2007 market crash

I couldn’t be 100% more wrong. Wishy-washy indecisiveness with markets

So all my short term plays yesterday would of failed today, 100% of them. Stocks have been going up and down each day as if each day is bearish or bullish day. What you think is going to happen next is probably the complete opposite.

Lets looks at Citigroup (C @ $31.32). The entire day the major headline was “Investment group buys 5% stake in Citigroup” basically optimistic positive news article thinking there must be a gem hidden in financials since this investment group is buying them even though again all these banks have billion dollar losses! Although Citigroup really failed to move everything else sure did. I can’t express how I feel about this volatility. If I was sitting at my computer all day and was willing to trade intraday I might really dig it, but when you are trying to trade short term weekly trades this jumpyness hurts. All of my stock market muscles are being broken, pulled, and weakened. I’ve yet to have a come back, make some touch downs, and get back into the game healthy. I’m hurt and probably will be on the stock market sidelines for a very long time. My account now says a balance of $300. “Wow”. Well that’s life for yah, well for me at least.

I’m going to read my bible tonight. I’m going to read it until I read myself to sleep. I’m not much of a bible reader, but I need to start learning better discipline then what I’ve been acting on lately. I know I’m putting what talent I do have trading stocks to the trashcan and if I keep it up I may never trade again because I won’t feel confident enough with so much regret.

Amazingly enough from what I was taught at the end of November stocks are suppose to have a run and move up. So maybe even with all this downside this is that run during the last week of Nov. and I’m playing Puts instead of Calls because I’m so confused. If you aren’t confused and you are making 100% profitable trades then I’d sure likely to know what you are doing.

Now as for practice trading goes I’ve actually have done pretty well for a large majority of my trades on paper. It just seems when I do it with real money I get greedy and then I get slaughtered. Seems like the past four days stocks have trades higher at least for technology. As for financials stocks of fallin except for today. When will all these billion dollar losses change the market? Are all the falling stock prices already priced into the billion lossed? Hmmm….


Choppy fall markets continue with late day sell offs and rollercoasters!

So I’m in San Diego, CA on my north patrol portal. This is my first of many I suppose if our boat keeps working. The stock market has been ruff as usually simular to Alaska waters. I uploaded many technical analysis on stocks charts so be sure to see them (flickr pics on right side).

So I’m thinking after looking at many charts that the markets trend is still going down.

My practice option trading would go something like this: [short term plays]

BUYING CALLS on:
Southwestern Energy Company (SWN @ $49) – hitting bottom BB’s with strong trend up with raising oil prices increasing more popularity for energy to increase.
GameStop Co. (GME @ $51) – following strong uptrend and has been sold off even though it is the number one electronics game retailer. Every kid, teenager, and dad goes to this store to buy new and used games. It’s hot, and going into christmas its sales should increasingly rise.

