What else can I say? I think everyone had a miserable day in the markets today. AAPL & HLF down. Ouch.
I’ve been watching the DOW and it has been slowly turning upside down. I suppose today it threw-up some gains. I got smacked in the face with the ongoing Hacker news piece regarding Apple and Facebook. I sold out of my call options this morning when AAPL didn’t rally after its morning sell-out. I took a loss but not as bad as if I’d stayed in it and hoped for the best which I find even if I get out now I can get back in later at a better price and regain my lost. As for Herbal Life I should have gotten out of it after it didn’t rally – after 11am. Soon the positive earnings weren’t good enough. I didn’t see it turning over with the rest of the market. Around 1pm the market changed it’s position from buy to sell. HLF down -2pts is nothing good for me. I’m glad I had a small position and now will only have around 20 days to pray that Carl Icahn does a private buyout of HLF so the stock shoots up. It keeps hitting around $44-46. If it is 30-60% undervalued at under 10x earnings then I might be able to see the light again under all this heavy cold water pouring on top of me at the moment…I probably took a 25% hit on my account. On a positive note if the market finally does fall some it will be easy put options and I’ll just reverse my position on AAPL because it has the largest downtrend and my early up-entry was just premature. So Apple down -12 today I figured it will go down another -20 what the hell. The apple is falling from the tree and since it has fallen it has become more rotten and who wants to eat a rotten apple?
Redeemed myself today – VERY risky Apple (AAPL) trade +248% – Back in the game!
Okay, so yesterday with $4500 in my account I took a BIG bet on Apple’s stock that since it was swimming around $630 and not dropping that it would move higher. It did move higher into the close so I double upped big time on AAPL OCT 670 CALLS @ $.23. Now, I bought 1 contract of AAPL OCT 670 CALL @ $2.71 only a few days earlier. I think only 2 days earlier. So $3 to $.18 cents isn’t that promising to just JUMP into, but I felt the bear gunslingers in this trade were getting tired and the bulls were regaining energy. I mean, how much positive news does it take to make Apple move again??? All good news and the stock was just constipated sitting on its ass. Once that poop went through it would run again. Well, I was in luck today because although there were always rumors finally luck came my way with an actual fact that Apple was going to show a product in the next week. Apple went from +$5 to +$13 making the out of the money calls suddenly more volatile and quickly change from snails to rabbits immediately as the market maker saw the opportunity to make money. Believe it or not this happened in less than 45 minutes. My option doubled and I couldn’t even be sold out of my GTC because I had an ALL OR NONE on my price of $.50 with the current bid/ask of $.67-.70. In a helpful way that ended me gaining another +$3000 profit as I cancelled it and did a limit price opening it up to partial fills taking around 1-2 minutes of complete thrill as I saw it being filled up at $.80 instead of $.50 (+248%). I wanted AAPL to reach $650. This was my target to sell out but I was able to sell out quickly around $647-648 with my option target above what I wanted. I didn’t wait. I wanted to be out of this trade BADLY. I like big fat tech stocks but not in near death $0 expiring options. I know what happens at the end of expiration when you wait – and HOPE – nadda – zero – sorrows – and lack of discipline that only leaves you unable to stay in the game. I told myself if Apple didn’t do shit today I would sell out at a bigger loss if it ended at $.10 to $.18. However, today I really got lucky and the support on technical charts which I saw a crater forming over the 5-10 day chart make Apple finally pop – however Apple could have just continued to fall – so I WAS lucky on this one even though Apple really was constipated in price. I would have stayed in the trade if my options weren’t near death because it’s a high probability chance that AAPL now will move even higher tomorrow with a big white candle with a kicker bullish chart setup. I’m happy with the cash I got and I’m on to a less risky in-the-money intraday trade. I’m better at trading intraday – smaller profit – less stress – no worries what the price will be the next day.
My currently account status
August 15th, 2012 – began trading again and started with $2000
October 15th, 2012 – into my tenth trade with an ending balance of $12,500 (up 525% – 60 days)
In my my 12 month plan I would be in month 4 so I am 2 months ahead. See post here how to make a million in 12 months trading options IF you are the BEST if you suck you’ll loose your ass.
Up +$7000 or 350% since August 16th. Trading stock options on AAPL & PCLN
I took $2000 of some money I got back from my school and felt the timing was ripe to trade some stock options. During this time I was deep into renovation a rental home and in full force finishing my MLitt in Film Studies dissertation project and essay. This was hardly the time to be trading volatile stock options on large cap stocks that move violently day to day. My main goal was to just earn enough to pay back, well everything, my total debt is around $130,000. I’m not afraid to say it. Most people hide it, but I hide nothing. I’m not proud of it but sometimes you make bad mistake after bad mistake or in my case I just consider myself likely somewhat handicapped in the entrepreneurial department. I would go as far as thinking I am mentally and business retarded at times making irrational decisions to achieve my American Dream – which now I know is definitely not greed for money but greed for personal freedom/desires (Which still cost money).
