Looks like a short-term pull back in stock prices is coming
I’ve been reading two books on interviewing successful traders “Market Wizards and New Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager”. They talk a lot about the 1987 October crash and 1930’s crash. Although I don’t feel a terrible crash is about to happen I do feel for technical reasons a pull back will happen before November 2006. On every chart I look at all MACD, STOCKRSI, and DMI are flipping over to the downside with short-term downtrends showing. Most investors are worried during this time period just because of its history and earnings season kicking off again. So far it seems 50/50 on positive earnings. Some stocks like AMD and CAT have been taking huge hits from the market. I read many times of these successful traders that they will not go through holding a position through a big report. I am starting to see why more and more. Although I just went through Apple Computers earnings I felt pretty confident and went through with a small position. Lately I’ve been trading like a big hitter with buying a couple hundred contracts on a company. I’m starting to get nervous and a bit paranoid about this. I know not to but I started adding to my position bigger and bigger and feel I have the time to wait through the ups and downs. The two stocks I’m loaded on right now are AMAT, MSO, and GRMN. If I am 100% wrong half of my portfolio I have builded up to $13,000 could be whiped out within 2 months. Knowing myself I make very risky bold moves, which in return will either build on my confidence and strength or rip me apart. You can call it daring or you can call it insane. I’m not afraid of the market, but I feel recently I have been stupid with my built up profits. There is no “hoping” as I hear my mom saying plenty of times. Either you are right or wrong and the market is going to go where it wants to go not where you want it to go. What I do know is that I’ve been keeping my money and its profits when I just wait for the stocks to move where I believe the direction it will keep going. =D
This coming week should show a lot of selling and then near beginning of November a lot of buying like a bullish market. If I am wrong my positions will be worth nothing. What I do know is that Garmin’s (GRMN) earnings will be coming soon with Martha Steward Living (MSO). I am going through earnings because I feel confidently both companies will come out positive with increase prices after earnings. I’ll write more then…
This entry was posted on October 22, 2006 by Paul. It was filed under stocks, trading stock options .
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