BUYING PUTS on:
Apple Inc. (AAPL @ $172) – Hot product, high price, but currently tech and the entire market makes this stock so vulnerable to any move and I think the next move will be down.
Sears Holding Co. (SHLD @ $107) – Super company, lowering peg, but it seems retail just isn’t the industry to be buying in at the moment. Big downtrends and probably will see lower prices before buying happens.
Macy’s (M @ $28) – Again. Mega store everyone knows, but not in the buying club at the moment. Is anything? Low peg, lots of value, but no buying into it.
Goldman Sachs (GS @ $207) – This financial stock even though has losses is one of the better value you ones that won’t be held down for too long. Low peg of .70, low PE, but the banking stocks are just in crutches. The only banking stock I think should outperform all the others besides losses is Bearsterns (BSC @ $91) because its book/price is $86. I think it will keep bouncing off this support price. Peg currently at 1.06. I think this is the best play if buying CALLS. BSC will be the first to back to its highs, at least I think.
Citigroup (C @ $31) – This stock is going to its grave in my opinion. Mega huge banking system that I feel hasn’t got credit for the billions it has lost yet. But nothing can beat Country Wide financial (CFC @ $8) – This thing is going to $1 in my opinion. Mega PUT stock. You could probably get rich playing PUTS on it if you were smart and had money left to trade.
Google (GOOG @ $666) – Note the price! Scary huh? Stock charts show GOOG flipping over and about to be sold, at least short term. Peg is 1.26 not bad for a $600 stock which really says something, its going higher!
Nutri Systems Inc (NTRI @ $25) – This stock just has big pops (big white canldes) and then tanks. Sell offs. Funny thing is that its peg is like only .36 or something right now. IF IF IF it proves still to have good growth next quarter this stock is going to jump probably 30-50% in one day. Sounds crazy, but I could see it happening being sold off like an ugly stock now, but it is also getting all these lawsuit cases which probably isn’t helping publicity to want to buy it either.
Mastercard (MA @ $181) – Hot stock, super product. They basically just make millions a day off dumb consumers spending credit cards and never paying them off. I’m really not sorry if you are one of them. You have a choice, which is why this stock is going higher, but in the mean time it looks like it is being sold off some.
Ocean Outrigger (RIG @ $129) – RIG looks ready to fall some. Major growth and long-term CALL play in my opinion with rising oil prices.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS @ $30) – recent +7% just went to 0%. Falling charts makes this a short-term PUT play. Lots of Tv advertising you should be noticing especially on ESPN. They want to be a number one sports retailer and they are doing the right things to get there and stay there for a while.
China International Index Fund (FXI @ $168) – This stock has been falling and will continue to with the markets/asia markets. Charts show more selling coming.


Markets jump on HPQ share buyback, but what about all the other bad news?

I’m a bit blown away how the market pops open so high, to trade higher, then fall, and finally to look like a last buy back in. The market sure is choppy for the fall time. The majority of the PUT positions I practiced on Monday actually sold out by the end of the day profitable 10-30% up then closing negative. Apple for instance – if you check out the charts it shows many doji-spinner stars showing indecision. The stock doesn’t know to go up or down, but from the fundamentals, 50-day MA, 200-day MA, and current trend it could be moving down much further soon, or at least this is what I believe especially during December.

The last 30 minutes the market shooted up then suddenly sold off I guess the last 10 minutes of that 30 minutes of the day. My predictions would be that the market will drop lower tomorrow if it was a quick sell off because the Fed’s say, “hey the economy still is having slow growth” + Oil going to higher levels + bad home constructions and sales + did I say unemployment is predicted to raise because of the slower growth. Remember when you have slow growth or slow sales especially in the resturant industry you need to start letting people off their usual shifts early. If the store is selling it can’t keep its workers on the clock if the sales are coming in to use the labor. This is just plain economical common sense. So it does make sense that unemployment should rise if sales are down, construction is down, retail sales are down, because employers should be cutting hours short or laying off workers.

Recession? Likely, but technology is still growing getting positive results. Retail is very much sold off way below 50-day and 200-day averages with favorable PEG scores even if earnings are slow (SHLD @ $111 and M @ $28). So I don’t think recession is coming yet, but cycles are starting to change. The Fed can’t keep cutting rates forever and will likely soon raise them probably next year to manage inflation because currently with super low rates we are generating stagflation with slow growth. I maybe wrong, but at least in textbooks usually after the 4th cut on interest rates then rates will start to rise again. Some Financial stocks are really favorable right now (GS @ $212 – PEG of .69 and BSC @ $93 – PEG of 1.10 and book/sales price of $86, it is almost worth its BOOK PRICE!)

As for my options. My DEC 125 AAPL Puts are down around -60%. Not good. It will probably be my last trade for a long time. So if it doesn’t work and Apple Inc. doesn’t fall then I think I will be just practice trading for a good year or until the entire market down trends with a firm trend and the indecision is gone and the decision to SELL SELL SELL in investors eyes will be common commentary on Yahoo! Finance’s frontpage.


