Market hit 13,000. Mr. Market’s emotions seem generally mixed to highly optimistic even though we are historically in the “earnings warnings zone”. Any CALL option trade I would of made long in January would of been at least 10-20% in profitability. The January Barometer has kept Mr. Market’s enthusiasm as it is referenced in articles regularly.
AAPL @ $520 – Fall near? Problems with copyrights over iPad in China. How much will it cost Apple on its next earnings? Is it too big to fail? The higher it moves the more volatile it will fall with bad news.
GOOG @ $605 – I think GOOG will hit $700 this year. The iPhone’s are still a hit but the TV marketing campaigns for the DROID and newer smart phones duplicate the iPhone and offer more options than the iPhone plus Droid is dominant in the mobile market.
NFLX @ $120 – Netflix entered the United Kingdom market. I think it’s going to bring a few more billion to their cashflow due to that their are no competitors currently in the UK besides LoveFilm owned by Amazon but doesn’t have the large library like NFLX.
NFLX moved with its Jan. 12′ earnings up 20%. I think it hasn’t moved for almost 2 weeks because it’s just taking a breather. If it grows and expands its business model of streaming/dvd’s into Europe it could be a hot stock again like Apple.
QQQ @ $64 – The QQQ’s have followed all 3 of these big boy Nasdaq stocks. At $64 it’s high as an index stock. This index use to not even move past $44 only until just a few years ago. This is the high, however, if the market continues to go up especially with
AAPL and GOOG move another 50pts with the general market following the QQQ could see new all time highs, however I’m pessimistic and think the QQQ’s will be sold off some lower than $60 within 1-2 months.
On a personal note I’ve been having dreams about prospering and success with bee’s, fish, and snakes. Also my film projects have been slow to come about. I hope to soon start getting my market commentary up in animated form through The Secret Corporation project. Scotland life has improved, some. I still consider the stock market my first home and one day full-time income and everything else I do just a hobby for fun and to share freely with others. However, until I’m able to have complete discipline and earn more than I lose I’ll have to settle for delivering pizzas and freelance work.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings disappointment was pretty predictable with all these other big tech players falling also after good earnings. I don’t like to say “I told you so”, but this stock has been ready to fall hard. From the beginning of the year 2008 this stock has just trembled at every market moving news. Since it did not move UP into its big deal Mac Expo and analyst were boo-hooing the new products that should of made ANY Apple investor worried. Other Apple speculators are saying, “I’m buying AAPL on sell off” well I think they are very wrong on that decision. When a stock has fallen, then falls harder, you are going to buy it on the rush of a sell of? Are you crazy? For a prized stock that is falling there is good reason not to be buying.
This sums it up quoted in an associated press article:
“Apple’s guidance has historically been conservative, but such a divergence from Wall Street’s estimate rattled investors already skittish about the economy.”
“Tuesday’s stock plunge was likely worsened, Snorek said, by the exodus of a large number of investors who had hoped Apple’s stock would be a refuge from the economic pressures hurting the overall stock market.” – Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer
One good point is that Apple Inc. guidance is ALWAYS “conservative” so since they told investors their outlook would show some slower growth (duh!!! look at whats going on with other consumer growth stocks and their partner AT&T (T)) no wonder why AAPL dropped after earnings (just like the stock does many times over). Now will AAPL’s stock fall more? I’m sure of it. Will it continue on big charts to move up with hot products? Most definitely. This is a short-term hard down move, but likely to continue so if I was you or myself I wouldn’t be in a buying position of Apple Inc. anytime soon until the economy shows some recovery and Tech stocks show a real correction and real buying from bigger institutions. AT&T reported consumers slowed on buying bigger plans and defaulted on normal ones. Hello! This just proves that slow growth should happen on the iPhone since consumers can already not affoard their normal cellular plans.
Look at Hansen Foods (HANS) stocks has been falling with its major Monster Energy Drink brans, especially big in the X-Games, has been falling hard even with a peg of 1.06. This stock still has a bright growth future, but now are teenagers buying less $2 energy drinks? (or is it really the parents lower on cash so don’t buy the more expensive brand drinks?)
Oil prices at the pump haven’t changed much. I think most automobile consumersr are getting used to $3 gasoline prices which are liked to get a boost again with increasing oil prices that shouldn’t slow down anytime soon which will keep boosting profits for stocks like Southwestern Energy (SWN @ 51) and Ocean Outriggers (RIG @ $124).
