aapl calls

Up +$7000 or 350% since August 16th. Trading stock options on AAPL & PCLN

I took $2000 of some money I got back from my school and felt the timing was ripe to trade some stock options. During this time I was deep into renovation a rental home and in full force finishing my MLitt in Film Studies dissertation project and essay. This was hardly the time to be trading volatile stock options on large cap stocks that move violently day to day. My main goal was to just earn enough to pay back, well everything, my total debt is around $130,000. I’m not afraid to say it. Most people hide it, but I hide nothing. I’m not proud of it but sometimes you make bad mistake after bad mistake or in my case I just consider myself likely somewhat handicapped in the entrepreneurial department. I would go as far as thinking I am mentally and business retarded at times making irrational decisions to achieve my American Dream – which now I know is definitely not greed for money but greed for personal freedom/desires (Which still cost money).

So here I am with $2000 to basically lose even though I need it for repair costs, credit card bills, yada yada. I see a great trade on Priceline Inc (PCLN) when I see it got crushed after a report on possible lower revenues. This stock has a solid cash balance sheet and great EPS/PE. I bought it around $559. I have been trading CALLS on it ever since and have done pretty well. Every time I get in it my main goal is to be out of it within 24 hours or less. For the most part I have achieved this. The other trade is with Apple Inc. (AAPL). I’ve traded some PUTS and CALLS on it. They have been mostly quicker trades the PCLN. For the most part if I wanted to I could be in and out of AAPL within 2-4 hours earning on average $500-1000. My last trade earned me around $3000. I’ve only done I believe 5 trades in the past 30 days. This is inline with Gary Williams trading rules to only trade 5-10 times per month maximum. I’m taking a break now so I can let my run cool and re-focus on my next trades. I am not as eager to trade as when I was 23-29 years old and I think that is because I am wiser at trading more now at 31 then when I began at a young 18.

I almost took my $7000 profit to buy a sweet badass 1965 mustang, but instead I settled for an ever cooler 1990 Bronco with a failing engine for $900 which I didn’t have to pull any money out of my trading account. Hahaha. Come on, just laugh! The back top comes off and it turns into a muscle jeep. My mom owns my loved diesel Jetta and I hope to get it back or just buy myself one once I have a more stable income. Currently I’m finishing my MBA, working on starting a mini aquaponics fish farm, trading options again, and among all this trying to now edit my first non-fiction book with a friend to publish and sell on all digital readers. So, I don’t know what my future of trading holds for me, but I do know I’m on a good run and I don’t want to give it up so easily.

Oh, if you are wondering about the Toke n’ Toss business ventures, well, it’s completely over. Now I understand why they say choose your partners wisely – marriage or business. Let’s just say this was another $5000 business lesson, but this lesson was one on one truck/stand vending for concert goers. Learned a lot, but learned the most that people that aren’t willing to budget and chip in on expenses should be left on the side of the highway as soon as they start complaining that a twelve pack of beer IS a business expense and YOU are going to pay for it because the partner doesn’t have any money.

See below trades:


Market Journal Update – AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, QQQ / Personal Projects

Market hit 13,000. Mr. Market’s emotions seem generally mixed to highly optimistic even though we are historically in the “earnings warnings zone”. Any CALL option trade I would of made long in January would of been at least 10-20% in profitability. The January Barometer has kept Mr. Market’s enthusiasm as it is referenced in articles regularly.

AAPL @ $520 – Fall near? Problems with copyrights over iPad in China. How much will it cost Apple on its next earnings? Is it too big to fail? The higher it moves the more volatile it will fall with bad news.
GOOG @ $605 – I think GOOG will hit $700 this year. The iPhone’s are still a hit but the TV marketing campaigns for the DROID and newer smart phones duplicate the iPhone and offer more options than the iPhone plus Droid is dominant in the mobile market.
NFLX @ $120 – Netflix entered the United Kingdom market. I think it’s going to bring a few more billion to their cashflow due to that their are no competitors currently in the UK besides LoveFilm owned by Amazon but doesn’t have the large library like NFLX.
NFLX moved with its Jan. 12′ earnings up 20%. I think it hasn’t moved for almost 2 weeks because it’s just taking a breather. If it grows and expands its business model of streaming/dvd’s into Europe it could be a hot stock again like Apple.
QQQ @ $64 – The QQQ’s have followed all 3 of these big boy Nasdaq stocks. At $64 it’s high as an index stock. This index use to not even move past $44 only until just a few years ago. This is the high, however, if the market continues to go up especially with
AAPL and GOOG move another 50pts with the general market following the QQQ could see new all time highs, however I’m pessimistic and think the QQQ’s will be sold off some lower than $60 within 1-2 months.