For the Monster Energy Drink Investor – Hansen (HANS) stock report

I did a minor report on what I thought of Hansen Foods Co. (HANS @ $41.52) about a year ago. Many people search HANS and find my blog and read it so I thought I’d post again on the Monster Energy drink trend innovator. First Monster energy drinks are still a hit. My rack on the ship is full of the Monster Kaos fruit energy drink including my favorite Red Bull. I thought it was a super buy at around $33 trending up and it was. You would of made at least +17pts or almost 40% ROI. Now HANS @ $41.52 still looks like a great growth play on a winning company that wins over youth and sports activities, but although it has a favorable PEG Ratio score of .80 well below a value considered stock of 1.00 its trend is definitely moving down with the market so I wouldn’t say buy up just quite yet until the market has clearly bottomed out. Somebody wrote on a stock forum “not to catch a falling knife when falling” a teacher taught me that too. At times I’ve tried to catch that falling knife only to lose thousands of dollars and have a miserable weekend. HANS’s F/ PE is around 20 not as high as its PE of 32. I think it could fall somewhat more.

Recently I’ve been having debates over where the market is going to go. To tell anyone I have no clue. I’m just watching it as it comes, but what I do see is major support wicks on the bearish and bullish sides depending on what stocks I’ve looked at. For most I see spinners meaning indecisiveness/uncertainty. For the most park the major peak came in October 07′ and now a second smaller peak has occured just this week and stocks continuted to fall afterwards meaning the stock market in general should move much lower again before created a “W” type correction. If anything I’ve learned from any teacher is that the next 2 years should be all down with a few bullish runs, but small. So is HANS a BUY? Maybe since it isn’t a tech stock it could move up with positive news and performing earnings reports, but if it is like Apple (AAPL @ $166) that falls or goes up to just about any major news that comes out then it might be falling back to the $30’s once again which in a year or two would be a super BUY. I really consider looking at charts and seeing where the DJIA and NAS are going before buying it even if you are a big fan of the energy drink and company.

Until the big exchanges and averages start changing direction I would play PUTS on just about anything. There are some stock splits coming up so I might be playing CALLS on these two which are BWA and DE.


Stocks will continue to fall – PUTS – AAPL, RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, C, SHLD, RIG

The stock market had a small run this week, but not enough to make back the money I lost in my huge Nov 07 call positions. I tell you the most annoying thing that can happen to you is when your co-worker rubs your lost in your face. My reaction like any other trader is to want to beat his ass and prove him wrong, but I have to admit he’s totally right. I did lose some big bucks, I told him, and now he’s rubbing it in my face. I suppose I deserve it in a little way just to have this 3rd party in retrospect show me “you are trading crappy and until you prove me wrong I can joke and not believe you” and I probably shouldn’t of told him. Recently my co-worker has been trading real money. He has already told me he has lost -$3500 real money. Of course he is blaming the brokerage website, the stock (BIDU in this case), and everything else except his own trading actions. I think the only real bright future I have going for me is that I can handle the loss and can take responsibility for my own actions. I lost the money because I waited waited waited just to see it vanish when I could of took a big loss, but still had money left over. I also noticed he has been depositing more money into his account after he loses. This is another thing he doesn’t understand about me. I have not deposited money into my account. I use what I’ve got or else you lose more. His wife does not know about this, I’m sure. He is newly married and even though I shared options investing with him I’m not going to take the blame for any of his future dumb actions. He will not practice trade, he doesn’t read up about market history, and he doesn’t listen. He’s very scholarly, but as he will find out it’s not about being smart it’s about trading with as much information to make the probability in your favor to be right and not just trading off “feelings” or acting cocky.

Speaking of “feelings” I have to say I’ve been overwhelmed with them recently. It is almost as my dreams have be yanked away from me. Paying off that $35,000 note would of been huge for me not having that payment making owning that trailer park much easier. So bad decisions create dead dreams, not to say it won’t be a success, but it would have been a better success paying it off and not trading the markets as I did.

As for real estate I’m suppose to be selling my 2bed/1bath home in Hampton, VA for $105,000 down from $119,900 to an investor who says he will pay cash (equity). This will be good so I can finally close on my second mobile home park. Hopefully, God, yes that great universal truth will be at my side on my next deal. I will be putting around $40k down from my home sale.