So here I am with $2000 to basically lose even though I need it for repair costs, credit card bills, yada yada. I see a great trade on Priceline Inc (PCLN) when I see it got crushed after a report on possible lower revenues. This stock has a solid cash balance sheet and great EPS/PE. I bought it around $559. I have been trading CALLS on it ever since and have done pretty well. Every time I get in it my main goal is to be out of it within 24 hours or less. For the most part I have achieved this. The other trade is with Apple Inc. (AAPL). I’ve traded some PUTS and CALLS on it. They have been mostly quicker trades the PCLN. For the most part if I wanted to I could be in and out of AAPL within 2-4 hours earning on average $500-1000. My last trade earned me around $3000. I’ve only done I believe 5 trades in the past 30 days. This is inline with Gary Williams trading rules to only trade 5-10 times per month maximum. I’m taking a break now so I can let my run cool and re-focus on my next trades. I am not as eager to trade as when I was 23-29 years old and I think that is because I am wiser at trading more now at 31 then when I began at a young 18.
I almost took my $7000 profit to buy a sweet badass 1965 mustang, but instead I settled for an ever cooler 1990 Bronco with a failing engine for $900 which I didn’t have to pull any money out of my trading account. Hahaha. Come on, just laugh! The back top comes off and it turns into a muscle jeep. My mom owns my loved diesel Jetta and I hope to get it back or just buy myself one once I have a more stable income. Currently I’m finishing my MBA, working on starting a mini aquaponics fish farm, trading options again, and among all this trying to now edit my first non-fiction book with a friend to publish and sell on all digital readers. So, I don’t know what my future of trading holds for me, but I do know I’m on a good run and I don’t want to give it up so easily.
Oh, if you are wondering about the Toke n’ Toss business ventures, well, it’s completely over. Now I understand why they say choose your partners wisely – marriage or business. Let’s just say this was another $5000 business lesson, but this lesson was one on one truck/stand vending for concert goers. Learned a lot, but learned the most that people that aren’t willing to budget and chip in on expenses should be left on the side of the highway as soon as they start complaining that a twelve pack of beer IS a business expense and YOU are going to pay for it because the partner doesn’t have any money.
See below trades:
AAPL, GOOG, PCLN – bounce back up – plan to continue to fall
In my previous post after the continue trending change in AAPL, GOOG, and PCLN I see them moving down further. News articles have already come up to scare off Apple investors. A bounce back from its previous sharp fall is normal. We’ll truly know a peak has been hit if AAPL big +30pt move dies by the end of the week. However, practicing these 3 helped me pick out the weakest of the litter – Google. Google has been moving like a slug in the crowd and falling harder when taking hits. For this reason out of my 3 practice trades I would trade my life on I would choose Google put options. I intuitively feel it has the most loose too because it has tried so hard to become everything and take over large markets. It is still a search engine and advertising engine, but it’s beginning to spread itself thinner and get into more trouble. Also it doesn’t really MAKE anything. Everything is digital even though it did buy Motorola it sounds just like to make them stronger instead of actually innovating a product line with a whole lot of money.
See chart below – As you can see GOOG moved the least with it’s friends.
My current practice options must be down at least -80% but that’s okay because I’m smart to be practicing my theories instead of using real money like I use to. My expected bounce back on Apple that I knew was going to happen but could’t confirm did happen today. For the most part if a stock takes such a big dive, it’s still worth tons in free cash, and it’s a top tier company it DOES bounce back however from YEARS of watching the market if it is at a super high run up peak if it isn’t able to recapture it’s highs investors and big traders start considering to make million$ trading the other way down because ladies and gentleman you can earn just as much as not more shorting or put options on a stock – some awesome instrumental tools as a knowledgeable trader.
Fantasy Portfolio update / BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on – AAPL, GOOG, PCLN
It’s too bad Yahoo! Fantasy Finance doesn’t let you short or trade options on stocks in your portfolio. I’m currently up 14%. Nothing to brag about compared to leaders supposedly with up to 150% gains in the past 30 days. I don’t know how they are doing it but I can only assume they are trading penny stocks or stocks only under $2.
