weakening, oh and yeah all stock charts showing a bust. I probably should of been playing closer attention to the big dogs Dow Jones and Nasdaq + futures. Sometimes it just really sucks working a lot because you don’t give yourself fully to what could cost you a lot of money, which it has. I was playing Microsoft (MSFT @ 34.40) and AAPL @ 172 November 07 calls way out of the money expecting a strong run being a volatile year and going into bullish seasons. What I didn’t take into account was what the big market was doing which is going down. So now this minor, yet huge, error has cost me over $20,000 in losses in a rather very short time period of a week. I was joking with my sister and her husband, “do you know what can kill an erection? a $20,000 dollar loss in a few days”. At least I thought it was funny and so did they.

I suppose it is good I can laugh about losing so much money, especially when it is the only money I’ve got. I think to myself I do have next year to try again, build up some cash, and start trading. Maybe one day I’ll get this professional trader thing down. I still definitely have no discipline. So my next plan will be building a trading plan on having no discipline. Sounds whack right? Maybe I can make a style so I can still be safe trading with still a lack of discipline. I think thought long-term I will go broke if I don’t gain some skills. I’ve been getting better at selling at a loss even a big loss and getting out. As for my AAPL and MSFT nov calls that expire next week (5 more trading days) well my account is whiped so if there is a 2 day rally I plan to sell out profitably or not.

November 2007 is definitely an exception. It sure had me fooled. I don’t care what Jim Crammer says the market is going down further before it has another big run. My taxes are going to kill me this year. Plus now I don’t have the money to pay off my car, money to pay off my mobile note that I was given the chance to pay $35,000 for which is worth $80,000 and huge saving. I suppose when opportunity knocks and you don’t have the money you definitely beat yourself up a little bit subconciously.

There is no praying or hoping in the stock market. The picture and information is there. It is about calculating and making wise decisions on what is happening in the market. I was really wrong about a bullish November and I take full responsibility for my loss because I wasn’t looking at the “big picture”.

well cheers to 2008 I guess. I guess if I had money Puts right now would of been a fabulous choice.


AAPL OCT 170 CALLS sold out up +25%, GOOG earnings

Okay so to finish from a few days ago I bought AAPL calls going up and I was sold out the falling morning for $2.60 up 25%. I wanted to trade into GOOG earnings, but with a small amount so I only traded $1000. Again I was probably being too greedy. I could only buy 1 contract and I did at $10 for GOOG NOV 690 CALLS, but I should of put my GTC order at $11.50 or $12 at the most. Early morning trading the next day the option only went up to $12.60 so if I only put it up a dollar or more I would of been sold out with a 10% profit. I put my GTC order at $15 because I thought GOOG which his $658 would of rose $5 since I was closer to in the money, but I was wrong. I also slept it! I put my alarm for 3:30 AM to get up right when the market opened so I could sell out, but I slepted in an hour and that cost me $300. I sold out at $7 with a $300 loss. I’m actually happy I loss only $300 because if I would of stayed in I’d lost a bit more. This is what is confusing: I bought my option when GOOG was at $639, but my option fell $3 dollars even when in the next morning it was up $9. You’d think my option would of went up with the stock instead of fell. How is this possible? I figured it had to do something with expiration Friday for options. My call option fell $3 even thought GOOG’s stock went up and held at $9 so like $648. I don’t know why my option fell so much but it did. I think for now on I’m not going to buy calls near expiration Friday. They must adjust the price or something. Anyway GOOG earnings should help the stock rise. The Dow drop of -$366 pts is termporary and I definitely expect Monday or Tuesday next week to have a pop and push the market higher after this big pull back.

Stocks I’ve been keeping a close eye on are FXI, GOOG, AAPL, NUE, SHLD, RIG
FXI is due for a correction with the asian markets. Just recently it has fell 18 pts within a week. If it breaks its major trend I might buy a crap load of Puts on it. AAPL’s earnings are OCT 24th and I might play Puts on it because historically Apple during earnings falls every time.
With NUE steel is starting a strong uptrend helped by X. SHLD is just very volatile and I’m looking for entry points since it is going sideways now. Lastly RIG had a peg of .41 does anyone know this? This stock has continually gone up its trend and if does at $112 it will start bouncing back up again to a higher price.


Stocks, Stress, and Acupuncture

I just recently received my first acupuncture and coupling therapy or should I say rather relaxation time. I just got the massagers info off the internet and she was very friendly and willing to charge me a lower rate for my income. She first did massage, then coupling which is like heated suction on your back to take out acids, and then needle pins in my hands, feet, ears, and head. It is suppose to reduce or get rid of stress for a week. I’ve been pretty upbeat and I have to say more then usual. Even my roommates have told me last night I’ve done a 180, but I think it was more of just being in a good mood and joking the horror movie more than anything. I also got to jam out with my friend on our music project so that was awesome.

Stress recently has gotten the best of me because I’ve been trading so miserably, decreasing my networth day by day, and seeing the pearly gates of heaven burn burn burn infront of me.
If I plan to make a difference in the world with money I’m going to have to make it, not lose it.

I recently, or should I say finally, got my bran new custom 6’6″ classic fish surfboard. I’ll post pictures soon. It’s very wide and fat more than I expected, but very quick.

As for stocks there has been super profitable plays all that I did not trade because I am in over my head in losing dead end trades. I really don’t believe in investments. I laugh at people saying I’ll wait 10 years for a stock to move in my direction. For myself I’d be really old by then. Why would I want to wait 10 years I suppose it’s the same type of person that strictly invests in IRA’s, 401K’s, and planning on retiring after 20 years of military or civilian corporate employment. Well that isn’t me! I want to succeed in trading options now within a certain time frame so I can retire early, much earlier then my peers. I’m sick of working. Working is for droids. I want to “live” and I really mean that in the wholeness of “live” not just work my whole life for no real purpose.