Oh yes, the stock market. I bought AAPL DEC 125 PUTS @ $1.17 today. I only had less than $1200 left in my account so it cost me just under that for around 10 contracts or a $1000 trade. This is my last money. In Pring’s Technical Analysis for Charting book it shows 3 trends from the years 1987 to 1989. The charts currently for November 2007 match exactly with this historical charts. Even some of the same things were happening like inflation, slowing growth, and selling less and less (such as homes in our case/construction). If this proves correct we just started to fall from the second bearish top meaning it will fall much more. Then supposedly it will have a run Dec 07 into Jan 08. In jan 08′ it will start to fall through 09′ a fall much steeper and longer then what has currently been taking place. If charts stick then I will be watching for short Call plays and longer Put plays. This AAPL Put option should only last until mid-DEC 07′ if charts pull through with all the negative news. Apple is a great company, but many great companies fall with the markets. It is when everything settles the best companies have unimaginable runs such is what happened in 2003 on after the big fall of 01′.

well later -fn


Energy drinks, Smoothies, Pickles, and Apples + makin it.

I’ve noticed from my statistics that the majority of people that find my blog come to read about old information about stocks I’ve blogged about almost a year ago. These posts continually get clicked on and the readers don’t click on anything else or explore, this is a problem. For one thing if you are going to read some of my posts then at least see what else I have to offer! I find it funny because blog readers are commeting on old posts about stock picks and trades, but they don’t actually search for new posts on the same subject!

For example it was great to trade WTVI.PK last January 2007, but believe me you would not want to touch the stock now. I think this goes for almost every penny stocks I’ve encounted. You basically want to buy when people are buying then selling before people start selling if this makes any sense to a real trader. We aren’t trying to hurt anyone, but these are penny stocks. They will eventually fall. Hence, check out SPKL.OB, spicy pickle franchising, it did fall. I lost some money, but I don’t feel the run is over yet. For one thing it is a real operating franchise even though it probably won’t make a profit for a while. It’s a pretty awesome hip trendy fresh-healthy food place and that is what is going for it. Another stock which I can’t even sell out of is CCNG.OB, sports collectables inc. I can’t even sell at $.0001!!! I’ve had a GTC order in for almost 2 months unable because no one will buy my 11 million shares. I’d actually like to hold on to the stock because the sports company is working and doing small stuff like creating kiosks in malls to sell their products to sports fanatics. They are finally starting to think like business professionals. If you want to sell and create a customer base you need to get your product out there.

So I’m going to do some more research on Hansen, Jamba Juice, Jones Soda, Spicy Pickle, and Apple Inc since it is searched so much. I guess investors are really into buying food stocks. As for Apple (AAPL) it just has buzz now and beating many computer makers in the race to take its share in selling personal computers and personal devices.

It has been hard posting about “makin it” because clearly I haven’t yet. Yes, I have increased my wealth and networth so to say, but I haven’t “made it” so I can retire young. I have 2 more years before I’m done with the military. I know I can do it. I just need to strap on a harder thinking helmet and start bowling the right balls to score some perfect strikes.

cheers, FN


whiped out! – starting off with $1000 again – i got a poised Apple!

Well…Here I am starting at $1000 again. The only stock that didn’t go down on me was my spicy pickle franchising stock. It’s down -$200, but nothing compared to my Nov MSFT and AAPL out of the money options. I was totally whiped out and I mean clean. Oh well. It is just money right? I definitely should of been watching the Nas and Djia which I didn’t realize were trending down until my older sister told me why she thought the market was going down. It came to me so unexpected, but I guess I should of expected the exception happening. I’ve been heavily deep into watching technology industry charts that this sudden crash just got me. I’ve already taken $1000 to $10,000 many times so I’m pretty confident I can do it again with the market falling so hard playing some Puts and then waiting for it to stop and play call options on AAPL and RIMM all the way back up to their 52 week high’s. Apple (AAPL currently at $156!) is still a great company with everything going for it. New awesome sleek products going into international markets and selling many iPhones its new product everyone wants. Oh, and did I say christmas and iPods? I have good reason for it to go back up in price after tech has been sold off but it will be a little while before that happens. I find analyst are suddenly bearish on Google (GOOG @ $642!). Why? This stock is major growth power and low peg of 1.30. If GOOG drops to the $600’s which it probably will with a PEG near 1.00 that stock will become a major buying opportunity. It is just too bad options cost so dang much. I probably could only afford way out of the money for $1000. I’m still rooting on Apple.