See shot:
Some BIG OPTION PLAYS I’d trade my life on which I think at the moment are definite risk/reward worthy are put option trades on AAPL, GOOG, and PCLN. They have been trending down for the week 5-20% off their highs. I’ve been waiting and waiting for some big institutional sellers/investors to start taking some profits and selling. I believe this is finally happening as stock analysts re-think Apple. I think it’s run up with Google and Priceline are currently in a stock value correction. The company’s have moved up so quickly a stock correction was bound to happen. Now I’d trade my life on a definite ongoing correction probably another 10%. However, from experience, this could also be a quick buying/selling opportunity. Whenever a high talked about stock like Apple falls 20 points as it did today then next morning it can have a volatile swing upwards confusing any type of trader. So a correct entry point is crucial and very short-term trading profits are important – meaning if I was going to trade puts on any of these companies once I’m up 50-100% in a day on a contract it would be smartest to get out and just get in/out when the timing looks right on technical charts and watch how investors are reacting/how news is changing.
Even with the stocks hit hard today I can bet they will actually be positive tomorrow.
However I feel a put trade over 1 month will have definite positive results. Since I have no money in my account. I will trade as if I only have $2000 for each option. (A total of a $6000 account).
Here are my 3 BIG OPTION PRACTICE PLAYS on AAPL, GOOG, PCLN.
Bought end of close 4/16/12
AAPL 555 MAY PUT @ $20.44 (This is the closest to in-the-money I can buy – although way out of the money with only having $2k towards trade however this option is moving fast with big swings).
GOOG 610 MAY PUT @ $19.40 (Surprisingly, GOOG is higher and I can buy in-the-money puts for $2k)
PCLN 655 MAY PUT @ $20.50 (Closer to AAPL’s option pricing – out-of-the money with $2k trade)
Very short-term such as the next 1-2 days I expect the stocks to pop up, however if I’m right on trending and more importantly – FEAR of losing money for many holders – the stocks should continue a down trend and the more that sell the sharper the decline until a big guy steps in and stops it buying back changing direction – a new market correction. So check back in a week for a post update on this practice trade.
Apple Inc back at $228 and climbing – Obama Healthcare Bill signed into law – YES! Now I predict stocks can continue their uptrends without the “unknown”.
Ok Apple (AAPL @ $228) it’s about time. I’ve been in April 10′ 220 call options and have been watching this stock play around the 220’s driving me nuts because if I could commit to trading it full-time I could of been in and out many times for small profits. I suppose my option is probably still negative right now until it movies over $230’s in which it will likely run fast into the new iPad launch the first week of April 2010 in which I’ll sell my options at around a 25% profit (2 weeks, a bad trade). I’m psyched about the iPad. Many Apple geeks say “screw it” just because you can do everything on an iTouch or iPhone and put it in your pocket. For me though I’ve held out. I might even have to wait until the iPad 2.0 with a video camera built in so you can walk about doing skype/video conferencing anywhere. I like the touch screen and will likely just use it to show off my portfolio and use the Hitchcock application to practice creating a film.
I don’t even have my 2009 iMac anymore. I offered it towards collatoral + all my HD video gear to be a co-owner in www.icanhandlethat.com (not live till June 2010) in which I’ll be doing media full-time and be an owner. I’m really stoked for the development of the company and it’s purpose because it is what I love doing right now which is helping small businesses in media and promotion. So even if I had an iPad I’d have to use my Art Institute school computers just to download the apps on it. I would definitely bypass the iTouch to get a larger more versatile iPad.
As for President Obama’s healthcare bill finally signed into law I’m kind of glad the fighting is over and now we can focus on the economy (even though the $1 trillion cost will have a real affect if we don’t tax citizens (the rich) more to pay for it).
The new healthcare focuses on “preventive health” and that DOES MAKE SENSE. I’m just hoping as a person that doesn’t have healthcare that I’ll be able to get it affordably and be able to get the “preventive” things that keep us truly healthy and vibrant such as chiropractic care, acupuncture, yoga, green foods, and massage. If it won’t cover any of these “true preventitive” healthy living precautions then, well, that will just suck. If I’m going to have to pay high taxes as a broke student that is unemployed currently then at least give me some massage and acupuncture to take away some stress!
I’m glad Obama is the first black President (or should I say half black half white, does it even matter?) and made it his legacy to get healthcare for once and all changed. I thought the great former President Bill Clinton would get to do it. He’s my favorite. A man of the ladies while also being a great peacemaker. President Obama took a big risk in his presidency and I like risky people. He didn’t give up and now it’s a law passed, a super huge one. I suppose everyone better start investing in healthcare NOW because a lot of money will be funneled into healthcare from the government and then people working for the business. Just think about all the businesses that will get paid “no matter what”. This will create a lot of niche sectors currently profiting become likely gold mines in the stock market.
-pm
my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year
hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.
for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):
i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.
for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.
see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:
Paul Meyer 