War & Oil stock trends. Take notice.
During the 9/11 war oil prices surged and energy stocks followed. Currently the entire market is finally, I say finally, because I shorted it too soon but if I had deeper money longer puts I would be reaping the rewards. My prayers to the Ukraine people. Reading headlines of 10% nuclear war chance seems dreadful. It doesn’t matter how much money you earn flipping houses or in the market if the world is bombed with nukes. Money is worthless at that point so I’m just staying positive that we, including Putin, will get to some point of agreement or end to this conflict. Usually when the USA enters a war we say months but it turns into years. If you view the chart below it shows and energy company following oil.
Just recently, as oil began to spike, oil rig companies that weren’t as profitable now are reopening their unused rigs again for foreign and domestic capabilities to drill. Same thing happened when we had oil conflicts. From my experience in the stock market trends repeat themselves and that’s when you should take notice, journal it, and use it to your trading advantage.
So part of me wanted to invested in long calls on Facebook. It’s still a cash generating machine globally and I really liked my metaverse VR goggle experience even though I’m not a gamer. However, I decided after seeing how energy stocks were up I researched a little more. I came to the conclusion that if this war continues and draws out energy is where to be until it is resolved. So I’m taking a big gamble on beaten down energy stocks that typically follow the leaders around oil prices. We have been living on cheap imported oil for a very long time…
Stocks like RIG, SWN, HAL, XOM
I bought contracts on 1 leap year call options. A whole year to be right or wrong on RIG which predominantly has oil drilling rigs, equipment, and services foreign and domestically. It would actually make a great covered call play at the current price if trends up long-term. I think as long as there is war and conflict we will see a lot of movement in these stocks that have been dead since the end of 9/11.
The real question I have to answer and take action myself is if I’m very right at what point am I happy with my profit and take it off the table. I guess that would be when Putin gives in or his country takes over his country or maybe his army just loses. But, how soon will that happen? You think with all the super tech military drones we have this war would end soon. And what about cyber wars? If Russians have been hacking companies and governments you would think more than ever they would be hijacking everything they can to control the digital e-commerce world creating more problems.
my big 2009 stock picks – new option practice trades going into new year
hello. how has your stock trading been going these days? currently I’m reading the Dick Davis Dividend. a big fat book with a lot of “i don’t knows” in it. i’m about only 30 pages in to it. definitely a slow read and waiting for the good stuff. i’ve never known a writer so interested in summer camp. i couldn’t stand the ones i was a counselor at so i suppose its how much you dig it.
for my 2009 big stock picks (For myself):
i have a strong conviction that X Steel (X) currently at $38 is going back up up up. it just recently broke its downtrend and slow like a crater tippy toeing back up. i could be wrong and like mr. davis “i don’t know” because there are so many “ifs” in the market that change circumstances, but for now if i bet my life on it i’d buy X call options and the stock (covered calls). even in a slow economy we are still building and so is many growing countries such as china and india. other stocks i see ripe are Apple (AAPL) at $98. it recently hit $110. i see everyone with an iPod and many people i know and people i meet talk about how they want to buy an apple computer. when you go into their mall show room retail stores its stuffed with helpful workers and masses of interested potential and current apple fans. i think another star is AMAT Technologies (AMAT). currently at $10 it is one of those innovative companies and with obama’s energy bill it should strike some wicked fat solar contracts. southwestern energy company (SWN) is always knocking its head with the trend. if you look at the charts its broke its trend and has been moving sideways. its currently on its low so i expect it to move past $30 again currently at $28+ a share. lastly the credit card companies Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) are both on a tidal wave and likely profiting from this credit mess and consumers going back to credit card use not home equity for all those christmas presents this year for the kiddies. V at $52 still new to the stock market exchange is likely to move quicker past $60 i think.
for my stock trades i’m currently still up +690% since august 2008. if i would have sold out of my last option trades sooner i would have been up more but because i neglected them i lost over 130% on those trades, but that’s okay i’m back in practicing again and that is what counts. i just need to keep practicing even when I see a stock like HOKU at $2.89 and I want to be in it. the more practicing i do the closer and sooner i will get to my goal of understand my stocks better to trade them with less risk and what pisses me off the most is telling me trading in the stock market is gambling. it isn’t if you take real calculated risks which i am practicing on this year.
see recent practice trades going into new year 2009:
hello. from my observations were moving sideways.