I think solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and HOKU Scientific (HOKU @ $9.20) are likely to fall until a new President is in place and makes a real energy plan to keep boosting production and make solar “special” again. If you have been reading the reports 2009 will be a HUGE year for solar companies just because by then their new production plants will be made and producing tons of polycillicon very wanted in the industry going up in price making these small solar companies worth and valued you more in stock price (then they currently are).
But back to Apple Inc. I like the new laptop Air, I might even buy me one because they are the first to use flash memory for the harddrive. If you aren’t a computer nerd this means faster processing times, less harddrive crashes, and more efficient system. This could be a huge seller. Who cares that it is thin. It uses a flash harddrive and of course very sleek and hot looking. I don’t know how far Apple Inc. will drop, but I’m think below $100 (which would create a peg of 1.00). Where do I think it will be by November 2008 earnings? Hmm. Depends if these rate cuts do the trick and creates more money so people keep buying gadgets. If Apple continues to take more market share there is no reason its stock won’t stop charging pass $200 again. I think realistically Apple might do a 2:1 stocksplit since they just lost $40 billion in share holder value, maybe a split at $100, might get people think to buy it at $50 is cheap (even though its the same price/value). I like Apple. It really trys to innovate and create “new” and that is a company anyone wants to own. I should note the downgrade it got today just throws “warning signs” for future downtrend. Downgrade on Apple? Are you crazy analyst, well not so crazy at least for now…
Quote cited from:
Yahoo! Finance Associated Press Article on Apple Earnings
I’ve noticed from my statistics that the majority of people that find my blog come to read about old information about stocks I’ve blogged about almost a year ago. These posts continually get clicked on and the readers don’t click on anything else or explore, this is a problem. For one thing if you are going to read some of my posts then at least see what else I have to offer! I find it funny because blog readers are commeting on old posts about stock picks and trades, but they don’t actually search for new posts on the same subject!
For example it was great to trade WTVI.PK last January 2007, but believe me you would not want to touch the stock now. I think this goes for almost every penny stocks I’ve encounted. You basically want to buy when people are buying then selling before people start selling if this makes any sense to a real trader. We aren’t trying to hurt anyone, but these are penny stocks. They will eventually fall. Hence, check out SPKL.OB, spicy pickle franchising, it did fall. I lost some money, but I don’t feel the run is over yet. For one thing it is a real operating franchise even though it probably won’t make a profit for a while. It’s a pretty awesome hip trendy fresh-healthy food place and that is what is going for it. Another stock which I can’t even sell out of is CCNG.OB, sports collectables inc. I can’t even sell at $.0001!!! I’ve had a GTC order in for almost 2 months unable because no one will buy my 11 million shares. I’d actually like to hold on to the stock because the sports company is working and doing small stuff like creating kiosks in malls to sell their products to sports fanatics. They are finally starting to think like business professionals. If you want to sell and create a customer base you need to get your product out there.
So I’m going to do some more research on Hansen, Jamba Juice, Jones Soda, Spicy Pickle, and Apple Inc since it is searched so much. I guess investors are really into buying food stocks. As for Apple (AAPL) it just has buzz now and beating many computer makers in the race to take its share in selling personal computers and personal devices.
It has been hard posting about “makin it” because clearly I haven’t yet. Yes, I have increased my wealth and networth so to say, but I haven’t “made it” so I can retire young. I have 2 more years before I’m done with the military. I know I can do it. I just need to strap on a harder thinking helmet and start bowling the right balls to score some perfect strikes.
Last week was an excellent week. My art was together doing its thing. The day I told myself I would sell out my profit went up to + $20,000, but I was at a major disadvantage because I had no phone to call my broker nor internet to sell out. I finally did get to sell out of my Nov and Oct 07 670 call options both well over 100% ROI in less than 5 days market days. I told myself I’d sit back now before jumping into a new trade. I might take a tiny bit of my profits such as $500 to go through GOOG earnings on Oct 18, 2007. The past 2 years GOOG jumped around $30 if it reported good results so if it was another good year my options should sell out the day of earnings profitably.
My eyes are back on Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $167). I think it has finally maken up its mind to start “moving” again. It is definitely capitalizing in on the iPhone and its monopoly. I am seeing more and more iPhones in peoples hands and personally I want one too! I currently have a Nano iPod and enjoy it very much without any problems. Earnings should be stellar with Apple also taking over the computer market currently staking a 25% stake in the share of all computers sold. Apple is hot right now. I’d like to be options and see it go to $200 price target. This may happen at its next expo in January of 2008.
