apple earnings

My 7 day put option trades up 35% – AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, QQQ

Apple reported earnings today so I would have been closed out before any earnings reports. If I would have sold yesterday % profits would have been higher or the low of today. By far I entered the QQQ’s a bit later into the downtrend (2 days later) after a slight higher move on the market waiting for the next fall. It proved to be the best and also the most affordable play. An average person could of bought 10 contracts for $1,420 dollars in a super small account and earned a 25% return within a few days. $500 a week is more than I earn now. LOL. I don’t know if I’ll ever trade again. My subconscious dreams are even telling me I have no basic control over my life. You never have control over the stock market. You only hold the trigger to buy or sell and hopefully Lady Luck is on your side. I earned around 35% total on these 4 plays. It could of been much higher if I had waited (waited!) for the pop on Apple I intuitively knew would happen after it’s first hard fall. I would of been over 100% for the 7 days. See below.

Here are the close on my 4 put option trades:
AAPL 555 MAY PUT Bought @ $20.44 / Close Sold @ $22.29
GOOG 610 MAY PUT Bought @ $19.40 / Close Sold @ $19.10
PCLN 655 MAY PUT Bought @ $20.50 / Close Sold @ $20.70
QQQ 66 MAY PUT Bought @ $1.42 / Close Sold @ $1.93

Now that Apple had positive results and the entire market has followed its lead I would switch directions and start playing options for the next few days. However, I wouldn’t be so confident to see it continually going up even though it had a 10% pull back. Any bad news could send Apple’s stock quickly down.


Apple (AAPL) hits $140 & Southwestern Energy (SWN) hits $46 as I predicted in early May 09′

AAPL @ $140 from a low of almost $122 two weeks earlier.  I knew it was a minor set back and going into their expo/product annoucements for early June 09′ would make the stock wtih increasingly more buzz around people switching computers.  I think most investors and regular average Joe’s think Apple’s stock “hotness” is over, but I think it is really just half way through.  Apple first started with the iPods to gain customers, then got them hooked on their computers, then onto iPhones, then back to laptops, and now Apple just needs to offer the new home entertainment experience which they are getting close to with the iTV.  Their products keep improving and so will their stock.  The health of Steve Jobs the “visionary’ doesn’t help say if he did die or had to step down I’m sure that would put a downer on the stock.  In the meantime hower AAPL’s stock should rise again like GOOG.  I’m on with my targets hitting $140.  It should hit $145 before June 6th which is the predicted annoucements.  From there it could jump to $160-180 target price if really good news or a new product.

As for Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) it hit my target price of $46.  Recently moving in waves and now staying above the $40 price level.  If I was trading call options I would have made some killer profits in the 200-500% range with both stocks moving 10pts in a month up and down.

Both AAPL and SWN have received upgrades from respectable brokerage firms noted Goldman Sachs for AAPL.  This could be an unpredictable summer.  I was taught for the most summers and the stock market fall.  Basically “come May go away”, but since there is a BIG smiley face on most charts (big rising valley U) I would almost predict some stocks will hit new highs in the summer going into the fall.

My fingers are still crossed about the Hawaii Real Estate market.  I know eventually prices will increase, but I’d love to see some volatile high ones within the next year so I can sell my condo for a fat profit as planned because I got it for dirt cheap.  Another part of me says make your loot in the market, pay it off, and keep a long-term vacation home.  Well I’ll see what happens first.


Apple Inc. (AAPL) @ $155 falls -10% after hours to $137 on earnings, my reasoning on AAPL

Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.

This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:

“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”

“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer

One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.

Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)

Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).

I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).

But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…

Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings


FXI Puts – $990 even though technical indicators showed otherwise, + SHLD Nov 130 Calls

This morning I knew the market was going to pop from Fridays sell off. AAPL was up going into earnings currently at $174. My prediction is that it will sell off after hours if it repeats itself from many other earnings and then will continue to move up. FXI has been popping out of the bollinger bands and has fallen the past 3 days. I guess Friday was the better day to play puts and I would of been out profitably. Although it will close under the down trend I sold out of my position because FXI was changing direction I lost -$990. I’ve been wrong before about FXI. Right when I think there will be a major Asian market correction from peaking so high it falls a little then just spikes up higher so I’m not going to play my odds just incase it does pop open tomorrow and follow its big uptrend. I’d rather lose $1000 then $5000. As for SHLD it has been getting good exposure and all of retail stocks today broken about a 15 day down trend with a big white candle. If retail holds ground I can see SHLD easily hitting $140. I’m currently up $350 in my Nov 130 Calls. I now have to regain back the -$990 I lost at the same time. I’m slowly gaining the discipline to sell out even if tomorrow FXI drops and I was correct about the new direction of the trend. Today looked like a very good entry point on both. My first mistake was doing two trades at the same time. I kept telling myself missed money is better then risked money, but of course I still traded.

I was going to do a Put trade on AAPL earnings because even when they are great the stock falls. But instead of possibly losing more money I thought it would be a wiser decision to buy AAPL options after earnings. If AAPL does fall 3-5% lower then buy it at that entry point if earnings are good.

I’m really trying to do as many practice trades as possible, 10-20 for every real trade. I just need to only trade the stocks I practice and it should keep me in check. I really want to pay off some items to clean up some good and bad debt. One being my car which is a $20k trade, my mobile home park loan $80k, and my student loan $40k that helped me buy the real estate.

Did I also mention I need $13k to buy these two new trailers to rent in my park and possible 3/1 home for $13k? This stuff adds up!