On a personal note I’ve been having dreams about prospering and success with bee’s, fish, and snakes. Also my film projects have been slow to come about. I hope to soon start getting my market commentary up in animated form through The Secret Corporation project. Scotland life has improved, some. I still consider the stock market my first home and one day full-time income and everything else I do just a hobby for fun and to share freely with others. However, until I’m able to have complete discipline and earn more than I lose I’ll have to settle for delivering pizzas and freelance work.


Profitable call options for AAPL + put options on GOOG in near future w/technical analysis

Apple (AAPL @ 229) hovered around $230 today as I saw Google (GOOG @ 557) move up for the first time in the past week. I sense Google is getting so big it is finally losing some steam with it’s stock. BIDU @ $608 seems like the new hot search engine stock and to be honest I don’t even know why though I’ve watched it climb over +100 points since the new year (up +500pts within 52 weeks). If it’s the new Google taking it’s steam there should be some great future up/down big moves. Apple as well is getting near Wal-Marts market capitalization, BUT still growing stronger with iPhone/iPad orders. See technical charts.


Apple has been strong into it’s second peak. I believe it’s ready to shoot up. Apple has been sitting in the $200 price range for awhile and new product annoucements + a few hundred thousand backorders for the iPad should put this stock into major motion, who knows maybe even a stocksplit in the future.


Looks like the stock is taking a breather with heavy supportive wicks for the past week and today. I would be surprised if it sold off in the morning to the $225’s then by the close moves past $235 this week.


Google shows the second peak in a downward trend selling off (long-term looking).


Short-term trading Google is hitting the bottom bollinger bands and looks like it is going to make a short run (or longer if the stock gains some ground against Apple). A big buying support wick today. I’m curious if that will last into tomorrow or if that was just the Market Maker selling off all the Stop orders again to continue moving up into the week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Google made a come back since it is still a profit machine and its PEG I believe is under 1.00 (value).
If the stock is going to tank it should happen within the month (likely around earnings if disappoint) and if so this baby will likely drop -$100 points easy just technically from a sell off.


Apple Inc back at $228 and climbing – Obama Healthcare Bill signed into law – YES! Now I predict stocks can continue their uptrends without the “unknown”.

Ok Apple (AAPL @ $228) it’s about time. I’ve been in April 10′ 220 call options and have been watching this stock play around the 220’s driving me nuts because if I could commit to trading it full-time I could of been in and out many times for small profits. I suppose my option is probably still negative right now until it movies over $230’s in which it will likely run fast into the new iPad launch the first week of April 2010 in which I’ll sell my options at around a 25% profit (2 weeks, a bad trade). I’m psyched about the iPad. Many Apple geeks say “screw it” just because you can do everything on an iTouch or iPhone and put it in your pocket. For me though I’ve held out. I might even have to wait until the iPad 2.0 with a video camera built in so you can walk about doing skype/video conferencing anywhere. I like the touch screen and will likely just use it to show off my portfolio and use the Hitchcock application to practice creating a film.

I don’t even have my 2009 iMac anymore. I offered it towards collatoral + all my HD video gear to be a co-owner in www.icanhandlethat.com (not live till June 2010) in which I’ll be doing media full-time and be an owner. I’m really stoked for the development of the company and it’s purpose because it is what I love doing right now which is helping small businesses in media and promotion. So even if I had an iPad I’d have to use my Art Institute school computers just to download the apps on it. I would definitely bypass the iTouch to get a larger more versatile iPad.