Well enough on the philosophical approach.
Big gainers recently have been probably #1 AMZN and AAPL. More calm big movers for the liquid market would be the QQQQ’s. If you haven’t you really need to check out the big mega trend. Could this be a very bullish year or is the market ready to puke up some serious profits?
Many stocks turned this week after the Dow hit $13,000 level. My MAY 05 105 PUTS in FXI are going my way and all the main charts are lining up for a big fat fall on FXI’s big ass. Things can always change and I may still be wrong if I don’t sell soon for a negotiably decent profit of around 20% for the month.

Recently I’ve seen a change in momentum on WTVI.PK. Not a stock I’m too fond of but its not even a stock its just a penny stock. If it IS TRUE that they enrolled a real astonishing 50,000 new members then its a big milestone and accomplishment for the boring yet “trying” website. This could create major new buying and at $.0035 cents WTVI.PK isn’t cheap, but curiosity.
Will curiosity kill the cat again?


Is the market tired and ready for a nose bleed?

Today most stocks started to show some big red candles engulfing the previous days gains. Most international stocks and indexes, expecially Asia, fell over night. I predict the stocks might rise higher tomorrow, but continue to fall for a few days and then continue their rally since they have been bullishly buying buying buying for the past weeks. One index expecially which has had a second big move is China Index fund (FXI @ $109) currently has had a run from low $80’s to recently $110’s. With the large lower opening price today I think there will be some selling off of some profits during this earning season. I recently bought MAY 105 PUTS. If I’m right I should be sold out by Tuesday April 25. If I’m wrong I’m finished trading stocks for the year. The trade looked very clear and I’m determined that all the indicators and general market is in my favor even with Google.com’s (GOOG @ $471 – after earnings $481) surging profit beating analyst expectations. The overal market has had a good run up and even though I’d like all my stocks to fly high I know its about time for some hard selling. So far economic retail sales and non changing interest rates have made market condition good for bulls and earnings haven’t been so bad either. I think Yahoo.com’s earnings (YHOO @ $27.80) even though were lower the stock will rise because of its real solid value.

Recently my portfolio has been a smelly dump of losers sucking ever profit from me dry. My goal is now to repeatedly play stocks that are profiting me in the correct direction and increase my portfolio to a new high. My account is currently worth around $16,000 down from around $38,000 just since mid Feburary. What I did wrong was get into position and trade after a big win. This I already knew not to do. It’s a general big rule to follow, but I guess the increased account got the best of me. I’m still up for the year maybe + $5000, but I suppose feeling a bit miserable and disfunctional at the moment.

I have not bought Bigstring.com (BSGC.OB @ $.38) because on QCharts it shows buying movement, but it looks like the stock is going to settle a little lower before it moves again so I’m going to wait to buy a large amount of shares. If it does move higher then the public has gained interest and then that will be enough cue for me to know its the right time to invest in it. It maybe be struggling currently, but it is a very new type of email service that I think the trendy crowd will really jump into which will mean big money for the company advertising big names on email accounts.


DJIA down -546 pts at low! All I can say is “wow” and “shit!”

Yesterday, as you should be already so aware of, the China markets had a big correction which basically followed around the world. One of the main causes of the China correction was because asians were buying up stock like no tomorrow. Investing has become huge since the government is helping capitalism and turning asia into a major world power. Now, because of all this buying with no major pullbacks the stock market just went straight up and finally it threw up and just passed out. You should expect upcomming pullbacks. Yesterdays small crash was just the first to more to come including our own market. Analyst keep saying that 2007 will be a very volatile year. Fed Chairman Greenspan and Bernanke say the same too. I think if the banking system can fix fiscal policy then this volatile will be to the upside. The Dow’s low of -546 points yesterday was wowing. I expected buyers to buy up today and make a profit, but I expect by tomorrow even or the end of the week for the market to go further down.

You probably also should notice we are in warnings season when most companies warn for lower profits. With the major drop now in the Dow we are probably going to see stocks drop lower. If you were in any Call options you probably shitted yourself in the pants when China dropped following our market and Europe. I maybe didn’t shit my pants, but the reality check in my stock brokerage account sure did make me think I was about to have a panic attack. Yes, I did see it coming and everyone talks about how Asia was going to crash soon before going back up again, but I don’t think anyone can predict exactly when it will happen. When stocks are going up you don’t buy Puts. I suppose this is just something pricey I’m learning as a student of the market.

I’m going to read one of my commenters books who recommended Gamblers Ruin. It’s on one of my posts that I made a decent profit on. Many people that do not invest saying using the stock market to make money is gambling. I do not like questioning myself, but sometimes I think they are right when I definitely know I gambled a trade. I do not gamble in casinos. I think they are boring. I like playing poker, but I never play for money. I can not spend more then $50 in a casinos on games, although when I trade stocks sometimes I just get into this zone and I don’t even think about the stocks I’m trading, why I’m trading them, and if I should be trading. When this happens I make the worst decisions, trade too much or ALL of my money, and basically trade losing positions. It’s depressing. It’s hopeless. It’s being a totally moron of a gambler.

I really don’t know if its a dependent thing because when I trade I really wish I had someone like myself to over look me or just tell me I’m crazy. Sometimes the finance ninja gets caught in too much action. I’d say the ninja needs to just goto the bar, get a drink, and stay away from his stock trading laptop. My mentor even told me to not trade if you didn’t know where the market was going or if its just too hard to trade. Yes, trading on an easier trend would be more profitable and easy. I guess I just want to so badly get good at this and reach my ultimate goals that principles of consistent tradings get knocked out of my mind somehow.

To any traders out there like me I wish us both the best…to getting some type of help. =D