hello. the stock market is definitely moving sideways from my charts. the moves for call and put options on SWN (southwestern energy company) are just amazing and as much as I want to get on the band wagon and ride the ups an downs on the stock i need to not trade and stick to my disciplined timeout. i haven’t been doing a lot of the things i want to do such as reading more economic and stock market books, journaling the market and my thoughts, and most importantly doing more practice trades. my last 2 classes will be done this week with hawaii pacific university and then i start my masters next spring. i plan to do it economics. i really like the markets so why not. i need to get back to journalizing my practice trades into excel. i went absent and i need to get back into the movement of practice trading more often and more practice trades on of course, more events. i might even post some personal finance sarcasm on my blog soon too. only if i could come up with some material.
anyway i’m on itunes now… yeah i know. i need material for this too but it will likely be non-stock market related, or will it? search “punks with aloha” in the search bar in the itunes store – its a podcast.
new stock chart trends updated (right – CHART TRENDS)
I’ve uploaded about 20 of the stocks I watch daily, where the trend I think it is going, and commentary on the chart for my reference to see if I was right or wrong for future new charts.
Paul Meyer 
Can you explain the solar sector to me? Gained back 70% of my position in First Solar (FSLR) today. Nope I’m not out yet!
Okay. If you are like a stock wizard or professional and for some crazy reason your reading my posts that show me notoriously multiple times over I’m very wrong on stock directions then please comment on the stocks in the solar sector. All my charts showed First Solar (FSLR currently @ $189 + up to $191 after hours up +10%) being technically going up. All the charts had a smooth easy riding sloping uptrend which broke the daily downtrend.
The following day I got hammered losing around 40% of the capital in the trade or $400. Yes I could of sold out and kept $600 to stay alive for my next trade, but there was no reason for FLSR to go down. It was just negative market news bring down the stock. Furthermore FSLR dived all the way down to $165! What a Put play that would have been if I would have just changed positions since I saw realistically the day after I bought it the stock was showing a “dark cloud” a bearish signal showing downwards movement. So I saw my option price go down to losing 90% of its value. Just recently yesterday it broke the 55 minute downtrend and going up again today I’m back at 70% the value of my 1 contract or around $700. In after hours trading FSLR moved up another 1% or +2 pts to $191. I bought the contract at $196. Now that time is strongly against me and I haven’t sold out within 2-3 days of my planned trade I’m forced to see if FSLR will move over $200 as planned going into 4Q results as planned on Wednesday Feb. 13th. This CALL trade was based on movement going into results. Analysts (ZACKS) are currently predicting a surprise for First Solar results. In the position that it doesn’t given stellar surprising results this stock could be extremely punished or shoots up another 10%. I currently need the boost to sell out of my GTC at $20. I’m currently 13 points away in my options so technically the stock would have to move like 20 points or around to the price of $210 within 2 days. Yes, not realistic, I agree too. So if it does spike again tomorrow the day before the results I am going to sell out likely either breaking even or +10-20% ROI. If bad market news comes out and pushes FSLR down I might be forced to hold it through the results. I’d rather miss a move then kiss all my $1000 trade money good by.
Is it that ZACK’s predicts a surprise in FSLR which made it move +10% today? Did buyers just jump in with the stock pushed down a lot? I noticed HOKU at $10.21 also moved around +8% today. I can also agree solar stocks are super volatile right now, but what moved them for these past two days starting this week. It is driving me nuts. I think the next $1000 trade I do will be on a much less volatile stock like NUE, AAPL, EOG, SWN, RIG, BAC. These stocks do move with swings but not -40 pts down then +40pts up in about only 1 week like FSLR has. Good grief! One day when I can watch the market all day I will trade on such a big move and move with the direction in real time. I’m sure many traders are rich just trading such a move off FSLR. Also coming up is Nutri Systems (NTRI @ $24) earnings. The stock has been shorted heavily although with a peg of like .40 and still a lot of growth because diets are a fad. Diets have been going on for centuries! NTRI actually might surprise investors on results and this stock could zoom up in price. All of the damage has already hammered the stock down with bad news and bears eating at it. In a few days analyst could be wrong and institutions buy into the stock again. This stock was in the $70’s before it tanked. It is currently at $24 hitting a low of $20. One of my strategic plans is to buy CALL options on it and go through earnings with only $100 in the trade or 1 contract. Something very small of my $1000 so just in case the stock blows or doesn’t move I will not lose much.
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February 11, 2008 | Categories: $1000 options trade, 2008 hoku trade, 2008 stock trends, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, NTRI, nutri systems earnings, solar sector commentary | Tags: $1000 option trade, blog, First Solar, FSLR FEB 210 CALL, FSLR technical stock chart, HOKU, NTRI, nutri systems earning, solar sector commentary, trading | 3 Comments