So because of this disaster. I’ve lost my total account basically around $26,000 within 1 week when stocks started to fall after dumb Cisco’s report (CSCO). I definitely should of just took out my winnings and paid off some crap or bought another house. I guess I keep learning the hard way. It isn’t easy being so risky sometimes. I will not be able to buy off my note for $35,000.

A person just gave me another offer of $105,000 for my single family home so I’m going to take it. That will give me a $35,000 profit after owning it/renting it out for almost 3 years. So this will go as my down payment through a 1031 tax exchange for the bigger mobile home park for $190,000. I ending mortgage was around $58,000 so after all the costs I should have at least I hope $40,000 applied to the commercial mortgage. I could also of refinanced my current mortgage, kept the incoming rent of $725/month, and took out an equity loan of around $50,000 for the down payment on another 20-30 year note. This was also an option, but I figured if I only have to worry about 1 payment at a time this is better even though my currenter is pretty good about making all her payments. So now I will have to mobile home park mortgages. My first park in Savannah is getting there. We are finally getting some better renters and hopefully I will get it fully rented earning around $2000/month which is my goal. As for the second park my goal is to keep the gross at around $4500. After all bills I want to be earning at least a net profit of $24,000 year. So no matter what I’ll have a decent income even if I have not made consistant money in the stock market. I think my goal now is to just pay off my real estate so the cashflow will get higher.

As for the stock market. Well I’m all in with $1000 as soon as I find the right play.


November 2007 – an exception to a bullish year – market crashing

Well, my sister is right for once. She is very right indeed. I’ve read a lot of books and well wasn’t really watching ALL the charts just the my industry charts on tech. I have an icky feeling that we will see Apple (AAPL @ $172) and Research In Motion (RIMM @ $112) fall to august 2007 lows again. So AAPL could go as low as $120’s. This is scary but true. All of my Qcharts are flipping over on the big charts (weekly and daily). Next week we may see a little run, but 2007 is going to be an exception then that means stocks should fall even hard through the fall months. Everything is in play credit problems, real estate sales dropping, oil rising, the dollar weakening, oh and yeah all stock charts showing a bust. I probably should of been playing closer attention to the big dogs Dow Jones and Nasdaq + futures. Sometimes it just really sucks working a lot because you don’t give yourself fully to what could cost you a lot of money, which it has. I was playing Microsoft (MSFT @ 34.40) and AAPL @ 172 November 07 calls way out of the money expecting a strong run being a volatile year and going into bullish seasons. What I didn’t take into account was what the big market was doing which is going down. So now this minor, yet huge, error has cost me over $20,000 in losses in a rather very short time period of a week. I was joking with my sister and her husband, “do you know what can kill an erection? a $20,000 dollar loss in a few days”. At least I thought it was funny and so did they.

I suppose it is good I can laugh about losing so much money, especially when it is the only money I’ve got. I think to myself I do have next year to try again, build up some cash, and start trading. Maybe one day I’ll get this professional trader thing down. I still definitely have no discipline. So my next plan will be building a trading plan on having no discipline. Sounds whack right? Maybe I can make a style so I can still be safe trading with still a lack of discipline. I think thought long-term I will go broke if I don’t gain some skills. I’ve been getting better at selling at a loss even a big loss and getting out. As for my AAPL and MSFT nov calls that expire next week (5 more trading days) well my account is whiped so if there is a 2 day rally I plan to sell out profitably or not.

November 2007 is definitely an exception. It sure had me fooled. I don’t care what Jim Crammer says the market is going down further before it has another big run. My taxes are going to kill me this year. Plus now I don’t have the money to pay off my car, money to pay off my mobile note that I was given the chance to pay $35,000 for which is worth $80,000 and huge saving. I suppose when opportunity knocks and you don’t have the money you definitely beat yourself up a little bit subconciously.

There is no praying or hoping in the stock market. The picture and information is there. It is about calculating and making wise decisions on what is happening in the market. I was really wrong about a bullish November and I take full responsibility for my loss because I wasn’t looking at the “big picture”.

well cheers to 2008 I guess. I guess if I had money Puts right now would of been a fabulous choice.