President Obama signing 2010 healthcare bill into law

As for President Obama’s healthcare bill finally signed into law I’m kind of glad the fighting is over and now we can focus on the economy (even though the $1 trillion cost will have a real affect if we don’t tax citizens (the rich) more to pay for it).
The new healthcare focuses on “preventive health” and that DOES MAKE SENSE. I’m just hoping as a person that doesn’t have healthcare that I’ll be able to get it affordably and be able to get the “preventive” things that keep us truly healthy and vibrant such as chiropractic care, acupuncture, yoga, green foods, and massage. If it won’t cover any of these “true preventitive” healthy living precautions then, well, that will just suck. If I’m going to have to pay high taxes as a broke student that is unemployed currently then at least give me some massage and acupuncture to take away some stress!
I’m glad Obama is the first black President (or should I say half black half white, does it even matter?) and made it his legacy to get healthcare for once and all changed. I thought the great former President Bill Clinton would get to do it. He’s my favorite. A man of the ladies while also being a great peacemaker. President Obama took a big risk in his presidency and I like risky people. He didn’t give up and now it’s a law passed, a super huge one. I suppose everyone better start investing in healthcare NOW because a lot of money will be funneled into healthcare from the government and then people working for the business. Just think about all the businesses that will get paid “no matter what”. This will create a lot of niche sectors currently profiting become likely gold mines in the stock market.

-pm


Hit my first stock target price prediction on Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) @ $41

SWN yesterday hit $41 and just today pulled back as typical, but definitely on a moving force. I believe the last time I spoke last week it was over $35.  What a great call option play, but I’ll have MY day and as long as I keep up with my numbers I should be more ready this fall.  It might just work out for me this time with the market poised to turn harder up with all of Fed. Bernanke’s talkin-the-talk, rumors being spread, some mediocre better numbers on economic reports, and stocks finally moving back up leaving their steeply discounted prices.  It bothers me a bit.  I admit it, I want to trade so bad.  I have to resist the powers and keep my promise to myself….man these months discipling myself not to trade have been hard.  I get these voices saying, “come on this one will work, you’ve been waiting for it, it will only be one trade…” I have to resist the evil within.  I’m sure it means fun and good intentions in it’s own evil mysterious universal ways but I need to stick to my big guns and keep them strapped in just a bit longer.

There will ALWAYs be trades in the future, big moves, small moves, and no moves.  Everyday the stock market goes up and down, sidways, and life goes on.  Today I’m a trader, tomorrow, and for the rest of my life.

I WILL MAKE LARGE PROFITS OFF YOU SWN, AAPL, NUE, GOOG, SPWR, FSLR, GME, and housing stocks your time is near!  You better be afraid market makers of this big Clint Eastword city slicker trader!  Be very afraid I will come back the Green Giant!

Other news on stocks – General Motors (GM) 1:100 reverse stock split.  What a joke.  NOW THATS A PUT OPTION PLAY!  This stock when it goes from $2 to $200 (your money cut in half) will start selling like girl scout cookies.  Oh, the put option on that baby will be one fat profit play mark my words.  ill do an update on it a few weeks after its split.  reverse stock splits are the worse.


Stocks will continue to fall – PUTS – AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, C, SHLD, RIG

The stock market had a small run this week, but not enough to make back the money I lost in my huge Nov 07 call positions. I tell you the most annoying thing that can happen to you is when your co-worker rubs your lost in your face. My reaction like any other trader is to want to beat his ass and prove him wrong, but I have to admit he’s totally right. I did lose some big bucks, I told him, and now he’s rubbing it in my face. I suppose I deserve it in a little way just to have this 3rd party in retrospect show me “you are trading crappy and until you prove me wrong I can joke and not believe you” and I probably shouldn’t of told him. Recently my co-worker has been trading real money. He has already told me he has lost -$3500 real money. Of course he is blaming the brokerage website, the stock (BIDU in this case), and everything else except his own trading actions. I think the only real bright future I have going for me is that I can handle the loss and can take responsibility for my own actions. I lost the money because I waited waited waited just to see it vanish when I could of took a big loss, but still had money left over. I also noticed he has been depositing more money into his account after he loses. This is another thing he doesn’t understand about me. I have not deposited money into my account. I use what I’ve got or else you lose more. His wife does not know about this, I’m sure. He is newly married and even though I shared options investing with him I’m not going to take the blame for any of his future dumb actions. He will not practice trade, he doesn’t read up about market history, and he doesn’t listen. He’s very scholarly, but as he will find out it’s not about being smart it’s about trading with as much information to make the probability in your favor to be right and not just trading off “feelings” or acting cocky.