Lastly the only other company I’m interested in is Sears Holding Company (SHLD @ $142) the retail sales reports scared the stock some, but many factors are coming into play to force the stock up going into major retail selling season. Historically on charts it doesn’t move much after mid-November it looks so I don’t know how much a play SHLD will be, but I will watch it for a trade.
The lady I’ve been interested in is awesome, but I don’t think she is interested in me. Maybe the friend deal? Lame. I got to dance with her at Octoberfest here in Honolulu. I had a blast and wish I could do more with her. I did send her flowers and she loved them for sure. I guess only time will tell if I have a fighting chance at her heart.
As for my trailor park my new manager is doing a great job and I plan to buy some new trailers on the lots to rent out more. The second park is still waiting for appraisals and contracts to be done. I bought a residential lot near Austin, TX for $1000. Its right in a major new and upcoming community with tons of golf courses. If I do retire is that what retired people do? Play golf all the time?
After watching Michael Moore’s “Sicko” I think I’m going to also buy land in Canada, France, and Cuba since the healthcare seems to be great and Cuba buying up Peso’s could be a great investment long-term.
Recently I’ve just started a fasttrack college course for an upper level Human Resources class. HR is much harder then I expected. I thought it would be cake! I give HR people much more credit now having to understand all the laws, rules, and regulations on hiring and planning your workforce. Being an HR takes brains I do not have to spare.
For stocks AAPL @ $138 has just been waiting for something to make it move. The news of its 1 millionth iPhone sale is good news to my options which are now in the negative again since I did not sell them when God gave me the choice to up a couple grand. I’m going to stick to my guns about AAPL stock moving much higher. I have to admit the $10 g’s I put into the options can not lose since that money is needed for another mobile home park I’m interested in buying. AAPL currently has a strong upward trend and I count on it to move much higher into Oct if more, many more, iPhones are sold. It’s a hot product and with the price reduction it should sell much more because a new “i” trend product. I’d like to make $20 g’s on AAPL options move the initial $10 g’s out into my escrow for my down payment and use the profits to buy more options. Another stock moving right along which has 100% broken it’s downward trend is SWN. SWN @ $42 now is steadily moving up with new $80 oil highs. Historically both stocks AAPL and SWN and NTRI have moved up end of August into October.
Currently I’m in “C” school for my military rate. It’s awesome. I’d really like to live the college dorm life even in my 30’s. Good food, exercise, computers labs, and young beautiful women. It doesn’t get much better then this. I feel so relaxed and no stress bothering me except getting business deals completed and selling out of stocks profitably.
So far I was wrong about SWN options since I bought them way way too early in Aug and now in Sept they will expire when the stock is just started to move up the past 6 days.
My NYX options that end is Sept have no chance since the stock is so hated. NYX should be a powerhouse and maybe one day it will be trading very high, but for now it doesn’t move past the $80’s.
I’m keeping an eye on NTRI which has moved down to $48 and now strong up into the $55’s. RIG @ $105 is still in the .31 PEG. Unbelieveable if you ask me.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) just recently took a big pull back at $126. I’d load up on shares if I wasn’t broke! hahahaha. Seriosly! Okay I’m not actually broke, but I definitely feel like I’m spent out to the max. For anyone interested in getting a bargain AAPL at $126 currently is because Apple Inc. is a great company that will keep earning profits even if the financial markets have a melt down because of its trendy very wanted products. AAPL current growth trends are off the charts by out selling the entire PC industry with its sleek charming Mac computer sales. All those iPods are finally paying off because those customers are switching to Macs. The iPhone will just be another diamond ring paying off big once it picks up and it will. Apple’s advertising on Tv works. The iPhone is awesome. Apple Inc. keeps turning heads with every new and old product they created improving everything about it, and Apple fans are great influence of more products being sold with mega word of mouth.
Even though currently on a 1 and 5 day chart AAPL looks glim and very bullish I expect bullish up ticks tomorrow or Monday back to the $135. IF AAPL continues to fall with the market (since the market IS falling) then better for me when I will have some capital saved up to buy it when it does start moving up again. I thought AAPL’s flame was over, but with new affordable Mac’s and the creation of the iPhone we could have another 2-5 years of upward growth for AAPL stock. This year I predict it to go well over $200 a share with increasing market share in the phone market and computer market. That currently would be a +$74 profit per share or around a 7000% profit on any option you buy now good until 2009.