Paul Meyer Buys Houses

2008 hoku trade

Can you explain the solar sector to me? Gained back 70% of my position in First Solar (FSLR) today. Nope I’m not out yet!

Okay. If you are like a stock wizard or professional and for some crazy reason your reading my posts that show me notoriously multiple times over I’m very wrong on stock directions then please comment on the stocks in the solar sector. All my charts showed First Solar (FSLR currently @ $189 + up to $191 after hours up +10%) being technically going up. All the charts had a smooth easy riding sloping uptrend which broke the daily downtrend.

The following day I got hammered losing around 40% of the capital in the trade or $400. Yes I could of sold out and kept $600 to stay alive for my next trade, but there was no reason for FLSR to go down. It was just negative market news bring down the stock. Furthermore FSLR dived all the way down to $165! What a Put play that would have been if I would have just changed positions since I saw realistically the day after I bought it the stock was showing a “dark cloud” a bearish signal showing downwards movement. So I saw my option price go down to losing 90% of its value. Just recently yesterday it broke the 55 minute downtrend and going up again today I’m back at 70% the value of my 1 contract or around $700. In after hours trading FSLR moved up another 1% or +2 pts to $191. I bought the contract at $196. Now that time is strongly against me and I haven’t sold out within 2-3 days of my planned trade I’m forced to see if FSLR will move over $200 as planned going into 4Q results as planned on Wednesday Feb. 13th. This CALL trade was based on movement going into results. Analysts (ZACKS) are currently predicting a surprise for First Solar results. In the position that it doesn’t given stellar surprising results this stock could be extremely punished or shoots up another 10%. I currently need the boost to sell out of my GTC at $20. I’m currently 13 points away in my options so technically the stock would have to move like 20 points or around to the price of $210 within 2 days. Yes, not realistic, I agree too. So if it does spike again tomorrow the day before the results I am going to sell out likely either breaking even or +10-20% ROI. If bad market news comes out and pushes FSLR down I might be forced to hold it through the results. I’d rather miss a move then kiss all my $1000 trade money good by.

Is it that ZACK’s predicts a surprise in FSLR which made it move +10% today? Did buyers just jump in with the stock pushed down a lot? I noticed HOKU at $10.21 also moved around +8% today. I can also agree solar stocks are super volatile right now, but what moved them for these past two days starting this week. It is driving me nuts. I think the next $1000 trade I do will be on a much less volatile stock like NUE, AAPL, EOG, SWN, RIG, BAC. These stocks do move with swings but not -40 pts down then +40pts up in about only 1 week like FSLR has. Good grief! One day when I can watch the market all day I will trade on such a big move and move with the direction in real time. I’m sure many traders are rich just trading such a move off FSLR. Also coming up is Nutri Systems (NTRI @ $24) earnings. The stock has been shorted heavily although with a peg of like .40 and still a lot of growth because diets are a fad. Diets have been going on for centuries! NTRI actually might surprise investors on results and this stock could zoom up in price. All of the damage has already hammered the stock down with bad news and bears eating at it. In a few days analyst could be wrong and institutions buy into the stock again. This stock was in the $70’s before it tanked. It is currently at $24 hitting a low of $20. One of my strategic plans is to buy CALL options on it and go through earnings with only $100 in the trade or 1 contract. Something very small of my $1000 so just in case the stock blows or doesn’t move I will not lose much.

sold out of HOKU call option up +100% – in AAPL call option on big dip

I successfully sold out of HOKU JAN 15 Calls @ .80 (bought at .40). It is currently trading at $1.00-1.50 which was where my initial GTC order was at but I reduced my sell price to get out of it quicker. Currently in AAPL JAN 220 CALL at .90. I would of liked to buy it at the end of the day down -14pts at around .50, but I don’t have that favorable time to wait, so I bought in it down -6pts at $190 at .90. My current GTC order is up .50 cents at $1.40 in stead of up $1.00 more. My plan is for it to bounce back up to $200 to sell me out quickly in the process going into 2008 mac expo and earnings Jan 18.

now for a complaint. something I usually don’t do. i officially dislike Wells Fargo banking customer service. I want to go to their call center and fart until my face is blue, then punch them all, then close out my account. They make it incredibly hard for a military member who goes to many port calls to take a block off a credit card and checking account. They know the account holder is active military on a ship although they treat you like a theft criminal. I’m like “you fucking bastards, if I was a theft I wouldn’t know everything I’m telling you, sorry I don’t know my account number I never have, but here is everything else, where I am, and all my current balances”. Those bastards piss me off. Well they prevented a bill from being paid, a storage bill, so now I have to send a bill pay check from another bank just to pay it so my shit doesn’t get auctioned off while on a patrol PROTECTING THEIR FUCKING ASSHOLES. as you can see this stresses me a bit out. well cheers!