Speaking of “feelings” I have to say I’ve been overwhelmed with them recently. It is almost as my dreams have be yanked away from me. Paying off that $35,000 note would of been huge for me not having that payment making owning that trailer park much easier. So bad decisions create dead dreams, not to say it won’t be a success, but it would have been a better success paying it off and not trading the markets as I did.

As for real estate I’m suppose to be selling my 2bed/1bath home in Hampton, VA for $105,000 down from $119,900 to an investor who says he will pay cash (equity). This will be good so I can finally close on my second mobile home park. Hopefully, God, yes that great universal truth will be at my side on my next deal. I will be putting around $40k down from my home sale.

Oh yes, the stock market. I bought AAPL DEC 125 PUTS @ $1.17 today. I only had less than $1200 left in my account so it cost me just under that for around 10 contracts or a $1000 trade. This is my last money. In Pring’s Technical Analysis for Charting book it shows 3 trends from the years 1987 to 1989. The charts currently for November 2007 match exactly with this historical charts. Even some of the same things were happening like inflation, slowing growth, and selling less and less (such as homes in our case/construction). If this proves correct we just started to fall from the second bearish top meaning it will fall much more. Then supposedly it will have a run Dec 07 into Jan 08. In jan 08′ it will start to fall through 09′ a fall much steeper and longer then what has currently been taking place. If charts stick then I will be watching for short Call plays and longer Put plays. This AAPL Put option should only last until mid-DEC 07′ if charts pull through with all the negative news. Apple is a great company, but many great companies fall with the markets. It is when everything settles the best companies have unimaginable runs such is what happened in 2003 on after the big fall of 01′.

well later -fn


November 2007 – an exception to a bullish year – market crashing

Well, my sister is right for once. She is very right indeed. I’ve read a lot of books and well wasn’t really watching ALL the charts just the my industry charts on tech. I have an icky feeling that we will see Apple (AAPL @ $172) and Research In Motion (RIMM @ $112) fall to august 2007 lows again. So AAPL could go as low as $120’s. This is scary but true. All of my Qcharts are flipping over on the big charts (weekly and daily). Next week we may see a little run, but 2007 is going to be an exception then that means stocks should fall even hard through the fall months. Everything is in play credit problems, real estate sales dropping, oil rising, the dollar weakening, oh and yeah all stock charts showing a bust. I probably should of been playing closer attention to the big dogs Dow Jones and Nasdaq + futures. Sometimes it just really sucks working a lot because you don’t give yourself fully to what could cost you a lot of money, which it has. I was playing Microsoft (MSFT @ 34.40) and AAPL @ 172 November 07 calls way out of the money expecting a strong run being a volatile year and going into bullish seasons. What I didn’t take into account was what the big market was doing which is going down. So now this minor, yet huge, error has cost me over $20,000 in losses in a rather very short time period of a week. I was joking with my sister and her husband, “do you know what can kill an erection? a $20,000 dollar loss in a few days”. At least I thought it was funny and so did they.

I suppose it is good I can laugh about losing so much money, especially when it is the only money I’ve got. I think to myself I do have next year to try again, build up some cash, and start trading. Maybe one day I’ll get this professional trader thing down. I still definitely have no discipline. So my next plan will be building a trading plan on having no discipline. Sounds whack right? Maybe I can make a style so I can still be safe trading with still a lack of discipline. I think thought long-term I will go broke if I don’t gain some skills. I’ve been getting better at selling at a loss even a big loss and getting out. As for my AAPL and MSFT nov calls that expire next week (5 more trading days) well my account is whiped so if there is a 2 day rally I plan to sell out profitably or not.

November 2007 is definitely an exception. It sure had me fooled. I don’t care what Jim Crammer says the market is going down further before it has another big run. My taxes are going to kill me this year. Plus now I don’t have the money to pay off my car, money to pay off my mobile note that I was given the chance to pay $35,000 for which is worth $80,000 and huge saving. I suppose when opportunity knocks and you don’t have the money you definitely beat yourself up a little bit subconciously.

There is no praying or hoping in the stock market. The picture and information is there. It is about calculating and making wise decisions on what is happening in the market. I was really wrong about a bullish November and I take full responsibility for my loss because I wasn’t looking at the “big picture”.

well cheers to 2008 I guess. I guess if I had money Puts right now would of been a fabulous choice.